Week 17 played out exactly how the Bucs would’ve dreamed it to, as they rolled right over the Panthers by a score of 48-14 and then benefitted from the Commanders’ overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday Night Football. With that, Tampa Bay is right back atop the NFC South just one week after falling out of first place. And now, head coach Todd Bowles and his team control their own destiny heading into Sunday’s regular season finale against the Saints.

If the Bucs can take care of their own business and beat the Saints at Raymond James Stadium to kick off 2025, they’ll earn a fifth straight trip to the playoffs and a fourth consecutive NFC South title. They can also win the division with a Falcons loss to the Panthers in Atlanta, but handling the job on their own and securing their first double-digit-win season since 2021 is obviously much more preferable.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The full playoff picture is nearly set heading into Week 18, but the Bucs have more than just the division title to play for. If they can win the division and get a Seahawks win over the Rams, they’ll be the NFC’s No. 3 seed, setting up a game against the No. 6 seed at Raymond James Stadium on Super Wild Card Weekend. That No. 6 seed would be either the Commanders or Packers, though if the Rams win and the Bucs remain in the No. 4 seed, they’ll play the No. 5 seed. That’ll be the loser of this Sunday night’s game between the Lions and Vikings in Detroit.

Tampa Bay mustn’t be caught looking ahead, though. This is a 5-11 New Orleans team that is struggling, but it’s also a team that always seems to play well in Tampa. If Bowles’ team can finish off a season sweep of the Saints for the second time in his three-year tenure, it’ll head into the playoffs as winners of six of the final seven games.

Here’s a preview of Sunday’s regular season finale between the Bucs and Saints at Ray Jay:

The Last Time…

The Bucs and Saints last met in Week 6 in what turned out to be a game much wilder than the final score might’ve indicated. Tampa Bay won 51-27, but it was a game of runs. The Bucs went up 17-0 early before a disastrous second quarter turned that 17-point lead into a 27-24 deficit at halftime. From there, they outscored the Saints 27-0 in the second half for one of their more lopsided wins ever over their division rivals.

Bucs RB Sean Tucker – Photo by: USA Today

The run game was without Rachaad White that day, but it ultimately didn’t matter as Sean Tucker stepped up with an NFC Offensive Player of the Week performance. The second-year back ran 14 times for 136 yards and a touchdown while adding 56 yards and another touchdown on three catches. Bucky Irving also contributed to Tampa Bay’s 277-yard rushing day, going for 81 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.

Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield overcame three interceptions to throw four touchdowns, with Chris Godwin leading the way for the receivers, catching 11 passes for 125 yards and two scores.

The Buccaneer defense sacked rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler five times in that game and picked him off twice, with Zyon McCollum and Tykee Smith both getting one. Smith also forced an early fumble that Antoine Winfield Jr. returned for a touchdown.

The Saints have a 40-25 lead in the all-time series with the Bucs, though Tampa Bay has gone 4-1 in five meetings between the two teams under Todd Bowles.

How The Bucs And Saints Are Trending

The Bucs have been trending in the right direction since the bye week, going 5-1 in their last six games. Despite a slip-up against the Cowboys in Week 16, they bounced back last week and put up 48 points in a resounding home win over the Panthers. Now, they have a win-and-in scenario as they wrap up the regular season in Week 18.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

A big reason why Tampa Bay is in a position to win the NFC South and make the playoffs once again is the success of its offense. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has drawn national praise for the work he’s done with the Bucs offense this year, and for good reason. This is a unit that has been good all year, but it’s been even better since the bye week. Baker Mayfield and Co. are averaging 32.7 points per game over the 5-1 stretch since the bye, and Mayfield has not only gotten meaningful contributions from Mike Evans but also rookie Jalen McMillan.

Mayfield has thrown 15 touchdowns in the last six games and is up to 39 on the year to go along with his three rushing touchdowns. And he’s coming off a 359-yard, five-touchdown day against the Panthers that saw him earn NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for the second time this season.

