Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs’ 48-14 win over the Panthers last week coupled with the Falcons’ overtime loss to the Commanders put Tampa Bay back in the driver’s seat to win the NFC South division once again. A win by the Bucs means a fourth straight NFC South title, but a loss could really complicate things in Tampa Bay. The 9-7 Bucs are heavy favorites over the 5-11 Saints in the 2024 season finale.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So what’s at stake for the Bucs in Sunday’s regular season finale against the Saints? Everything. If Tampa Bay wins, it’s in the playoffs as the NFC South champion for the fourth year in a row. The team would host a Wild Card playoff game next week against the Packers, Commanders or the loser of the Lions vs. Vikings game, which would be the runner-up in the NFC North division, depending on outcomes of the Week 18 action in the NFL.

The Bucs have a chance to finish as the No. 3 seed if they win and the Rams lose to Seattle on Sunday, otherwise the team will have the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs. Tampa Bay will also have its first double-digit record in the regular season since finishing with a franchise-record 13 wins during the 2021 season. The Bucs could also back into the playoffs if they get upset by the Saints and the Panthers beat the Falcons on Sunday. Tampa Bay currently has a 9-7 record while Atlanta is 8-8.

Yet if the Bucs somehow lose to the five-win Saints, there is a very real chance that the team could move on from head coach Todd Bowles at the end of the season, especially if offensive coordinator Liam Coen wants to be a head coach in 2025 and draws interest from around the league. Tampa Bay doesn’t want his creative mind and playbook going elsewhere and taking nearly 30 points per game with him. If Bowles, who has a 26-24 record in the regular season right now, is fired it only seems logical that Coen would be the leading candidate to replace him.

What’s At Stake For The Saints

Saints DE Cameron Jordan and ex-Bucs RB Leonard Fournette – Photo by: USA Today

The Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen after a Week 9 loss to the Panthers, following the team’s seventh straight defeat after a 2-0 start. Allen was on hand for the Bucs’ 51-27 win in New Orleans back in Week 6. The Saints had a 27-24 lead at halftime, but saw the Bucs reel off 27 straight points in the second half to pull away for the victory.

Special teams coach Darren Rizzi was named the interim head coach and promptly won three of the next four games. But New Orleans has lost its last three games and is now 3-4 under Rizzi. Rookie Spencer Rattler has taken over for the injured Derek Carr and points have been at a premium. New Orleans has not scored more than 19 points in any of the last five games since the bye week, and lost to the 4-12 Las Vegas Raiders last week, 25-10.

Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady are believed to be the front-runners for the New Orleans head coaching job in 2025. The Saints are an old team with serious salary cap issues. There will be big changes in New Orleans next year and this could be the last game for several Saints legends like defensive end Cameron Jordan, inside linebacker Demario Davis and safety Tyrann Mathieu. They’ll want to try to pull off an upset and go out with a bang, playing the role of spoiler.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

It might be a fluky stat, but it’s been spot on this year for some reason. When the Bucs score first, they are 9-1 this season and 0-6 when they don’t. Guess what happened in last week’s 48-14 win over the Panthers? The Bucs scored first. So it seems like scoring first on Sunday against the Saints is important. When Tampa Bay jumps out to an early lead, it usually means a big day for the offense and it allows head coach Todd Bowles to open up the playbook on defense and go into attack mode.

New Orleans has the 30th-ranked run defense, allowing an average of 139.1 yards per game. So a big day for Bucky Irving seems like a good bet, especially since Tampa Bay owns the league’s fourth-ranked rushing attack, averaging 147.3 yards per game. But the Saints pass defense is also quite porous, allowing an average of 239.9 yards per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. So Baker Mayfield could also have a field day through the air in helping Mike Evans get the 85 yards he needs to reach 1,000 for an 11th straight season.

If Tampa Bay can protect the ball on offense and win the turnover battle, it has a chance to cruise to a double-digit victory at Raymond James Stadium by a similar score to the Week 6 triumph at New Orleans, 51-27, or last week’s win over Carolina, 48-14. The Bucs might need to come away with some takeaways on defense, and that could happen as rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler has thrown five interceptions and just three touchdowns this year.

