INTRO: We’re back to where it all started in 2024 as the Bucs square off against their Week 1 opponent, the Washington Commanders, in the NFC Wild Card round on Sunday Night Football. Tampa Bay prevailed in the season opener, 37-20, but will be facing a Pro Bowl quarterback in Jayden Daniels, who has improved a lot during his rookie season. The Bucs didn’t have Calijah Kancey or Shaq Barrett in Week 1, and Bucky Irving only had nine carries.

I’ll tell you how those three could make an impact against the Commanders, and why Todd Bowles could blitz Daniels even more on Sunday night. Plus, the Bucs are bracing to lose assistant general manager John Spytek, but hope to hang on to offensive coordinator Liam Coen and assistant G.M. Mike Greenberg. All three are drawing interest from around the league due to Tampa Bay’s success. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Bucs Will Likely Blitz Jayden Daniels Even More

That’s what head coach Todd Bowles should do against the rookie quarterback on Sunday night when the Bucs host the Commanders in the NFC Wild Card round of the playoffs.

That’s what Bowles has already done, blitzing Daniels on 32.4% of the pass snaps back in Tampa Bay’s 37-20 Week 1 win against Washington in his NFL debut, according to NextGenStats. On 11 blitzes, Daniels completed 5-of-9 passes for 45 yards and was sacked twice.

Bowles blitzed Daniels 33.3% of the time on second-and-long (7+ yards). He blitzed 57.1% on third down, including 75% on third-and-3-6-yard situations.

Interestingly enough, Bowles only blitzed Daniels 33.3% of the time in third-and-long situations.

Daniels is a special talent who can win from the pocket as well as scrambling outside of the pocket for yardage, as he did back in Week 1 with 88 yards on 16 carries. But like any rookie, he can struggle due to a lack of experience. Daniels was blitzed at the sixth-highest rate among NFL starters this year at 32.7% of the time.

Yet Nate Tice of Yahoo! Sports notes that Daniels and the Commanders have figured out answers against the blitz as the season has progressed. When the pressure comes, Daniels is quick to look for top target Terry McLaurin either on screens when Washington expects the blitz, or downfield when the blitz comes on first or second downs.

Tice wrote: Daniels ranked third in EPA per dropback and eighth in dropback success rate among all qualifying QBs against the blitz since Week 1, which speaks to the consistent answers he keeps finding when defenses try to heat him up.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and LB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bowles is known for being one of the blitz-heaviest coaches in the league, but since the Bucs’ bye in Week 11, he’s been dialing up blitzes more than ever it seems.

Since beating the Giants, 30-7, in Week 12, Bowles’ Bucs defense has blitzed 48.6% of the time, according to Tice. On third and fourth downs, Bowles has cranked it up to 66.7% of the time when it comes to blitzes since the bye week.

Tice writes: The highest late-down blitz rate since 2016 (as far back as NextGenStats database goes) was 66.8% by the 2019 Ravens with Wink Martindale dialing it up. The next highest late-down blitz rate is the 2017 Browns at 55.4%. The Bucs’ season-long late-down blitz rate would still rank eighth since 2016, but their rate since Week 12 would be battling for the highest we’ve seen recorded.

Yet the increase in blitzing hasn’t necessarily translated into more sacks down the stretch. Tampa Bay finished with 46 sacks in 2024, which is tied for fifth with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bucs had 27 sacks in the first 10 games of the year, an average of 2.7 sacks per game. And Bowles’ unit finished with 19 sacks in the final seven games – again for an average of 2.7 sacks per game.

But blitzing more certainly seems to have paid off when it comes to opponent point production down the stretch. In the first 10 games of the season, in which Tampa Bay was 4-6, Bowles’ unit was surrendering 26.6 points per game. That number has fallen to 17 points per game over the final seven games, in which the Bucs finished 6-1.

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Make no mistake – playing lesser teams, with lesser quarterbacks and lesser offenses has absolutely helped. But the reasoning behind Bowles’ penchant for dialing up his blitzes at a historic rate is a sound one.

Since doing some self-scouting at the bye week, Bowles seems to have made a concerted effort to blitz more to mask a secondary that has been ravaged with injuries. Starting free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. missed eight games due to injury, while starting cornerback Jamel Dean and strong safety Jordan Whitehead each missed five games.

