When the Bucs meet the Saints at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday afternoon, they’ll be looking to make sure this game isn’t the only one they get to play in January. Because with a win over New Orleans, Tampa Bay will clinch the NFC South for the fourth straight year and secure a home playoff game on Super Wild Card Weekend.

The Bucs have been here before, as they went into their 2023 regular season finale last January with a win-and-in scenario. Of course, that was after they failed to beat the Saints at home in Week 17. Back then, they fought their way to a 9-0 win at Carolina to clinch a third straight division title. This time around, they’re at home against another division foe who will be looking to play spoiler. Tampa Bay comes into play with a 9-7 record, meaning a victory would not only mean another division title and a home playoff game but also 10 wins – a one-win improvement over last season.

Meanwhile, New Orleans comes into play at 5-11 after losing three straight. The team’s most recent loss came at home to a previously 3-12 Raiders team, so it’ll be looking to bounce back and end the 2024 regular season on a high note before an offseason that promises to bring a lot of change.

Let’s dive into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in Sunday’s “hat and t-shirt game” at Ray Jay:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Saints Matchup?

Bucs OC Liam Coen and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For the Bucs, scoring first has been the key this season. They’re 9-1 when they score first and 0-6 when they don’t, and while there may be plenty of factors that play into that stat, there’s no denying that Tampa Bay is a better team when it gets off to a fast start. After a streak of 23 straight games without an opening-drive touchdown that extended into Week 4 of this season, the Bucs have now scored eight opening-drive touchdowns this season. A ninth for Liam Coen‘s offense on Sunday would set the tone right as Baker Mayfield and Co. look to lead the way to a division-clinching win.

On that point, it’s more likely than not that it’ll be Coen, Mayfield and the offense who will have to lead the charge toward a 10th victory on Sunday afternoon. That side of the ball has been Tampa Bay’s strength all year, and it would be a surprise to see that change now when it matters most. Mayfield is up to 4,279 yards and 39 touchdowns to 15 interceptions this year after a 359-yard, five-touchdown day in last Sunday’s 48-14 win over the Panthers. That earned him his second NFC Offensive Player of the Week award of the season, and another steady, efficient performance from him will set the Bucs up well in their pursuit for another division title.

It helps that Mayfield has been able to work with whoever has been available this year. Much of the offense’s early-season success went through Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. But when the Bucs lost Godwin for the season and Evans for a few games, Mayfield kept the offense afloat by getting the most out of Cade Otton. Since Evans returned after the bye week, he’s been back to his productive self, plus rookie Jalen McMillan has come along in recent weeks with six touchdowns in the last four games. And even without Otton in the last two games, the tight end position has still chipped in. Payne Durham and rookie Devin Culp were key early in last week’s win.

As much as the Bucs will look to exploit the Saints’ 27th-ranked pass defense, they’ll also look to control the line of scrimmage and do some damage against New Orleans’ 30th-ranked run defense. Tampa Bay did exactly that in its 51-27 win at the Superdome back in Week 6, rushing for 277 yards behind an NFC Offensive Player of the Week performance by No. 3 running back Sean Tucker and rookie Bucky Irving, who has emerged as one of the hottest rookies in the league down the stretch. Look for Coen to lean on his offensive line as the game goes on so that it can wear down the defense and help the run game break things open.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Saints QB Spencer Rattler – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Defensively, pressure will be the key for the Bucs, whether they’re matching up with veteran quarterback Derek Carr or rookie signal-caller Spencer Rattler. If it’s Carr, disrupting him in the pocket is the best way to make sure he can’t sit back and eat the back seven alive with easy throws to work his way down the field. If it’s Rattler, Tampa Bay needs to get pressure on him and force him into mistakes the way the defense did back in Week 6 when it picked him off twice and sacked him five times.

The defense did finish with five sacks in last week’s win over Carolina, and three of those came from outside linebackers in Yaya Diaby, Anthony Nelson and rookie Chris Braswell. The Bucs have needed more sack production off the edge all season, and they got a fair bit of it in Week 17. More in Week 18 would be a huge help, and perhaps the defense can get something out of the recently re-signed Shaq Barrett, who head coach Todd Bowles said should be available for Week 18 and any games beyond that after he was inactive last week.

Whether New Orleans is going to be lively in this game may depend on its ability to get healthy. The Saints stand a better chance if Carr is able to overcome the hand injury he suffered in Week 14 and return to action for the regular season finale. They would also stand a much better chance if they can get Alvin Kamara back in the lineup. The team’s leading rusher and receiver has been dealing with a groin injury for the last couple of weeks and is trying to make it back for the final game of the season. He is just 50 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard rushing season.

Saints RB Alvin Kamara and Bucs DB Christian Izien – Photo by: USA Today

If Kamara is able to suit up and go, his effectiveness will determine what type of day it is for the New Orleans offense. With Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill all on injured reserve, there’s not a lot of playmaking ability left on this Saints offense. Most of it comes from Kamara, so if the Bucs can limit him the way they did in Week 6 when he had just 40 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries and 24 yards on five catches, they’ll be in good shape.

For the Saints defense, the only hope is to create some turnovers. That’s how they got back in the game the last time they played the Bucs, as they overcame a 17-0 first-quarter deficit to take a 27-24 lead into halftime thanks in large part to three Mayfield interceptions. Creating takeaways seems to be the only path for New Orleans to slow down this high-powered Tampa Bay offense that is averaging almost 33 points per game since the bye week. The Saints’ 16 takeaways are 23rd-most in the league heading into Week 18.

Key Players To Watch

Mike Evans has to be a difference-maker for the Bucs in this game. The Saints traded his longtime nemesis, Marshon Lattimore, and are without Paulson Adebo as well. Wherever he lines up on Sunday, Evans is likely to see the matchup favor him. That should not only help the Tampa Bay passing game, but also the future Hall of Famer’s pursuit of an NFL-record-tying 11th straight 1,000-yard receiving season. Evans needs 85 more yards to break 1,000, and the odds should be good for him to get there. And if he does, it’ll surely mean good things for the Buccaneer offense, making it doubly beneficial.

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and Saints QB Derek Carr – Photo by: USA Today

Why not spotlight the returning Shaq Barrett here? Tampa Bay hasn’t gotten enough from its outside linebackers this season, so when Barrett came out of retirement, was waived by Miami and became available for cheap, signing him for the rest of the season was a low-risk, high-reward move.

Barrett hasn’t played all season and his sack production dipped last year, but he still put up a 13.8% pressure rate. His reps are sure to be limited, but it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see that the veteran still has a splash play or two in him.

Alvin Kamara is the biggest threat on this New Orleans offense, which is why the team would love to have him available in Week 18. He is averaging 4.2 yards per carry this year, with 950 yards and six touchdowns on 228 carries. He also has a team-high 543 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 68 catches (with 89 targets). The offense will run through him if he’s on the field, and he’s still dangerous enough to make some things happen.

By kickoff on Sunday, Demario Davis will be less than a week away from his 36th birthday. He is still playing at a high level, as he is the second-highest-graded Saints defender by PFF’s metrics. He is their leading tackler with 127 (63 solo), plus he has two sacks, five tackles for loss, six passes defensed and an interception. His 77.3 run defense grade will be put to the test on Sunday as the Bucs look to get Bucky Irving and Rachaad White going.