The Saints Win If…

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Saints QB Spencer Rattler – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For some reason, the Saints play the Bucs much better in Tampa Bay than in New Orleans. Over the past six years, the Saints are 5-1 at Raymond James Stadium, including a 23-13 win last year in Week 17 when the Bucs could’ve clinched the division title with a victory. New Orleans jumped out to a 23-0 lead and dominated Tampa Bay.

The Saints have even won in Tampa Bay with a backup quarterback and an interim head coach before. Sean Payton missed the Saints’ 9-0 win at Ray-Jay due to testing positive for COVID-19 and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen took over for that game. Taysom Hill was the quarterback and rode a dominant performance by the Saints defense to victory and a season sweep of the Bucs that season.

The Saints don’t like the Bucs and will play hard even though the team doesn’t have anything to play for other than pride. Tampa Bay lost to lesser foe just a few weeks ago in Dallas because it lost the turnover battle, 3-0. If rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler can avoid interceptions – he threw two against the Bucs in Week 6 – and the Saints defense can pick off Baker Mayfield as it did three times in the first meeting, that could be the recipe for an upset in the season finale.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Saints CBs Alontae Taylor And Kool-Aid McKinstry

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The twice-a-year Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore battles have come to an end. New Orleans traded their longtime shutdown cornerback to Washington at midseason and Evans won’t face Lattimore again this season unless the Bucs play the Commanders in the playoffs. Paulson Adebo, the Saints’ other starting cornerback, is on injured reserve. So New Orleans moved Alontae Taylor out of the slot to play outside on the left side while rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry, the team’s first-round pick, plays right cornerback.

Evans moves around in Liam Coen’s offense and will even see some time in the slot against nickelback Ugo Amadi, which could be a favorable matchup as he’s 5-foot-9 and Evans is 6-foot-5. But Evans does most of his damage on the outside and he’ll face both Taylor and McKinstry on Sunday. Either matchup appears to be favorable for Evans and the Bucs.

The crafty, 11-year veteran could school McKinstry, who has only given up two touchdowns, but has yet to record an interception in the NFL. Or Evans could take advantage of Taylor, who was a much better fit inside in the slot than outside where he has struggled in coverage. Taylor has surrendered five touchdowns and doesn’t have a pick this season. Evans needs just 85 yards to reach 1,000 yards receiving for the 11th straight season and that seems like a sure bet against an underwhelming group of Saints cornerbacks.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Linebackers vs. Saints RB Alvin Kamara

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Saints RB Alvin Kamara – Photo by: USA Today

It’s crazy to think that long-time Saints running back Alvin Kamara has never had a 1,000-yard season in his eight years in New Orleans. But the all-purpose back has the chance to do that at the end of the 2024 regular season. Kamara has 950 yards rushing and needs just 50 more against Tampa Bay to hit that milestone. The Bucs defense held Kamara to just 40 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries (3.1 avg.) in the 51-27 win over the Saints at New Orleans in Week 6.

Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled mightily to defend the pass this year, ranking 29th in the league and allowing 244.9 yards per game through the air. But Todd Bowles’ unit has been very stout against the run. The Bucs rank fifth in run defense and are only allowing an average of 99.9 yards per game on the ground. Knowing that, the Saints could deploy Kamara in the passing game to hurt the Bucs defense, which is something he’s done time and again on screen passes against Bowles and Co.

Kamara had five catches for 24 yards in Week 6 against the Bucs, and could try to exploit linebackers Lavonte David, J.J. Russell and K.J. Britt in coverage where the unit isn’t good. Don’t be surprised if the Saints also line up Kamara in the slot or out wide and try to get a matchup against safeties Jordan Whitehead or Mike Edwards. If the Bucs can keep Kamara in check and hold him to under 75 total yards they should be able to cruise to a victory as he’s New Orleans’ primary weapon with Chris Olave, Taysom Hill and Rashid Shaheed on injured reserve.