It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game. With a 26-23 overtime in Carolina, Tampa Bay tied Atlanta as both teams are now 6-6 following the Falcons’ 17-13 home loss to the Chargers. Atlanta currently has a half-game lead in the NFC South division due to the head-to-head tiebreaker courtesy of the season sweep of Tampa Bay.

But the Bucs won their second straight game, largely thanks to a career day from rookie running back Bucky Irving and a timely takeaway by reserve outside linebacker Anthony Nelson, who forced a fumble in overtime that was recovered by edge rusher Yaya Diaby.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. The Bucs Keep Buckying

I’ve got to give credit to Bry, one of the Pewter People in Sunday’s chat during the Pewter Report Postgame Podcast, for the headline. What a great statement.

The Bucs are riding running back Bucky Irving back to .500 with their second straight win after the bye week, a 26-23 overtime win at Carolina, while the Falcons keep Falconing, which is a term I’ve used through the years to describe Atlanta’s penchant for choking. The Falcons lost their third straight game on Sunday at home to the Chargers, 17-13.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

I’ll get to the fading Falcons in a moment, but first let’s talk about the Bucs’ rookie rushing sensation, who has energized this team and the Tampa Bay fan base.

Irving’s career-high 152-yard, one-touchdown game has been weeks in the making. After splitting carries with Rachaad White for most of the season, and with Sean Tucker in New Orleans in Week 6 when White was injured, Irving became the Bucs’ feature back on Sunday in Carolina. But the week prior to the bye in a 23-20 loss to the 49ers, Irving had 73 yards on 13 carries against a tough San Francisco defense, while White had just 31 yards on 10 carries. That’s truly when Irving began to separate himself to the coaches as the back who should be getting more carries, which is something I suggested in last week’s 2-Point Conversion.

Then after Irving rushed for a career-high 88 yards on 12 carries last week in a 30-7 win at New York over the Giants and White had 37 yards on an equal 12 carries, there was no denying that the rookie must be Tampa Bay’s top back. Not only that, but Irving had a career-long 56-yard dash versus the Giants, which matched White’s 56-yard jaunt as the Bucs’ longest run of the season.

On Sunday, Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen wisely rode the rookie all game long except for overtime where a hip injury Irving sustained on a kick return right before halftime flared up once again. It’s time for head coach Todd Bowles to take Irving off kick returns for the rest of the season now that he’s firmly established as Tampa Bay’s lead back.

Despite his ailing hip, Irving ripped off a 43-yard run late in the game to help get Tampa Bay into field goal range to increase its lead to 20-16. Irving showed incredible toughness in Carolina with a career-high 25 carries, which was 11 more than his previous high of 14 in New Orleans.

The 5-foot-9, 192-pound Irving is pound-for-pound the toughest Buccaneer on the team. But not just physically tough with his elusive, tackle-breaking and tackling-slipping style. Irving is also mentally tough.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

The 22-year-old has been through a lot in in his young life so far, having dealt with some real difficult family tragedies growing up on the tough South Side of Chicago, involving the deaths of his father, his grandmother and one of his younger brothers, who was shot and killed. Football has been his ticket out of the troubled area Irving grew up and he has the respect of the entire organization as he’s the first one in the building each morning at 5:00 a.m. to study film at get better.

Irving has now had five runs of 30 yards or more this season, and Sunday’s game at Carolina won’t be his last 100-yard game of the season. White will still get some carries to help shoulder the workload, as he did with 76 yards on 11 carries versus the Panthers, including a breakaway 38-yard run in overtime subbing for an ailing Irving, which got the Bucs in position to win the game.

But this is now Bucky Irving’s offense as he accounted for most of the Bucs’ 236 yards on the ground in Carolina. If you didn’t know that by now you will when the Raiders come to Raymond James Stadium and you hear a crowd of 50,000-plus crowd chant, “Bucky! Bucky! Bucky!” several times on Sunday.

The Bucs are making a playoff run – thanks in large part to their rookie running back.

STATEMENT 2. The Falcons Keep Falconing

Now let’s talk about the Falconing Falcons. The term “Falconing” means “choking in Atlanta.”

And wow, how Raheem Morris’ team has choked lately.

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today

After getting to 6-3, including a season sweep of the Bucs, the Falcons have lost three straight games – a 20-17 loss at New Orleans, a 38-6 drubbing at Denver and a 17-13 defeat at home to the Chargers following the bye week. Sunday’s loss to L.A. might be the most worrisome as Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions.

Cousins has now thrown six picks and zero touchdowns in the last three games. And after a start that saw him throw 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, he now has 13 interceptions on the season.

It’s remarkable too because Cousins looked virtually immortal versus Todd Bowles’ defense, throwing for a combined eight touchdowns and just one pick. Yet he is merely mortal versus other competition with nine touchdowns and 12 interceptions this year in the Falcons’ 10 other games.

Cousins and the Falcons travel to Minnesota to play his former team, the 10-2 Vikings on Sunday. Then after a Monday Night Football Game at Las Vegas against the Raiders and a home game for the New York Giants, Atlanta travels to Washington to play an 8-5 Commanders team that is making a remarkable playoff push. Then it’s a home game for the season finale against a 3-9 Panthers team that is playing better than its record indicates for head coach Dave Canales.

It’s highly probable that the Falcons could lose two or three more games before the end of the season and that the Bucs could come from behind to capture the NFC South crown for a fourth straight time. All Tampa Bay has to do is finish with one more win than Atlanta to make that happen.

It feels like the Bucs can get to 10-7 or 9-8 at worst, while the Falcons seem destined for 9-8 or perhaps even 8-9 the way they are playing. Get ready for an unlikely furious finish in the NFC South.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Should The Bucs Continue To Start Anthony Nelson At OLB?

