After a disappointing setback on Sunday Night Football that dropped them to 8-7 and cost them control of their own destiny in the NFC South race, the Bucs will return home to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday to begin a season-closing two-game homestand. Up first, it’s the 4-11 Panthers coming to town just two days before the 2024 calendar year comes to a close.

Tampa Bay did well to get itself into a favorable position after a midseason slide, as the team won four straight games out of the bye week to reach 8-6 and claim the division lead. But that work was undone in Week 16, with the Falcons beating the Giants and the Bucs stumbling in primetime against the Cowboys. Now, Todd Bowles and Co. need to win their last two games and get some help elsewhere to reach the postseason.

The NFC South is still on the table, but Atlanta needs to lose a game while Tampa Bay wins out. If the Falcons win out and clinch the division, the Bucs’ only path to the playoffs is winning out and having the Commanders lose their final two games. In that case, Bowles’ team would sneak in as the NFC’s No. 7 seed.

But the focus for the Bucs has to be on themselves, as they can’t control the rest. They’re set to host a Panthers team that is playing inspired football down the stretch under first-year head coach and former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales.

Here is a preview of Sunday’s matchup between Tampa Bay and Carolina:

The Last Time…

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs only narrowly escaped the Panthers the last time these two teams met, needing a 51-yard Chase McLaughlin field goal as time expired to force overtime before needing a heroic forced fumble by Anthony Nelson to get the ball back in overtime. A long Rachaad White run then set McLaughlin up for the game-winning 30-yard field goal that resulted in a 26-23 win for Tampa Bay.

Baker Mayfield didn’t have his best game that day, throwing two costly interceptions. But he came through in the clutch. Bucky Irving was one of the stars of the day for Tampa Bay, rushing for a career-high 152 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Mike Evans also had his first 100-yard game of the season, hauling in eight passes for 118 yards and a touchdown.

Bryce Young was impressive for Carolina, finishing just shy of a 300-yard passing day. He came through in the clutch himself, finding Adam Thielen for a go-ahead 25-yard touchdown pass with 30 seconds left to cap off a nine-play, 60-yard drive. In the end, though, a collapse by the Carolina defense and a fumble by Chuba Hubbard kept Young from emerging from that performance with a win.

The Panthers have a 25-23 all-time regular season advantage over the Bucs, though Tampa Bay has won eight of the last nine meetings between the two teams.

How The Bucs And Panthers Are Trending Heading Into Week 17

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

When the Bucs won four in a row last December, they eventually hit a snag in Week 17 with a dud of a 23-13 loss to the Saints. They recovered just enough the next week, though, beating the Panthers 9-0 to clinch the NFC South on the season’s final day.

The timing was a bit off, but Tampa Bay has pretty much followed the same script up to this point in 2024. The team was 4-6 and won four straight, but instead of getting a fifth straight win and remaining in the driver’s seat in the division race, it hit a snag with Sunday’s loss to the Cowboys.

Now, it’s up to the Bucs to bounce back. They don’t control their own destiny anymore, but they very well could find themselves back in first place and back in control of their destiny by the end of Sunday if things fall their way. It starts with beating the Panthers at home, of course. Then, they’d love to get a favorable result on Sunday Night Football. If the Commanders can beat the Falcons after a Bucs win earlier in the day, Todd Bowles‘ team will have a win-and-in scenario in Week 18 when it hosts the Saints.

It all has to start with a win, though, which means Tampa Bay needs to get back to what worked so well during the four-game winning streak and avoid the turnovers, penalties and lack of execution that proved costly this past Sunday. Liam Coen‘s offense needs to get back to its roots and run the ball effectively with the duo of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White while Baker Mayfield protects the ball – and himself – better. The offensive line would do well to avoid committing drive-killing penalties like the ones that popped up a couple of times against Dallas, too.

On the other side, Bowles’ defense has to do a better job of getting after the quarterback and creating takeaways. That’s what the group did well in the 40-17 win over the Chargers two weeks ago, but it’s something it couldn’t do at all this past week against the Cowboys. Limiting explosive plays has been a challenge for the defense as of late, and that’s something the Panthers will look to expose again after finding success in Week 13.

Panthers head coach Dave Canales – Photo by: USA Today

For Carolina, everything is starting to look a little brighter. Dave Canales has his team playing much better football as of late, and second-year quarterback Bryce Young has found new life after an early-season benching. Following a five-game losing streak that dropped them to 1-7, the Panthers have largely been in every game since. They won back-to-back games over the Saints and Giants in early November, then came out of the bye week and found themselves with a chance to win in games against the Chiefs, Bucs and Eagles. They lost all three, but there were signs of life from Canales’ squad.

Then, after a 30-14 drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys in Week 15, the Panthers bounced back and beat the Cardinals 36-30 in overtime last week. Chuba Hubbard was the star of that game, running 25 times for 152 yards and two touchdowns, including a 21-yarder to win the game in overtime. Young also threw for two touchdowns and ran for another, bouncing back from a turnover-filled performance against Dallas the week before.

Carolina’s defense is struggling, though, having allowed 30+ points three times in the last five games. That unit allowed James Conner to run for 117 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries, while Kyler Murray threw for 202 yards and a touchdown in addition to running eight times for 63 yards and another touchdown. The key for the Panthers was that they did force two Cardinal turnovers, which further emphasizes the need for the Bucs to play a clean game on offense this Sunday. If Tampa Bay can do that, it should have a chance to do some damage to this Carolina defense.

The Panthers have a chance to play spoiler against a couple of division rivals over their final two games. That starts with the Bucs on Sunday, as a win for Carolina would badly damage Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes. But even with a loss in Tampa, Canales and his team would have a chance to play spoiler – and help the Bucs – with a win over the Falcons in Week 18.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Here’s how the Bucs and Panthers stack up heading into Week 17:

Bucs Offense: Fifth in scoring offense (28.5 PPG), third in total offense (389.7 yards per game), third in passing offense (246.1 yards per game), seventh in rushing offense (143.7 yards per game)

Panthers Offense: T-25th in scoring offense (18.9 PPG), 30th in total offense (295.8 yards per game), 30th in passing offense (183.5 yards per game), 16th in rushing offense (112.3 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 22nd in scoring defense (23.5 points allowed per game), 25th in total defense (354.3 yards allowed per game), 30th in passing defense (250.3 yards allowed per game), 10th in rushing defense (104.0 yards allowed per game)

Panthers Defense: 32nd in scoring defense (29.9 points allowed per game), 31st in total defense (385.9 yards allowed per game), 10th in passing defense (210.7 yards allowed per game), 32nd in rushing defense (175.2 yards allowed per game)

As of Tuesday, the Bucs were 8-point favorites with the Over/Under set at 49 (per Hard Rock Bet).

Bucs vs. Panthers Game Information

When: Sunday, December 29
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS – Ian Eagle (Play by Play), Charles Davis (Analyst), Evan Washburn (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst), Santiago Gramática (Reporter)