INTRO: The Bucs must make a stand on Sunday. Tampa Bay’s slim playoff hopes become even slimmer with a loss to San Francisco. In order to boost the Bucs’ playoff chances they must end their three-game losing streak and head into the much-needed bye week with a 5-5 record. A 4-6 record could mean disaster for Tampa Bay. The Bucs will need another big game from tight end Cade Otton, who I was wrong about, and for rookie receiver Jalen McMillan to grow up. Enjoy this week’s SR’s Fab 5!

FAB 1. Bucs’ Push For The Playoffs Must Begin NOW

I’m calling Sunday’s game against the 49ers a must-win game for the Bucs if this team has any chance of making the playoffs this year. This season is not like it was in 2023 when Tampa Bay was miraculously able to rebound from a 4-7 start to a 9-8 finish thanks to a 5-1 hot streak over the remaining six games.

The Bucs find themselves in familiar territory at 4-5, and they could be 4-6 if the team loses its fourth straight game and falls to the 49ers on Sunday. But the NFC South landscape has really changed this year.

Last year, the Bucs were only down one game in the division after the first 10 games of the 2023 campaign.

2023 NFC South Standings – Through 10 Games

Saints 5-5 (1-1)
Falcons 4-6 (2-0)
Bucs 4-6 (1-1)
Panthers 1-9 (0-2)

Now Tampa Bay is essentially three games behind Atlanta – two games plus the fact that the Falcons own the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of a season sweep. That means the Bucs would need to finish with one more win than the Falcons to win a fourth straight NFC South title this year.

2024 NFC South Standings – Through 10 Games

Falcons 6-3 (4-0)
Bucs 4-5 (1-2)
Panthers 2-7 (1-2)
Saints 2-7 (1-3)

Simply put, the Bucs can’t afford to lose too many more games because of the hole they’ve put themselves in, especially with the 6-3 Falcons having a 4-0 record in the division. If Atlanta finishes with nine wins, Tampa Bay will need 10 to win the NFC South. If the Falcons win 10 games, the Bucs will need to win 11 to retain divisional supremacy and host a Wild Card game again.

A win against the 49ers is a needed step in that direction.

“I know that we all hate losing, and that’s something we talked about in the locker room after, you know, don’t get used to this,” Bucs tight end Cade Otton said. “We know we’re capable of playing at a high level. We know we can beat the best teams in the league, and we see ourselves as being up there. We just have to prove it – we have to find ways to win. There’s an urgency there, but we’re not breaking apart or anything. We’re not pointing fingers. We’re just going back to work and doing anything we can to find a way to win.”

FAB 2. A Victory Over 49ers Helps Bucs’ Pursuit Of A Wild Card Spot

Despite a 4-5 record, three of the Bucs’ five losses have come against AFC teams like the Broncos, Ravens and Chiefs. Tampa Bay does have a 4-2 record in the NFC, which is quite good, but the team really needs to win all six NFC games down the stretch, including Sunday’s game against San Francisco to help its chances of claiming one of three Wild Card playoff spots.

Here is a look at the current NFC playoff contenders.

Current NFC Division Leaders

East: Commanders 7-2
West: Cardinals 5-4
North: Lions 7-1
South: Falcons 6-3

There are currently eight teams with four wins or more vying for three Wild Card spots in the NFC. The good news for the Bucs is that that Tampa Bay has head-to-head wins over Washington, Philadelphia and Detroit from the first month of the season.

Current NFC Wild Card Contenders

Vikings 6-2
Eagles 6-2
Packers 6-3
Bears 4-4
Rams 4-4
49ers 4-4
Bucs 4-5
Seahawks 4-5

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

So, if the Bucs are tied with any of those three teams for a playoff spot, they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Falcons, of course, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over the Bucs due to their season sweep of Tampa Bay this season.

That’s why Sunday’s game against the 49ers is so huge for Todd Bowles’ troops. Not only is it the possibility of gaining a head-to-head win against a team that Tampa Bay could be in direct competition with for a Wild Card spot, but it would also be an opportunity to secure another NFC win in case the tiebreaker formula comes down to conference wins between the Bucs and another NFC team.

And a victory over the 49ers also ends a three-game losing streak, gives Tampa Bay some revenge for the two losses in San Francisco over the past two years, gets the Bucs back to .500, and provides a morale boost heading into the bye week.

In case you’re wondering, here is the tie-breaker formula for Wild Card Spots.

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory in all games.
5. Strength of schedule in all games.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

FAB 3. Is A Fourth-Straight NFC South Title Out Of Bucs’ Reach?

At 4-5 the Bucs are not mathematically out of winning the NFC South this year, but are two games behind the 6-3 Falcons. The margin is essentially three games due to the fact that Atlanta has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay.

