Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs had their four-game winning streak snapped in Dallas, 26-24, by a spunky Cowboys team on Sunday Night Football. That loss led to Atlanta moving ahead of Tampa Bay in the NFC South. The Bucs no longer control their own playoff destiny and need to beat both the Panthers and the Saints and get some help from either the Falcons or Commanders in order to have a chance to reach the postseason.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

All the Bucs had to do to win the NFC South for a fourth straight season was win out. But a loss in Dallas, 26-24, coupled with a win by Atlanta, 34-7, over the New York Giants last Sunday has derailed Tampa Bay for the time being. If the Bucs are going to make the postseason, the team has two paths. Either win the division by finishing with one more victory than the Falcons, or enter the playoffs as the No. 7 seed instead of the Commanders. The Falcons and Commanders play each other in Washington this Sunday. An Atlanta loss in the next two weeks would be preferable for Tampa Bay, but Washington losing out would also be helpful as long as Tampa Bay wins out and finishes 10-7.

Aside from a playoff berth, head coach Todd Bowles’ job may be on the line. Bowles finished 8-9 in his first season as Tampa Bay’s head coach in 2022, yet the Bucs won the NFC South because the division was so bad. A 31-14 loss to the Cowboys in the home Wild Card game meant that Bowles needed to show improvement in 2023 in order to continue to lead the franchise. That happened with a 9-8 record and a convincing home playoff win over the Eagles last year, 32-9.

Bowles and the Bucs saw another promising 3-1 start dissolve into a 4-6 record before rebounding down the stretch for a second straight season. After losing four straight heading into the bye, the Bucs won four straight coming out of the bye to improve to 8-6 before Sunday’s loss in Dallas. If Tampa Bay does not make the playoffs, the franchise could consider parting ways with Bowles, especially with how the defense has underperformed this year. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has emerged as a hot head coaching candidate and the team may not want Coen to leave to run another team, as Dave Canales did last January in Carolina.

What’s At Stake For The Panthers

Panthers head coach Dave Canales – Photo by: USA Today

Former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales took over the biggest rebuild job in the NFL when he signed on as the Panthers’ new head coach. Saddled without a first-round pick and one of the worst rosters in the NFL, Canales’ infectious spirit has helped will Carolina into a formidable foe down the stretch. After a disastrous 1-8 start, which saw the benching of former first-round pick Bryce Young after just two games, the Panthers have showed signs of life, winning three of the last seven games, including a 36-30 overtime thriller against the Cardinals last week.

In addition to those three victories down the stretch, Carolina had Kansas City on the ropes before losing 30-27, and lost to Tampa Bay in overtime, 26-23. So the case could be made that with a favorable bounce of the ball in both of those games, Carolina could have two more wins and a total of six victories on the year.

Regardless, Canales has the Panthers playing good football heading into the 2025 offseason and the team could play the role of spoiler for either the Bucs or the Falcons as the final two games of the year are on the road in Tampa Bay and Atlanta. The arrow is pointing up for Canales and the Panthers and with another win or two to end the year, Carolina could finish with some momentum heading into next season.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay was fortunate to win in overtime at Carolina. With the Panthers driving into field goal range, Bucs outside linebacker Anthony Nelson stripped running back Chuba Hubbard of the ball and Yaya Diaby recovered the fumble. That led to a game-winning drive capped off by a Chase McLaughlin field goal as Tampa Bay finally won an overtime game under Todd Bowles. The Bucs will need to force some turnovers on defense, especially after losing the turnover battle 3-0 in Dallas.

Not only do the Bucs need to take the ball away on defense, they need to protect it on offense. Tampa Bay had three giveaways in Dallas, including the 15th interception of the season by quarterback Baker Mayfield and two fumbles, including one by Rachaad White on what could have been the game-winning drive on the team’s final possession. Mayfield threw two picks against the Panthers in Carolina and must play turnover-free.

The Bucs also need to score first, right? Tampa Bay is 8-1 when scoring first, but is winless when it doesn’t for some reason. So winning the coin toss seems like a key to victory, then score a touchdown on the opening drive. That actually happened in Carolina in Week 13, but it would be nice to see the Bucs pull away from the Panthers instead of the game coming down to the wire.