Starting nickelback Tykee Smith and reserve defensive back Christian Izien each missed three games due to injury, and reserve safety Mike Edwards missed two.

Bowles has made the conscious decision to blitz more so his secondary doesn’t have to cover as long, especially with a reserve DB or two in the lineup every week it seems. Smart move by Bowles.

And with Tampa Bay struggling to rush the passer with just four, evidenced by a collective 12 sacks from all the outside linebackers combined, Bowles must blitz to ensure that opposing quarterbacks are pressured. The Bucs have nearly as many sacks from blitzing inside linebackers and defensive backs – 10 – as they do from outside linebackers.

Bucs ILB SirVocea Dennis and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis and outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka each recorded a sack of Daniels in Week 1. Dennis has been on injured reserve since Week 5 due to season-ending shoulder surgery, and Tryon-Shoyinka only notched one more sack over the next 16 games.

Inside linebacker K.J. Britt missed a point-blank sack on a blitz against Daniels in the season opener due to his stiffness and lack of athleticism. Thankfully he’s been replaced by J.J. Russell in the starting lineup. Britt, who had half a sack this season, shouldn’t even be on the field on Sunday night outside of special teams due to his lack of speed.

Bowles is hoping that Winfield can return from a knee injury he sustained against the Raiders a month ago and play on Sunday night. He had a career-high six sacks last year and has two QB captures this season.

Winfield could be coming back in the nick of time to join Bowles’ Bucs blitzing brigade on Sunday night.

Look out, Jayden.

FAB 2. Calijah Kancey Gets His First Crack At Jayden Daniels

For as much excitement as there is about the possible return to action of starting safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and cornerback Jamel Dean this week for the Wild Card playoff game against Washington, Tampa Bay is excited to have defensive tackle Calijah Kancey on the field on Sunday night, too.

Kancey missed the first five games of the season due to a calf injury and wasn’t available to help rush Commanders phenom quarterback Jayden Daniels. It turns out the Bucs didn’t necessarily need him in a 37-20 win in Week 1 in Daniels’ NFL debut.

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey and Saints QB Spencer Rattler – Photo by: USA Today

But having Kancey on the field could have led to another sack or two of Daniels and possibly limited his rushing yards. Daniels scrambled 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns the first time in Tampa Bay.

Kancey wound up leading the Bucs in sacks this season with a career-high 7.5 sacks and is one of the fastest front-line defenders in Tampa Bay with 4.67 speed at 282 pounds.

“I’m excited to have Calijah back,” Bucs outside linebacker Yaya Diaby said. “The first time we played them I felt like I needed him out there to help me out. I’m happy he’s going to be out there with me.”

Diaby is coming off his first NFC Defensive Player of the Week award and has 2.5 sacks in the last three games. He and Kancey split a sack in Dallas.

In Week 1 Diaby had a team-high four pressures but missed a couple of opportunities to get the lightning-fast Daniels on the ground.

“He’s got some real speed, and with me being a fast guy – I know this time around I need to get my hands on him,” said Diaby, who was timed at 4.51 at the NFL Scouting Combine prior to the 2023 NFL Draft.

Having the disruptive Kancey rushing inside can help keep Daniels from finding inside escape lanes to use when pressured. And Kancey’s pressure up the middle could even flush the Washington rookie right into Diaby on the perimeter of the pocket.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“For us as a front line it’s all about rush lanes,” Diaby said. “We have to make sure we rush the right way. He can beat you anywhere – inside or outside. So guys just got to … you can’t play scared. You can’t rush scared. But at the same time, you’ve got to make sure you know where you’re at and where he’s at.”

According to Nate Tice, Daniels has scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, more than any other QB, and accumulated more EPA than any QB on his scrambles against the blitz.

“He can do it all, honestly,” Diaby said. “He can do it all. He’s really good, he can throw the ball the right way, get active with his feet, so he does it all. For us, we just have to go in with a great game plan and I feel like I know we will.”

Despite leading the team in sacks as a rookie with 7.5 sacks, Diaby didn’t have any success in the Bucs’ two playoff games. But Kancey did, notching half a sack against Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts in last year’s Wild Card win and also sacked Jared Goff in Detroit.

Kancey can line up all over the line in Todd Bowles’ defense. He’s a defensive tackle on the inside, of course, but could also see some time on the edge and even at the linebacker level as a blitzer or dropping in coverage due to his agility and athleticism.

