After yet another primetime loss on Sunday night, the 8-7 Bucs have to bounce back in a hurry as they return home to Raymond James Stadium on Sunday afternoon to host the 4-11 Panthers. Tampa Bay still has a shot at the NFC South and the playoffs, but it needs to take care of business against Carolina this week and New Orleans in the season finale.

Even with their loss to the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Week 16, the Bucs finished the regular season 5-3 on the road. Now, they’ll look to win out in Weeks 17 and 18 to finish above .500 at home. They’re currently 3-4 at Ray Jay this year, though they did beat the Raiders 28-13 the last time they played in front of the home fans.

A win for Todd Bowles and his team would get them to 9-7 and put some pressure on the Falcons, who hit the road to play the Commanders on Sunday Night Football.

Let’s dive into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in this rematch of that Week 13 thriller in Charlotte.

What Might Decide This Bucs-Panthers Matchup?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs still scored 24 points in Sunday’s loss to the Cowboys, but the offense didn’t look as efficient as it had been looking during the four-game winning streak. Drives were too often killed by drops, penalties, sacks, turnovers or a general lack of execution. Mostly everything was looking difficult on offense for Tampa Bay, which was the opposite of what went on when the team put up 40 points in a road win over the Chargers the previous week. As they return home to host the Panthers and their struggling defense, the Bucs offense needs to get back on track.

Baker Mayfield can’t afford to turn the ball over the way he did in the last meeting with the Panthers, and he can’t run into sacks the way he did too often against the Cowboys. When he’s decisive and in rhythm – as he was on the final drive of the first half against Dallas and as he was later when the Bucs cut the deficit to 26-24 in the fourth – he’s dangerous.

The Bucs need that Mayfield on Sunday. If they can get that version of him from the jump and the offense can muster up an opening-drive touchdown, it could go a long way. Tampa Bay is 0-6 when its opponents score first this year and 8-1 when it scores first.

What can help Mayfield is that his current top two receivers are riding hot streaks right now. Mike Evans has 31 catches for 477 yards and three touchdowns in the team’s five games since the bye week, and he just went for 112 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers at the start of this month. Mayfield and offensive coordinator Liam Coen need to do what they can to get Evans involved early and often in this matchup. Rookie Jalen McMillan is coming into his own as well, as he has 14 catches for 191 yards and four touchdowns over the last three weeks. Getting tight end Cade Otton back in the lineup would be a help, too.

The Bucs may be wise to once again lean on the run against the Panthers, who come into play allowing 175.2 yards per game on the ground – which ranks dead last in the NFL. Bucky Irving ran for a career-high 152 yards on Carolina earlier this month, and Rachaad White added 76 yards of his own. Tampa Bay ran for 236 yards in that victory in Charlotte.

Panthers QB Bryce Young and Bucs DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: USA Today

Defensively, the Bucs need to get to the quarterback and create some turnovers. Everything looked easy for Cooper Rush and the Cowboys offense on Sunday in the passing game, and Todd Bowles‘ group has to bounce back this week. It’ll once again be looking to stop the run the way it has in recent weeks, and it’s fair to expect a fair bit of Chuba Hubbard from the Panthers. But pass defense and a lack of consistent pressure on the quarterback are clearly the biggest problems for Tampa Bay right now, which is something that Dave Canales will look to exploit.

On that front, quarterback Bryce Young will be looking to create some of the explosive plays that served him and the Panthers so well when they nearly beat the Bucs in Week 13. In that game, Young had a 38-yard completion to Tommy Tremble, another to Tremble for 19 yards, one to Xavier Legette for 21 and a 25-yard touchdown pass to Adam Thielen. Between those and some of the intermediate throws he was hitting from 15-20 yards, the second-year quarterback was finding holes in the Tampa Bay defense. He’ll look to do that again on Sunday.

Of course, what the Bucs defense will be looking for is what Young will be looking to avoid. The former Heisman Trophy winner has shown significant improvement over the last month and a half or so, but just two weeks ago he showed that things can still fall apart for him and spiral out of control. In the Panthers’ 30-14 loss to the Cowboys in Week 15, Young threw two interceptions, lost two fumbles and was sacked six times. That was a step back for him, and it’s something the Bucs will look to replicate this weekend. Whether this Buccaneer defense is capable of such a performance? That remains to be seen.

Defensively, the Panthers have largely been a mess. They’re dead last in scoring defense, 31st in total defense and dead last in rush defense. They do rank 10th against the pass, but this is a unit that is struggling big-time. Carolina has allowed 30+ points in eight games this year, and it’s 1-7 in those games. Although the one win did come last week, this isn’t a defense that can win a lot of games. They don’t get after the quarterback well enough, and safety Xavier Woods is the only defender with multiple interceptions this season (three, including one off Mayfield in Week 13).

Key Players To Watch

Bucs RB Bucky Irving Photo by: USA Today

Bucky Irving continues to be a key figure in this Bucs offense, and considering he just set career highs in carries (25) and yards (152) against this Panthers defense that ranks dead last against the run, he’ll be one to watch again on Sunday. Irving has proven over the second half of the season that he can be more than a spark for Tampa Bay’s offense – he can be its driving force.

The rookie is 80 yards away from becoming the franchise’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Doug Martin in 2015. He may have a good shot to hit that mark come Sunday and accomplish the feat with a game to spare.

Vita Vea has consistently been the Bucs’ best defender this season. He has already set a new career high with nine tackles for loss in 14 games this season, plus he has six sacks, which leaves him one away from setting a new career high. He and Calijah Kancey (who has 6.5 sacks himself) have done most of the work for Tampa Bay’s pass rush this year, as the defense isn’t getting enough pressure off the edge. Vea has been a force up the middle both as a pass rusher and a run stuffer, and he’s truly put together one of the best years of his career at age 29.

Tampa Bay didn’t affect Cooper Rush at all in Sunday’s loss to Dallas, and it’ll have to do a better job of putting pressure on Bryce Young this Sunday. Vea will have to play a key role in that, plus he’ll have to continue to be strong against the run as Carolina looks to get Chuba Hubbard going the way it did when he ran for 152 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over Arizona.

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum and Panthers TE Tommy Tremble – Photo by: USA Today

On the Panthers’ side of things, the offensive focus here is on tight end Tommy Tremble. For whatever reason, Tremble has the Bucs’ number. His overall career production isn’t all that special, but he plays better against Tampa Bay than any other team in the league. He has more targets, catches and yards against Todd Bowles‘ defense than any other defense in the NFL, with 15 catches on 21 targets for 179 yards. He has eight touchdowns in four seasons, and two have come against the Bucs. At this point, it wouldn’t shock anyone if he has another big game against them this Sunday.

Back in Week 13, Tremble caught five passes for 77 yards (15.4 avg.), with a long of 38. He has a way of getting free against this Buccaneer defense, which will have to do a better job against him this time around.

Xavier Woods has been the Panthers’ do-it-all-playmaker on defense this season. Baker Mayfield knows this, as Woods got him for an interception earlier this month. The veteran safety has filled up the stat sheet for Carolina, as he has a team-high 102 tackles (64 solo), two tackles for loss, five passes defensed and a team-high three interceptions. He did allow a touchdown in the loss to the Cowboys two weeks ago, but he’s allowed 10 catches on 17 targets for only 45 yards over the last six games.

Carolina’s pass defense is much stronger than its run defense, and Woods is part of that with his three interceptions and five passes defensed. Jaycee Horn (13 passes defensed, one interception) and Michael Jackson (14 passes defensed, one interception) are the other two central figures in the Panther secondary, which will be looking to force Mayfield into some mistakes on Sunday afternoon.