So how much ground can the Bucs make up down the stretch, and how much help can Tampa Bay hope to get from Atlanta? Let’s take a look.

Bucs’ Remaining 2024 Schedule

Week 10 vs. 49ers 4-4
Week 11 BYE
Week 12 at Giants 2-7
Week 13 at Panthers 2-7
Week 14 vs. Raiders 2-7
Week 15 at Chargers 5-3
Week 16 at Cowboys 3-5
Week 17 vs. Panthers 2-7
Week 18 vs. Saints 2-7

When you look at this schedule how many wins do you see? What’s a realistic number? Can the Bucs go 7-1 and finish 11-6? Is finishing 6-2 down the stretch with a 10-7 record enough to get into the playoffs this year? Will Tampa Bay own enough tiebreakers?

There are six teams left on Tampa Bay’s schedule with losing records, only one team with a winning record in Los Angeles, and one team with a .500 record in San Francisco. The Bucs need to make up three games and finish with one more win than the Falcons.

Let’s examine what’s left for Atlanta this season.

Falcons’ Remaining 2024 Schedule

Week 10 at Saints 2-7
Week 11 at Broncos 5-4
Week 12 BYE
Week 13 vs. Chargers 5-3
Week 14 at Vikings 6-2
Week 15 at Raiders 2-7
Week 16 vs. Giants 2-7
Week 17 at Commanders 7-2
Week 18 vs. Panthers 2-7

Falcons WR Darnell Mooney and Bucs CB Tyrek Funderburk and ILB K.J. Britt – Photo by: USA Today

The Falcons have four games left against teams with winning records. Suppose Atlanta loses all four of those games and finishes 10-7. The Falcons would still have the tiebreaker advantage over a 10-7 Bucs team – should Tampa Bay finish 6-2 down the stretch.

So even if the Falcons finish 4-4, it would require the Bucs to finish 7-1 to get to 11-6, which would win the NFC South for Tampa Bay once again. That is a Herculean feat I am not sure this Bucs team is built for.

Remember that the Bucs have only won two games in a row just once in the season, and that was the team’s 2-0 start with wins over the Commanders and Lions. Finishing 7-1 would require at least a pair of three-game winning streaks – three wins, a loss, and then three more wins.

Should the Bucs lose to the 49ers on Sunday, Tampa Bay would have to win seven straight games to finish 11-6 and capture the NFC South crown again. Do you think this injury-riddled Bucs team that is surrendering nearly 30 points per game is capable of that?

Do you think that the injury bug is going to suddenly stop biting the Bucs and that Todd Bowles’ defense is going to magically become good overnight?

If you are pointing to the strong finishes that Tampa Bay has had over the past two years to win the NFC South in Week 17 (2022) and Week 18 (2023) as evidence that the team can “do it again,” here is the Bucs’ record over the final eight games of each season.

Bucs’ Finish In 2022: 4-4 (8-9 record)
Bucs’ Finish In 2023: 5-3 (9-8 record)

So while the Bucs did win five of their last six games last year, the reality is that they only won five of their last eight. And there are eight games left this season.

I’m not sure that this year’s banged up Bucs have it in them to finish the season 7-1. A loss to the 49ers all but ends the team’s hopes of winning the division. A win, and there’s still a flicker of a chance – but it might have to coincide with an epic collapse by the Falcons down the stretch.

FAB 4. Cade Otton Is Making Me A Believer

There is a very good chance that Bucs tight end Cade Otton establishes new career highs for the season on Sunday against the 49ers. Otton is coming off a career season in which he caught 47 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns in 2023.

The third-year pro enters Week 10 with 44 receptions for 421 yards and four touchdowns.

And there are seven games left after the bye week, too.

When factoring in his season numbers, Otton is on pace to record 83 catches for 795 yards and seven touchdowns. But Otton is on a different pace right now as he’s become Baker Mayfield’s primary weapon now that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been sidelined due to injuries.

Cade Otton’s 2024 Production

Weeks 1-6: 19 catches for 163 yards, 1 TD
Week 7: 8 catches for 100 yards
Week 8: 9 catches for 81 yards, 2 TDs
Week 9: 8 catches for 77 yards, 1 TD

Bucs TE Cade Otton and Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Photo by: USA Today

Using his production over the last three weeks where he has averaged eight catches for 86 yards and one touchdown, Otton is on pace to finish with 66 receptions for 688 yards and eight TDs over the final eight games of the season.

Add in that projected finish to his current numbers and Otton would wind up with an astounding 110 receptions for 1,109 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Mike Evans’ return after the bye week will certainly cut into Otton’s targets and production, so a 1,000-yard season doesn’t seem realistic. But even at half of Otton’s projected numbers down the stretch, the tight end would finish with 77 receptions for 975 yards and eight touchdowns.