“I feel like the guys like me and Calijah – this being our second time being in the playoffs, now we know what we have to do,” Diaby said. “We got a win last year against the Eagles, so we know what it takes to win. I feel like we’re going to bring some great juice.”

Between Kancey and Diaby, the Bucs are hoping they can put the squeeze on Jayden Daniels.

FAB 3. Shaq Barrett Even More Ready To Rush After First Taste Of Contact

The moment Bucs receiver Mike Evans made history with his 11th straight 1,000-yard season on the heels of the team clinching its fourth straight NFC South title with a 27-19 win over the Saints was something out of a storybook or a fairytale.

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It certainly overshadowed the return of pass rusher Shaq Barrett to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Barrett played a dozen snaps, but was just happy to be part of the Bucs’ big win and Evans’ big moment.

“It felt good to be back out there,” Barrett said. “I missed playing for the Bucs. The way they welcomed me back with open arms has been amazing. It was a historic moment with Mike and to get another [NFC South champions] hat and t-shirt victory was great. It felt good. I never heard the stadium get as loud as it did at the end of the game. It was the crowd, it was the sidelines, it was everybody. All for Mike, man. It felt good.”

Barrett played 12 snaps in Sunday’s win – eight plays where he was a designated pass rusher, two plays where he dropped in coverage and two run plays where he recorded his lone tackle against the Saints.

“I have no clue how many snaps I played, maybe 12-15 snaps?” Barrett said. “It felt good. That was my first hit, and my neck got kind of tight. I was like, ‘Man I haven’t hit anybody in a long time!’ But after one play it went away and it was good to get that first taste of contact. So I was excited, and at the end of the game I was able to get into a little bit of pass rush mode.”

With Evans having his history-making moment last week, the Bucs are hoping it’s Barrett’s turn to do something out of a Hollywood script on Sunday night when the Commanders come to town for an NFC Wild Card playoff game. Simeon Rice has recorded the most postseason sacks in team history with seven, followed by Hall of Famer Warren Sapp’s 5.5. Barrett is next on the list with four.

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

With the Bucs essentially holding walk-through practices the last two weeks, Barrett’s first real pass rush drills were during those eight snaps on Sunday. Remember, Barrett retired prior to training camp and took three months off of training before getting back into over the last month when he was contemplating coming out of retirement. There’s certainly some rust he needs to shake off.

After the Week 18 win, I asked Barrett if he still has his famous first step at age 32.

“It’s there, but I have to get comfortable getting off with the snap,” Barrett said. “I need to get the cadences down. The more you are in the game the more you get those counts down. So when I’m in the game I don’t have to waste a snap knowing when I can get off. I can just get off the ball.”

Playing the elusive Jayden Daniels on Sunday night, Todd Bowles will take all of the pass rush help he can get.

FAB 4. Bucky Irving’s Historic Rookie Season Continues Into The Playoffs

The first official “Bucky! Bucky! Bucky!” chant at Raymond James Stadium happened against the Commanders with 10:20 left in regulation and Tampa Bay up on Washington 30-14 back in Week 1.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving and TE Payne Durham – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

On second-and-2 from the Bucs 16-yard line, offensive coordinator Liam Coen called a draw to rookie running back Bucky Irving, who took the handoff and raced 31 yards down the right sideline for a big gain close to midfield.

And just like that, a legend was born. Irving outrushed veteran Rachaad White that day, finishing with 62 yards on nine carries (6.9 avg.) to the veteran’s 31 yards on 15 carries (2.1 avg.). Irving would outrush White on the season 1,122 yards to 613 yards and finish the regular season as the team’s starter.

Irving became one of 16 NFL backs to hit 1,000 yards rushing in 2024, just like he did in his final two seasons at Oregon. The Bucs’ fourth-round pick had the 10th-most yards in the NFL this year and was the smallest back to do it. Irving is listed on the team’s website at a generous 5-foot-10, 195 pounds.

His official size at the NFL Scouting Combine was 5-foot-9, 192 and it’s doubtful he’s grown an inch over the past 10 months. Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs (1,412 yards) and L.A. Rams back Kyren Williams (1,299 yards) are slightly bigger at 5-foot-9, 200 pounds and 5-foot-9, 202 pounds, respectively.

