Coming into Week 10, the Bucs’ hopes of a fourth straight NFC South title were already on the ropes. But the situation is more dire than that, as their hopes of extending their NFC-best playoff appearance streak to five straight years is also in question.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay came into action on Sunday off the back of three straight losses. Last week’s primetime loss to Kansas City dropped the team’s record to 4-5, meaning it was firmly on the outside of the NFC playoff picture coming into the second weekend in November. In fact, the Bucs found themselves at 11th in the conference, trailing the Rams, 49ers and Bears – all at 4-4 – in pursuit of the 6-3 Packers, who entered the weekend as the No. 7 seed.

But Sunday’s game was a chance for Todd Bowles’ Bucs, as they had the 49ers in town for a game at Raymond James Stadium. A win and Tampa Bay would be right back in the mix of the NFC Wild Card race, plus it would hold the potential tiebreaker should the two teams still be fighting it out for a playoff spot down the line.

Instead of capitalizing on a big chance to turn things around and gain some ground in the playoff race (and pick up a game in the NFC South as the Falcons lost to the Saints), the Bucs lost another heartbreaker. They didn’t necessarily play well enough to win, as three missed field goals by Jake Moody was the only reason the 49ers didn’t put the game away earlier. But after getting to the 5-yard line with under a minute to go, it looked like Tampa Bay was about to improbably pull off a huge win.

But after settling for a field goal, the Bucs allowed an easy field goal drive and Moody earned some redemption with a 44-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. That meant a fourth consecutive loss for Tampa Bay, as well as a 4-6 record heading into the bye week.

The loss also further damaged the team’s chances of making a run at a fifth straight postseason appearance. Here’s what the NFC Playoff Picture looks like right now.

Where The Bucs Fall Within The NFC Playoff Picture After Week 10

49ers WR Ricky Pearsall and Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs’ loss to the 49ers certainly didn’t help their cause for cracking the postseason field. The Vikings won again, further strengthening their spot as a playoff team. They’re 7-2 after Sunday’s win over the Jaguars, meaning they’re in a good spot as the No. 5 seed. The Commanders lost to the Steelers and fell to 7-3, but even still, they’re solidly in the No. 6 spot.

Considering how many contenders there are in the NFC North, the fact that there are two playoff-caliber teams in the NFC East and a host of teams in the mix from the NFC West, it’s looking like Tampa Bay’s only shot (barring a wild season-closing run) is the NFC’s No. 7 seed. And competition for that spot is fierce.

With the Packers on a bye in Week 10, they’re still 6-3 and leading the way for the No. 7 seed. The Bucs didn’t lose a full game with Sunday’s loss, but they did drop to 2.5 games behind them for that final playoff spot.

While the 49ers are still very much in the NFC West race and only trailing the Cardinals by a half-game for the division lead, their win over the Bucs also moved them 1.5 games ahead in the pecking order for the last Wild Card spot. And if it comes down to a tiebreaker in the end, San Francisco now holds the head-to-head advantage.

The Rams play on Monday night against the Dolphins, and a win would have them and the 49ers both a half-game back of the Cardinals for the NFC West lead. Even a loss to Miami would still have Los Angeles at 4-5 and a half-game better than Tampa Bay. Regardless of who emerges as that division’s winner, the reality is that there are two more teams with more than a one-game lead on the Bucs in the Wild Card race.

Even the 4-5 Bears, who lost to the Patriots on Sunday, and the 4-5 Seahawks (on a bye) are a half-game ahead of the Bucs through Week 10. So as it stands, Tampa Bay would have to leap four teams to even be in contention with whichever team holds the No. 7 seed.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Here’s a look at the NFC Playoff Picture through Week 10:

1. Lions – 8-1 (NFC North leader)
2. Eagles – 7-2 (NFC East leader)
3. Falcons – 6-4 (NFC South leader)
4. Cardinals – 6-4 (NFC West leader)
5. Vikings – 7-2 (NFC Wild Card No. 1)
6. Commanders – 7-3 (NFC Wild Card No. 2)
7. Packers – 6-3 (NFC Wild Card No. 3)
——–In the Hunt——–
8. 49ers – 5-4
9. Rams – 4-4
10. Bears – 4-5
11. Seahawks – 4-5
12. Bucs – 4-6

That’s a tough hill to climb for the Bucs, and even though their schedule lightens up from Week 12 on, they’re very much in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019.