Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs had a tough loss in overtime in Atlanta, 36-30, and fell to 3-2 on the season. Tampa Bay finishes a two-game divisional road trip in New Orleans against a Saints team that has lost three straight, including a 26-13 defeat in Kansas City on Monday Night Football.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs ILBs K.J. Britt and Lavonte David – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Tampa Bay should be angry over letting the game at Atlanta slip through the team’s fingers. The Bucs had chances to win that game on both offense and defense and improve to 4-1. The last time the Bucs lost they had a nice bounce-back win, and will be looking to do the same this week. The team escaped the path of Hurricane Milton on Tuesday and headed up to New Orleans to begin preparations out of harm’s way and without the distraction of the storm.

The Bucs were banged up and fatigued on Thursday night after playing in a very hot and humid game against the Eagles the previous Sunday. The defense couldn’t get off the field all night, and the offense ran out of gas in the second half, scoring just two field goals after putting 24 points on the scoreboard in the second half. Now the Bucs have 10 days to rest, recover, rehab and prepare for a very important game at New Orleans.

There is a chance that several Bucs players could be returning to action this Sunday including the likes of right tackle Luke Goedeke, wide receiver Trey Palmer, defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan might be in play too if his hamstring heals in time. Those reinforcements would be a welcome sight on Sunday in New Orleans.

What’s At Stake For The Saints

Saints QB Derek Carr – Photo by: USA Today

New Orleans is reeling, coming off its third straight loss after a 2-0 start in which the team averaged 45.5 points per game. In each of the last three games the Saints’ scoring average has fallen to just 16.3 points per game. To make matters worse, the Saints will have to play a divisional game on a short week, coming home from Arrowhead early Tuesday morning.

And they will have to play against the Bucs without starting quarterback Derek Carr, who injured his oblique muscle late in the loss to the Chiefs and was unable to return. Carr has thrown for 989 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 70.3% of his passes. With Carr out, the Saints will have to play rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, a fifth-round pick in this year’s draft or  second-year quarterback Jake Haener, who has only played in spot duty this season and has completed 2-of-8 passes for 17 yards with most of that scant production coming at the end of the game in Kansas City.

The Saints are a very banged up team outside of just Carr. Starting center Erik McCoy and backup center Shane Lemieux are on injured reserve and guard Cesar Ruiz, right tackle Ryan Ramcyzk, defensive end Payton Turner and linebackers Pete Werner and Willie Gay all missed the Chiefs game due to injuries. Safety Will Harris pulled a hamstring against Kansas City and did not return. New Orleans already has a divisional win against Carolina and a divisional loss at Atlanta, but the Saints can’t really afford to lose a fourth straight game for morale’s sake, and drop to 1-2 in the NFC South. It’s still early in the season, but this feels like a must-win game for the Saints and they’ll come out desperate and give the Bucs their best effort.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs DT Logan Hall – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay must slow down running back Alvin Kamara, who is having a career resurgence this season, and not let inexperienced quarterback Jake Haener or rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler beat the team in his first NFL start as he plays for the injured Derek Carr. Todd Bowles usually has his defense ready t0 play against rookie quarterbacks, but the team came out flat and unprepared for first-round pick Bo Nix is a 26-7 loss at home to Denver in Week 3. Bowles’ reputation would take a tremendous blow if he lets Haener rise to the occasion and beat his defense.

Tampa Bay’s pass rush has taken a big step forward over the last two weeks with a combined 10 sacks and over 50 pressures. The defense needs to continue to put pressure on the either Haener or Rattler. Both have some mobility and will scramble when the opportunity presents itself. Tampa Bay needs to maintain its discipline and pass rush lanes and certainly cover better than the defense did in Atlanta when Kirk Cousins ripped the Bucs for 509 passing yards, including more than 300 yards in the middle of the field. Perhaps more importantly, the Bucs need to play more man and tighten up their coverage.

Offensively, the Bucs learned a valuable lesson about the perils of playing too conservatively and taking their foot off the gas – especially rookie offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Baker Mayfield needs to continue to put touchdowns on the board and avoid turnovers. The good news is that Tampa Bay is scoring 25 points per game and has three games with 30 points or more in the first five games of the season. Even the team’s once dead ground game seems alive, averaging 111 yards per week, which ranks 18th. Coen needs to continue to mix up the play-calling and keep opponents guessing – and finish the game with touchdowns, not field goals.

