The Bucs’ 2022 draft class is proving to be a fruitful collection for general manager Jason Licht. Yes Logan Hall, the team’s first selection that year and picked 33rd overall, hasn’t panned out to be the consistently penetrating pass rusher the team had hoped he would be. But nor has he been a completely unplayable bust either. Hall is a high effort player who provides some value as a depth piece on a playoff team. He hasn’t been worth his draft slot, but he will most likely stick in the league past his first contract.

Behind Hall, three later round selections have stepped up over the past year, and with their play this year are making a case for an early extension that would net them the big payday every player hopes for while also providing the Bucs with some savings on early extensions rather than allowing an ever-elevating salary cap to cost them bigger price tags in 2026.

RT Luke Goedeke

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

After his stellar sophomore campaign back in his natural position we here at Pewter Report were early to suggest that Luke Goedeke may be an early extension candidate. Finding one good tackle is hard for NFL teams. Finding two is damn near impossible. So, for general manager Jason Licht to do so in the span of three drafts is a coup of some force. The tackle market experienced a major jump this past offseason with Penei Sewell and then Wirfs himself re-setting it by 12.5% in the end.

Getting Goedeke locked in a year early could result in $2-4 million in savings per year for the Bucs. Goedeke has played in four games this year after a concussion cost him Weeks 2-5. Since coming back, he has knocked the rust off and seems to be rounding into similar form that he burst onto the scene with in 2022. He has allowed just six pressures in 190 pass blocking snaps, good for a 3.2% pressure rate allowed.

Goedeke’s Pro Football Focus pass block efficiency rate is 98.0. That is up from the 96.6 mark he posted last year. And Goedeke has been a contributor to a Bucs run game that is all of a sudden, a top 10 unit in the NFL.

Goedeke’s play should have him flirting with a $20 million per year pay day. Spencer Brown of the Buffalo Bills just signed an early extension and here is how Goedeke’s 2024 season is lining up with Brown’s 2023.

TE Cade Otton

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

Entering this season Cade Otton had showed himself to be a low-end starting option. His blocking was inconsistent and his pass catching productivity was towards the bottom of most lists, whether that be yards per route run, catch rate or overall stats.

But Otton is in the midst of a breakout season. Aided by an increased role in the offense and genuinely improved play as both a pass catcher and as a blocker, Otton is now poised to break the Top 10 of highest paid tight ends in the game. At his current pace Otton will finish 2024 with a three-year total of 213 targets, 146 catches, 1,406 receiving yards, 690 yards after catch and 70 first downs.

Compare that to Bears tight end Cole Kmet, who signed a four-year, $50 million contract in 2023. In the three years leading up to that contract, Kmet totaled 200 targets, 138 receptions, 1,399 yards, 680 yards after catch and 68 first downs.

Those are eerily similar totals. Assuming the 2025 salary cap is $275 million if you were to draw a thru-line from Kmet’s $12.5 million APY (average per year) Otton would command a $13.5 million APY if he were to successfully argue Kmet as a comp. But Kmet’s 2023 deal had an interesting underlying factor that caused the Bears tight end to get more money than most were expecting. That year the Bears were in danger of not hitting the NFL’s three-year cash spending minimum. So, he got an inflated deal for his overall value.

But Kmet is a former second-rounder whereas Otton is a Day 3 pick. Currently the highest average salary by a former Day 3 pick tight end not named George Kittle is Dalton Schultz at $12 million APY. It is conceivable that Otton would come in at a similar number. But I foresee a major jump in a tight end market that has been relatively stagnant in recent years. And if that happens Otton will likely be seeking a $14 million APY.

CB Zyon McCollum

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum – Photo by: USA Today

No player on the Bucs has driven their value up more this year than cornerback Zyon McCollum. On a defense that has largely underachieved, McCollum has been a rare bright spot. Per Pro Football Focus, McCollum has been targeted 36 times in coverage this season, allowing just 17 catches for 286 yards over 329 coverage snaps. That equates to a 47.2% catch rate allowed and 0.87 yards per coverage rep. His seven forced incompletions are tied for sixth in the NFL and his 18.4 snaps per reception is seventh.

McCollum is playing this year like a legitimate shutdown tier-one corner. After years of stagnation, those guys are starting to get paid upwards of $24 million per year. But McCollum has several factors working against his ability to join Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Terrell, Jaire Alexander and Pat Surtain II as corners making over $20 million per year.

To begin with, the Bucs just paid Antoine Winfield Jr. $21.025 million per year, making him the highest paid defensive back in league history. That moniker did not last long as Surtain and Ramsey topped his APY soon after, but it was still a significant investment made very recently.

Tampa Bay made that investment in Winfield Jr. after he performed at an extremely high level for four straight years. I struggle to find a world where they go back to the negotiating table one year after securing that deal with Winfield and dishing out a bigger deal to McCollum for one elite year of play. On top of that, McCollum is a former fifth-round pick. Agree with it or not, draft pedigree factors into second contract negotiations. Of the 10 highest paid cornerbacks in the NFL, just L’Jarius Sneed is a Day 3 pick.

With those three factors working against McCollum, his closest contractual comp is ironically enough Jamel Dean’s 2023 deal. With an APY of 5.78% of the salary cap at signing, McCollum’s 2025 adjustment would have him with an APY of right around $16 million. I think that represents the low end of McCollum’s likely range if his play continues for the rest of the season as he has thus far this year. Taking an average of three closest comps, Dean, Alexander’s 2022 contract, and Desmond Trufant’s 2020 deal, would place McCollum’s value at $19.125 million per year.

This number would work on several fronts. First, it would keep McCollum’s APY a healthy distance from Winfield Jr.’s record-setting 2024 deal. Second, it would have him clear Snead by the thinnest of margins. Sneed’s recent contract with the Titans was for an average of $19.1 million per year. McCollum could then have the distinction of being the highest-paid former Day 3 pick cornerback in league history.

So Which Bucs Player Might Get An Extension First?

Bucs GM Jason Licht and director of football administration Mike Greenberg – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are unlikely to extend all three of these players next year. The team does not have many pending free agents that will command big money. Wide receiver Chris Godwin is really the only player not under contract for 2025 who will need a large deal. He will most certainly be a priority for the Bucs.

But after re-securing his services I anticipate the team will look to lock up at least one and maybe two of these three players. Luke Goedeke is the most likely candidate in my opinion as general manager Jason Licht has shown trench play to be an area of the roster he is most interested in investing in – if Goedeke doesn’t suffer another concussion this year and it looks like his early-season concussion is an isolated incident.

Due to the fickleness of play at the cornerback position from year-to-year Zyon McCollum seems to be the least likely to get an early deal. But there is going to be a huge market shift at cornerback in the upcoming offseason. It started just three months ago with Terrell, Surtain II and Ramsey and will undoubtedly continue next year with Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley Jr.

Those contracts will fundamentally shift the market and give a boost to McCollum’s next deal. The Bucs make roll the dice by asking McCollum to prove he can sustain this level of play for more than a single season.

Cade Otton’s chances of getting an early extension lie somewhere in between his draft mates. With tight end being one of the less expensive positions, and with a market reset likely hitting as soon as 2025, I could see the Bucs trying to work out an early deal for him along with Goedeke. He has the longest track record of the three to make the team feel good about a long-term pact and has been a workhorse playing over 90% of the team’s snaps while playing in every game since entering the season.

Time will tell which of these players will get an early deal, but all three have made a strong case to be considered.