Otton said prior to the season that one of his goals was to be a Pro Bowl tight end this year. Getting that type of production would certainly put him in the conversation, but Otton is more focused on helping this team get to the playoffs rather than him getting in the Pro Bowl.

“I don’t [track the stats] too much, and I know my production has been up the past few weeks,” Otton said. “But the biggest thing I go back to is the win-loss column, and I’m definitely not satisfied with where we’ve been the last three weeks. Like I said, we’re going to do anything we can to change that around. If my production goes down and we win, I’ll be much happier.”

I said a couple of weeks ago in a previous SR’s Fab 5 that a playmaking tight end is what is missing from Liam Coen’s offense. Otton is proving to be a playmaking tight end for sure, and he’s changing my mind about him as a player.

No one is going to compare Otton to a more dynamic tight end like future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski. If Otton has a fault, it’s that he’s only averaging 9.6 yards per catch this year, which is actually in line with his career average.

Bucs TE Cade Otton and former TE Cam Brate – Photo by: USA Today

But Otton is proving that he is becoming a Cam Brate-caliber tight end that can really contribute in the passing game. Brate finished his nine-year career in Tampa Bay in 2022 with a career average of 10.5 yards per catch along with 33 touchdowns.

“He’s got a knack for the game – he just knows the game,” Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen said about Otton. “He has a great feel. So many of those guys would just say that he’s a football player. That’s Cade and you can’t say that about everybody. He just has that ability.

“Sometimes people look at that as a knock – maybe they’re not as fast or as quick or as strong or can jump as high. Being a football player is a darn good thing and that’s what he is. He’s tough as nails, he’s smart as heck, and I’d love for my son to grow up to be Cade Otton. That’s the kind of guy that he is.”

One thing is for sure over the last three games, Otton has proven that he’s capable of being a focal point on offense rather than just a complementary piece. Having Evans return to action after the bye week should allow Otton to be even more effective with two legit weapons on the field again in Tampa Bay.

“Seeing the way Mike and Chris have operated my whole time here, I just try and step up in their place,” Otton said. “Obviously, they’re a huge part of our offense and will be whenever they come back, but I think just as a group, we really challenged ourselves, and Coach Coen challenged us to, as a collective, raise our game. Personally, I wanted to do that, and also as a group, I think we’re working hard to do that.”

FAB 5. Jalen McMillan Needs To Become A Pro

Behind the scenes, the Bucs are frustrated with rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan. The team invested a third-round pick in the weapon from Washington, and expected him to develop into the team’s No. 3 receiver this year after an inconsistent rookie season from Trey Palmer, a sixth-round selection, in 2023.

Bucs WRs Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

McMillan had a great start to training camp and performed well in the preseason. After dropping a catchable ball in a Week 1 win over Washington, McMillan hauled in a touchdown pass from Baker Mayfield versus the Commanders for his first career reception.

But since then, it’s been a rocky road for McMillan. He missed Weeks 4-5 with a hamstring injury and then he had the hamstring injury flare up in the final practice before the Chiefs game in Week 9. I’ve heard some whispers that McMillan isn’t doing his part in either preventative conditioning or the necessary rehab to get past his hamstring injury.

Or he’s not showing the requisite toughness needed to be an NFL professional.

Mike Evans got himself ready to play on Monday night against Baltimore, but suffered a setback with his hamstring injury after catching a touchdown. Still, he put his body on the line for his team.

Fellow veteran Sterling Shepard has been playing through a hamstring injury he suffered against the Falcons in Week 8 and caught four passes for 48 yards and had two end-arounds for 21 yards while McMillan sat out the Monday Night Football game. Shepard has missed both practices this week as he’s still dealing with his hamstring injury, but watch him still go out and play against the 49ers.

And that is essentially what Mayfield had to say about McMillan’s absence in Kansas City.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and WRs Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan – Photo by: USA Today

“I found out in the locker room when we got here, or after he did the workout,” Mayfield said. “We had some plays designed for him. That’s part of being a pro, you’ve got to take care of your body. Sometimes unfortunate things happen but you’ve got to do everything you can to get ready to play for this team.”

Mayfield’s words speak volumes – and back up everything I’ve heard behind the scenes.

Tampa Bay is not giving up on McMillan, who has underwhelmed with 10 catches for 109 yards and one touchdown thus far. But it’s obvious that he has some growing up to do. He’s missed both practices this week, and given his trend, the guess here is that he won’t be available against the 49ers.

The fact that McMillan is not learning from the likes of veterans such as Evans, Shepard and Chris Godwin in the receivers room is startling, though. And it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward during McMillan’s Bucs career.

It’s one thing that McMillan hasn’t developed into the Bucs’ No. 3 wide receiver yet. It’s another thing that he’s missed three games due to not being prepared to play – and possibly a fourth.