The Saints Win If…

Saints QB Jake Haener – Photo by: USA Today

The Saints need Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener to do his best Bo Nix performance and play incredibly well against Todd Bowles’ defense. If Bowles has his defense come out in soft zone coverage with great regularity it could allow either the rookie Rattler or the inexperienced Haener to find an early groove and play comfortably. The Saints passing game likes to take deep shots to Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave. That means the banged up Saints offensive line has to hold up in pass protection and allow for those routes to develop downfield.

But this might be a game where new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak takes advantage of the blueprint on how to beat the Bucs defense that was laid out by Kirk Cousins in Atlanta and attack the middle of the field. Tight end Juwan Johnson had a big day the last time he played the Bucs with eight catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. Fellow tight end Foster Moreau also a had a touchdown in Kansas City, and Taysom Hill could return. Alvin Kamara looks like he turned back time and is deadly running the ball and catching it and has six total touchdowns (five rushing, one receiving) through five games.

Defensively, New Orleans needs to create some turnovers and really get after Baker Mayfield and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. The Saints secondary must also be up to the challenge of slowing down both Mike Evans outside and Chris Godwin in the slot. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore and nickelback Alontae Taylor will be charged with that responsibility, respectively. Dennis Allen has done a great job of stifling the Bucs offense in years past and he must once again dial up a great plan for the Saints to end their three-game losing streak.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Chris Godwin vs. Saints NCB Alontae Taylor

Bucs WR Chris Godwin and Saints NCB Alontae Taylor – Photo by: USA Today

With apologies to Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans and Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore, the best matchup in this game between a pass catcher and a defensive back may actually be slot receiver Chris Godwin versus Saints nickelback Alontae Taylor. While this matchup isn’t as emotionally charged as the ongoing, chippy feud between Evans and Lattimore, this will still be a tough, physical affair in the middle of the field.

Godwin is a physical receiver both as a blocker and as a pass catcher. He’s off to a great start to his contract year, leading the team with 32 catches for 386 yards and three touchdowns after scoring only two receiving TDs last year. Godwin is the engine that makes this Bucs offense go. He’s playing the Cooper Kupp role in Liam Coen’s Rams-based offense, and playing it well.

Taylor is really coming into his own in his third season. Like Godwin, Taylor is a very physical player who will bring the lumber when making hits in coverage and in run support. The former second-round pick really brings some attitude and additional toughness to the Saints secondary. He leads the team with 3.5 sacks blitzing from the slot and already has four pass breakups and two forced fumbles. The winner of this matchup could decide the outcome of Sunday’s game.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Pass Rush vs. Saints Offensive Line

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Saints QB Derek Carr – Photo by: USA Today

New Orleans wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are a formidable one-two punch due to their deep speed. Tight end Juwan Johnson has hurt the Bucs across the middle before. Running back Alvin Kamara always poses a threat running the ball and on screens out of the backfield. But this game will be won in the trenches and likely on third down.

The Saints offensive line is banged up without starting right tackle Ryan Ramcyzk, starting center Erik McCoy and possibly starting guard Cesar Ruiz. Yet New Orleans offensive line only allowed Derek Carr to be sacked just once on Monday night and did an effective job of double-teaming game-wrecker Chris Jones. Carr and Jake Haener were pressured though, and Carr’s oblique injury happened while getting hit on a blitz. Tampa Bay’s pass rush is starting to really hum, and New Orleans will need to be up for the challenge.

Backup defensive tackle Logan Hall has three sacks in the last two games and leads the team, followed by defensive tackle Vita Vea, who has had a sack in each of the last two weeks. The Bucs need more pressure from Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, and for Yaya Diaby to convert some of his pressures into sacks. Diaby has a team-high 24 pressures, which ranks in the Top 10 around the league. Tampa Bay can’t let either Carr or Haener get comfortable from the start. That’s what has happened in losses to Kirk Cousins and Bo Nix.