The Panthers Win If…

Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today

Carolina did everything it needed to do against Tampa Bay earlier in the season except for seal the deal. The Panthers were driving into field goal range in overtime before Chuba Hubbard had the ball stripped out of his hands. The Bucs capitalized on that turnover and drove down for a winning field goal. Learning to how to finish games is an important part of growth for bad teams on the path towards being good, and the Panthers took a big step in that direction last week with a 36-30 overtime win against the Cardinals.

So Dave Canales’ team should come into Raymond James Stadium full of confidence and belief that they can beat the Bucs after going toe-to-toe and blow-for-blow with them back in Week 13 at Carolina. Quarterback Bryce Young is playing much better down the stretch with eight touchdowns and four interceptions over the last seven games. But because the offense is not terribly explosive, the Panthers defense needs to step up and hold the Bucs to 23 points or less in order to have a chance to win.

Carolina is playing much better on both sides of the ball, and is up to nearly 23 points per game offensively. Tampa Bay is surrendering an average of 23.5 points per game right now, and just gave up 26 points to backup quarterback Cooper Rush in Dallas on Sunday. With Todd Bowles’ defense struggling with defending the middle of the field, look for Canales to attack that area in the passing game and exploit it.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Panthers CB Jaycee Horn

Bucs WR Mike Evans and Panthers CB Jaycee Horn – Photo by: USA Today

Once again it’s Mike Evans versus star cornerback Jaycee Horn, who was Carolina’s first-round pick in 2021. At 6-foot-1, 200 pounds, Horn has enough size to battle Evans, but Tampa Bay’s top receiver went off in Carolina in the last meeting. Evans recorded his first 100-yard game of the season in Tampa Bay’s 26-23 overtime win, and he had a dramatic touchdown catch over Horn in the first quarter. Evans now has five 100-yard games against the Panthers, which is the most against any other team. Three of those 100-yard games by Evans have also come at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

Evans went off for seven catches for 162 yards, including a 75-yard catch-and-run touchdown in last year’s 21-18 win over the Panthers and Horn struggled in that game. Horn battled back in Carolina in Week 13 with six tackles and two pass breakups, but couldn’t prevent Evans from topping 100 yards. He’ll need to win this one-on-one battle in Tampa Bay if the Panthers are going to have a chance of getting an upset win.

Evans is close to extending his NFL record 1,000-yard season streak to 11 years, but needs to have another big outing. After missing three games with a hamstring injury he’s had two 100-yard games within the last four weeks. With 818 yards through Week 16, Evans needs to average 91 yards per game over the final two weeks to hit 1,000 yards. That’s doable, especially given his track record for big games against Horn and the Panthers in the past.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Front 7 vs. Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard

Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard and Bucs ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: USA Today

Carolina showed a lot of confidence in running back Chuba Hubbard with a hefty contract extension earlier this season. The Panthers gave him a four-year, $33.2 million deal as a show of faith to the team that the franchise wants to reward its stars. The 25-year old Hubbard is the catalyst for Dave Canales’ offense. The former fourth-rounder rushed for 902 yards and five touchdowns last year, but is having a career year with 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. And he’s increased his average from 3.8 yards per carry last year to 4.8 yards per carry this year.

Hubbard only had one 100-yard game last year and that was in Tampa Bay, rushing for 104 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. But he’s topped 100 yards four times this season, including 153 yards in Munich against the Giants and 152 yards in last week’s overtime win versus the Cardinals. Hubbard had his first 100-yard game last year against the Bucs at Raymond James Stadium in a 21-18 loss. But Tampa Bay held him in check in Carolina in Week 13 this season with just 43 yards on 12 carries, plus forcing him to fumble in overtime.

The Bucs defense has been fantastic in stopping the run since the bye week after giving up seven 100-yard games on the ground earlier in the season, including 244 yards versus the Ravens on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay held Dallas to just 31 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries (1.6 avg.) last week, and has a Top 10 rushing defense. The Bucs will definitely need to hold Hubbard under 100 yards to prevail on Sunday.