It helps that Tampa Bay is also running the ball exceptionally well, currently ranking fourth in the league with 147.3 rushing yards per game. Bucky Irving just surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark last week, while Rachaad White is up to 613 yards on the ground as well. The run game has gone from dead last to top five in the span of one season, and it’s a major reason why the Bucs rank in the top five in scoring offense, total offense and passing offense as well heading into Week 18.

Tampa Bay’s defense is still susceptible to bending and allowing explosive plays, as Carolina’s Bryce Young and Adam Thielen proved early in last week’s game. But when the defense can string a few stops together and the offense can build a lead off the back of those stops, it can change everything for Todd Bowles‘ group. After all, the defense held the Panthers scoreless in the second half and got sacks from Yaya Diaby, Logan Hall, Calijah Kancey, Anthony Nelson and Chris Braswell on the day.

Saints RB Alvin Kamara and Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

On the Saints’ side of things, the interim coach bump has fizzled. After they fired Dennis Allen and promoted Darren Rizzi, they won three of four to get back to 5-8. Since then, though, they’ve lost three straight. The first two were more understandable, as they lost a hard-fought 20-19 game to the playoff-bound Commanders before an ugly 34-0 shutout loss to the Packers, who are also playoff-bound. But last week’s 25-10 home loss to the previously 3-12 Raiders is a tough look for Rizzi and his team, who appear to be stumbling toward the season’s finish line.

It doesn’t help that New Orleans has been without key pieces on offense for the better part of this season. Chris Olave and Taysom Hill are both on injured reserve, while quarterback Derek Carr has been injured on and off and is fighting to return for one more game in Week 18 after suffering a hand injury back in Week 14. Alvin Kamara has also missed the last two games with a groin injury and is trying to work his way back to play against the Bucs on Sunday.

Without Carr, it’s mostly been rookie Spencer Rattler under center for the Saints. It’s been a tough go for the former Oklahoma and South Carolina quarterback, as he’s completed just 55.9% of his passes and thrown three touchdowns to five interceptions while being sacked 20 times. Kamara has still been the key to the New Orleans offense (as he often has been), as he has 950 rushing yards, a team-high 543 receiving yards and eight total touchdowns this season.

Defensively, the Saints haven’t been able to hang against the run or the pass. They rank 30th against the run, allowing 139.1 yards per game on the ground. The Bucs ran for 277 on them back in Week 6, and even the Raiders – who have no run game – ran for 156 yards against them last week thanks in large part to a career-high 115 yards by Ameer Abdullah. The New Orleans pass defense ranks 27th and just allowed 242 yards and two scores to Aidan O’Connell last week as well.

Since starting 2-0, the Saints are 3-11. This is an aging team that has been stuck in neutral for the last four years, but it’s a team that – despite its insistence that the Bucs aren’t a rival – has some hate for the team in Tampa. Before heading into an offseason that will surely be full of change, New Orleans will be looking to play spoiler on Sunday. Tampa Bay can’t afford to let that happen.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

Here’s how the Bucs and Saints stack up heading into Week 18:

Bucs Offense: 4th in scoring offense (29.7 PPG), 3rd in total offense (399.8 yards per game), 3rd in passing offense (252.6 yards per game), 4th in rushing offense (147.3 yards per game)

Saints Offense: 23rd in scoring offense (19.9 PPG), 20th in total offense (321.9 yards per game), 24th in passing offense (203.8 yards per game), 14th in rushing offense (118.1 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 17th in scoring defense (22.9 points allowed per game), 21st in total defense (344.9 yards allowed per game), 29th in passing defense (244.9 yards allowed per game), 5th in rushing defense (99.9 yards allowed per game)

Saints Defense: 18th in scoring defense (23.2 points allowed per game), 30th in total defense (379.0 yards allowed per game), 27th in passing defense (239.9 yards allowed per game), 30th in rushing defense (139.1 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday, the Bucs were 13.5-point favorites with the Over/Under set at 43.5 (per Hard Rock Bet).

Bucs vs. Saints Game Information

When: Sunday, January 5
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Kevin Burkhardt (Play by Play), Tom Brady (Analyst), Erin Andrews & Tom Rinaldi (Reporters)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst), Santiago Gramática (Reporter)