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It’s somewhat early in the season, but the NFC South (but not the Carolina Panthers) has been anything but its usual moribund division.

The sector has the spotlight all to itself Thursday night in Dixie as the division-leading 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 2-2 Atlanta Falcons.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Defending-champ Tampa Bay rebounded off an ugly home loss to the Denver Broncos to manhandle the Philadelphia Eagles, 33-16, this past Sunday. It was the Bucs jumping out to an early 24-0 lead in this playoff rematch while the shorthanded and sloppy Eagles subsequently never threatened.

Atlanta’s lost one, won one, then lost one, won one to begin the season. Despite not scoring a touchdown on offense. Atlanta ended with a 26-24 victory over the visiting New Orleans Saints last Sunday after Younghoe Koo nailed a career-best 58-yard field goal in the waning seconds.

Eyes will be on the quarterbacks, as the Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield (984 passing yards, eight touchdowns [second to Vikings’ Sam Darnold], two interceptions) opposes Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins (864 passing yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions). Cousins hasn’t matched his previous (Washington, Minnesota) successes while working back after a torn Achilles.

It’s Atlanta as a 2½-point favorite (total at 42½), according to NFL odds (against which the teams have split the last 10). 

This is the 62nd all-time meeting between the foes dating to 1977, with the Bucs leading, 31-30. 

The Next Brady?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Admittedly, that headline is a misleading one. Baker Mayfield is quite a few Super Bowl wins shy in any comparison with Tom Brady. 

The last of Brady’s seven titles came in Tampa Bay, and that’s the feat Mayfield hopes to duplicate. Atop the division at 3-1, the Bucs aim to go deeper in the postseason than last season’s second round.

Wideout Mike Evans became the franchise’s all-time scoring leader (adios, Martin Gramatica) while Mayfield threw two touchdown passes (adding one ground touchdown) against the Eagles. Defensively, Tampa Bay sacked Jalen Hurts a half-dozen times.     

Allgeier in ATL

Though Bijan Robinson is supposed to be the Atlanta Falcons’ franchise running back, it’s Tyler Allgeier who has been more efficient over the last two weeks.

In last Sunday’s last-second win over the New Orleans Saints, Allgeier finished 60 yards on eight carries. Robinson ended with seven rushes (28 yards). Lest one forget Allgeier was a 1,000-yard rookie rusher in 2022.

Robinson’s 16 receptions make him a big part of Atlanta’s passing game, but he hasn’t busted the big ground gains. Robinson had just 31 yards (16 carries) in a Week 3 loss to Kansas City.

Allgeier needs more touches if the Falcons are to be effective.  

Points Will Prevail

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins Photo by: USA Today

The two favorites to win the NFC South are priced at 8-5 (+160. Atlanta) and 19-10 (+190, Tampa Bay), as per NFL division odds.

Both these defenses can be had, especially with the ground games. 

Defenses surrender 131½ (Tampa Bay) and 145½ (Atlanta) rushing yards per game, so no mystery that both sides figure to exploit that

Also, each side has been somewhat porous with points, right around 20 per game this season.

If Baker Mayfield is able to hang in the pocket, he will find friends down the field. The offensive line is giving him time. Rookie back Bucky Irving scored his first pro touchdowns against Philly last Sunday. He’s averaging nearly six yards per carry in his three games. 

Conversely, Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson can excel against a suspect Bucs’ defense against the run.

It’s neither the Buccaneers nor the Falcons who get our endorsement. Rather, we’re looking at the total. Go over here.