With only five games left to play in the Bucs’ 2024 regular season, future Hall of Fame wide receiver Mike Evans is at risk of coming up short of the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the first time in his career. If he can’t get there, his streak of 1,000-yard receiving seasons will end at 10 seasons – one shy of tying the record of 11, held by Hall of Famer Jerry Rice.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Because of the three games he missed with a hamstring injury, Evans is behind schedule to reach the 1,000-yard mark. However, he did make up for some lost time this past Sunday by producing his first 100-yard game of the season, catching eight passes for 118 yards and a touchdown. With that performance, he now has 521 yards on the season, which is 479 shy of the 1,000-yard threshold.

If he’s going to get those 479 yards to reach 1,000 and extend his streak to a record-tying 11 seasons, Evans will need to average 95.8 yards per game over the Bucs’ final five games. It helps that he just surpassed that mark in Sunday’s 26-23 overtime win over the Panthers, but the harsh reality is that was the first time the 11th-year receiver has surpassed 95.8 yards in a game this season. He is currently averaging 57.9 yards per game over the nine contests he’s played in.

Is it impossible for Evans to catch fire down the stretch, put up some more 100-yard games and extend his streak? It definitely isn’t. This is Mike Evans we’re talking about. But it’s looking improbable, and the best offensive player in Tampa Bay history is running out of time.

Mike Evans Is More Behind Schedule Than Ever Before

There have been some close calls with Mike Evans’ 1,000-yard season streak in the past. He finished with just 1,001 yards in 2017 and barely got over the 1,000-yard mark in 2020, getting to 1,006 before leaving the season finale early with an injury. But this year, thanks in large part to his injury, Evans is more off pace than ever.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs only have five games left to play, and Evans has 521 yards. That’s the lowest yardage total with five games left in a season that he’s ever had in his career. That partly speaks to his consistency, and it partly speaks to his ability to stay on the field. But the reality this year is that he missed three games and finds himself facing long odds to reach 1,000 by the time the clock runs out in Tampa Bay’s Week 18 finale against New Orleans.

Mike Evans – Yards With Five Games Left To Play By Season:

2014 – 841
2015 – 789
2016 – 1,020
2017 – 702
2018 – 1,073
2019 – 1,043
2020 – 563
2021 – 794
2022 – 761
2023 – 1,012
2024 – 521

Evans’ next-lowest total with five games to play came in that 2020 season that saw him finish with 1,006. It took a couple of big 100-yard performances to make up ground over the final five contests that year, as he posted 110 yards against the Falcons and had a massive 181-yard day against the Lions. It’s likely going to take a couple more 100- or 120-yard games in the coming weeks for No. 13 to give himself a shot to get to 1,000 yards in the last week or two of the season.

Mike Evans Has His Work Cut Out For Him Over The Next Three Weeks

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs have five games remaining, starting Sunday at Raymond James Stadium against the Raiders. And this game against the Raiders starts a stretch of three straight games that will see Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay passing game come up against pass defenses ranked in the top half of the NFL in 2024.

Las Vegas is allowing 212.9 passing yards per game this season, which ranks 14th in the league. Next comes a trip out to Los Angeles to face the Chargers, who are giving up 206.4 yards per game through the air. That ranks 10th in the NFL. Then comes a Sunday Night Football game against the Cowboys at Jerry World. Dallas is ranked 13th against the pass, allowing 212.1 passing yards per game.

So, Evans has his work cut out for him over these next three games. He needs to make up some ground, but he’ll have to do so against some solid pass defenses. The Raiders and Chargers are similarly strong against the run, ranking near the middle of the pack. The Bucs are surely going to mix things up in those games, and there will be opportunities for Baker Mayfield to connect with Evans. That connection just needs to optimize the chances it does get in these next two games.

As for Dallas, the Cowboys have one of the worst run defenses in the league. Will Tampa Bay go run-heavy in Week 16, thus robbing Evans of some chances to be targeted? Maybe. The bottom line is that offensive coordinator Liam Coen will be putting a game plan together with the objective of winning games, not extending Evans’ streak (obviously).

If the 31-year-old can cut into those 479 yards he needs over these three games, though, there will be some prime opportunities for him to break through and get to 1,000 yards over the final two weeks of the season. That’s because in Week 17, the Bucs play the same Panthers team that Evans just put up an eight-catch, 118-yard performance against.

He’ll have a chance to cut further into the deficit then, and in the season finale, he and the Tampa Bay offense will face New Orleans and its 29th-ranked pass defense.

The odds may not be great for Mike Evans to earn his 11th straight 1,000-yard season and tie Jerry Rice’s all-time record. But the streak isn’t dead yet, and that means there’s still a chance.