Absolutely. When Joe Tryon-Shoyinka eventually returns from his ankle injury he should be relegated to backup status behind Anthony Nelson, who will start in his place opposite Yaya Diaby for the second straight week on Sunday. Tryon-Shoyinka has done virtually nothing this season as a starter. He has 18 tackles, two sacks and a forced fumble during his contract year, as the Bucs declined to pick up his fifth-year option in the offseason.

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: USA Today

Meanwhile, Nelson, who was Sunday’s overtime hero for the Bucs as he stripped Chuba Hubbard of the ball, which was recovered by Diaby, has been more productive as a reserve. Nelson has 19 tackles, three sacks and that key forced fumble that prevented disaster in Carolina. The sixth-year outside linebacker is a smarter, steadier and tougher player and deserves to be the starter for the rest of the season alongside Diaby.

Nelson, who is also in a contract year, missed practice on Friday as his wife gave birth to their second son, Eli. So it’s been a big week for Nelson, who will likely give the game ball he earned on Sunday in Carolina to his newborn son as his first-ever present.

Tryon-Shoyinka is a favorite of both head coach Todd Bowles and outside linebackers coach George Edwards, who I’m sure will want to start JTS again once he rehabs his injured ankle. That would be a mistake, and it speaks to how terrible of a position coach Edwards actually is. The hope here is that Bowles, who also has an affinity for Nelson and appreciates his heady play, overrules Edwards and starts Nelson.

That’s what should happen, as Nelson’s forced fumble in Carolina could save Bowles’ job.

QUESTION 2. Who Will Step Up Alongside Mike Evans For Baker Mayfield?

Who knows? The Bucs have waited over a month for someone to step up in the passing game after the team lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injuries in the loss to the Ravens in Week 7. For a minute it was tight end Cade Otton, who came through with a couple of good games for Baker Mayfield against Baltimore, Atlanta and Kansas City.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

But Otton has virtually disappeared over the last three games with 35, 30 and 20 yards receiving in each of those contests and he’s had a case of the drops. What’s even more disappointing is that veteran Sterling Shepard has 224 receiving yards in 10 games, while second-year receiver Trey Palmer has just 141 yards in 10 games. Rookie Jalen McMillan, the team’s third-round pick, has just 145 receiving yards in eight games.

Thankfully, running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White have been factors in both the passing game and the running game for Tampa Bay with 285 yards receiving and 303 yards catching the ball, respectively. But it’s very concerning that Mayfield doesn’t have another reliable go-to receiver to work with alongside Evans, who returned to action from a hamstring injury to catch eight passes for 118 yards and a touchdown in Carolina.

The less-talented Panthers actually have a better and more diverse receiving corps, and that was evident on Sunday versus the Bucs. Adam Thielen led the way with eight catches for 99 yards and a touchdown, while backup tight end Tommy Tremble had five receptions for 77 yards. Rookie receiver Xavier Legette chipped in four catches for 53 yards, while former Bucs receiver David Moore had 40 yards on five catches.

That’s the kind of ensemble effort Mayfield and the Bucs’ passing game needs moving forward. Someone needs to step up alongside Evans down the stretch.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucky Irving Will Rush For 1,000 Yards

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

Bucs rookie running back Bucky Irving has a legit chance to rush for 1,000 yards this year, especially after rushing for a career-high 152 yards on 25 carries (6.1 avg.) at Carolina on Sunday. The team’s fourth-round pick has tallied for 732 yards rushing on 133 carries (5.5 avg.) and has led the Bucs in rushing since Week 1. With five games left, Irving needs 268 yards rushing to hit 1,000 yards, which seems quite doable.

Irving needs to average 53.6 yards per game over the remaining five games to reach 1,000 yards on the season. The team’s fourth-round pick has averaged 61 yards per game this season and is on pace to finish with 1,037 yards. His 5.5-yard average is third-best in the NFL among running backs, behind only Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley (6.1 avg.) and Baltimore’s Derrick Henry (5.9 avg.) – both of whom have over 1,400 yards rushing.

Last year, Bucs running back Rachaad White fell 10 yards shy and finished with 990 yards rushing on 272 carries, averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Should Irving hit 1,000 yards he would be the first Tampa Bay running back to do so since Doug Martin topped 1,000 yards in 2015. Considering Irving is averaging 104.3 yards per game over the last three games there is a good chance he hits 1,000 yards rushing before Week 18.

PREDICTION 2. Baker Mayfield Hits 35 Touchdown Passes This Year

Panthers QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

While Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has cooled off a bit in terms of throwing touchdown passes with just two touchdowns in his last three games, I think he’s got 10 more scoring strikes in him down the stretch. Mayfield has thrown 25 touchdowns this season, including one to Mike Evans in Sunday’s 26-23 overtime win at Carolina. He’ll need to average two touchdown passes per game to reach 35, which would be the third-most in franchise history behind Tom Brady’s 43 in 2021 and 40 in 2020.

Jameis Winston is currently third on the list with 33 touchdown passes in 2019, which was his final season in Tampa Bay. Of course, Winston also threw 30 interceptions that season as well, becoming the first NFL quarterback to throw for 30 TDs and 30 INTs in the same season.

Mayfield has another big game or two in him down the stretch. He’s had seven games with multiple touchdown passes this season, including a pair of four-touchdown games in wins over Washington and New Orleans, so hitting 40 touchdowns isn’t out of the question with five games left in the season. But factoring in his three rushing scores, it seems more likely that Mayfield would hit touchdowns this year with a combination of 35 touchdown passes and five touchdown runs. He needs just 10 more via the air and two more via the ground.