But the fact that Irving led all NFL running backs in yards after contact (minimum 200 rushes) with 4.03 yards is super impressive. Especially considering that the next backs on the list are Baltimore’s Derrick Henry at 3.50 yards, Carolina’s Chuba Hubbard at 3.46 yards and Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs at 3.45 yards. Jacobs is 5-foot-10, 223 pounds while Henry is 6-foot-2, 247 pounds.

Irving forced 57 missed tackles on 237 carries, which ranks ninth in the NFL and is a missed tackles forced rate of 24%. Henry led all NFL rushers with 80 missed tackles on 389 carries, but only had a missed tackles forced rate of 20.6%

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

Washington only faced Irving nine times in the running game in Week 1, but that will change on Sunday night. Over the last four games of the season, Irving has averaged 17.5 carries per game, including 20 carries for 113 yards (5.7 avg.) in a 48-14 win over Carolina and 19 rushes for 89 yards (4.7 avg.) and the game-clinching touchdown in last week’s victory over New Orleans.

Irving became the first Tampa Bay back to rush for 1,000 yards in a season since Doug Martin did it back in 2015, which is quite a feat. The former Oregon star also became the first Bucs rookie running back to hit 1,000 yards since Martin’s 2012 season.

But Irving can also become the first Bucs running back to hit 100 yards rushing in the postseason since Michael Pittman ran for 124 yards in Super Bowl XXXVII back in 2002. Should he do that, it could be a good indicator that Tampa Bay will beat Washington. The Bucs were 3-0 in games in which Irving hit 100 yards rushing and were even 6-0 in games he topped 80 yards.

FAB 5. Bucs Bracing To Lose John Spytek, Hope To Retain Mike Greenberg

Bucs assistant general manager John Spytek and former QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bucs assistant general manager John Spytek will be meeting with Tennessee to interview for the Titans’ vacant general manager position. Spytek has previously interviewed with the Raiders for the G.M. post in 2022 and with Minnesota for the Vikings general manager job that same year. Spytek also interviewed with Pittsburgh in 2022 and made it to the second round, so this will be his fourth opportunity to interview for a G.M. job.

Spytek joined the Bucs personnel department to take over for Jon Robinson as Jason Licht’s right hand man on the scouting side in 2016. Robinson left that year to become the Titans general manager, which was a role he occupied until he was fired in 2022.

Don’t be surprised if Las Vegas shows interest in Spytek, too. As I posted on X on Thursday, Spytek and Raiders minority owner Tom Brady were college teammates at Michigan. And of course the two made three trips to the playoffs together from 2020-22 and won Super Bowl LV.

Brady, who has called three Bucs game on FOX this year, has been seen chumming it up with Spytek during each visit to Tampa Bay. And don’t be surprised if Brady also shows interest in Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen, too.

Bucs OC Liam Coen and Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Coen has already been mentioned as a head coaching candidate in Jacksonville, as the Jaguars fired Doug Pederson this week. The Jags are looking for another offensive-minded head coach to work with franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and Coen just helped Baker Mayfield have his best NFL season to date with 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes.

Coen was born in Rhode Island and played quarterback at UMass. He grew up a huge Tom Brady fan, and the lure of possibly working with Brady – and perhaps Spytek – could be difficult to turn down. Las Vegas has the No. 6 overall pick and will likely be drafting a quarterback in the first round, and the team has the second-highest available salary cap room in 2025 with $107.3 million available.

Licht has been prepping the 44-year old Spytek for a general manager opportunity for years, allowing him to speak about the draft before the media and hold press conferences of his own to give him that experience. Licht has known that Spytek would eventually become a G.M. and could weather the storm of losing him because of the depth and talent of Tampa Bay’s front office. He has two able directors of player personnel in Mike Biehl, who oversees college scouting, and Rob McCartney, who is in charge of pro scouting. Director of pro scouting Shane Scannell is also an up-and-comer in the Bucs’ front office.

Robinson could also be a candidate to return to Tampa Bay should Spytek raid some of the front office members if he gets a G.M. job elsewhere.

The one person that Licht cannot afford to lose is assistant general manager Mike Greenberg, who is interviewing in person for the vacant New York Jets G.M. job on Friday. Greenberg is the team’s capologist and chief strategist and has been with the organization for going on 16 years, preceding Licht. Growing up in Long Island, New York, Greenberg is a lifelong Jets fan and that would certainly play a huge role if he’s offered the position.

Bucs assistant GM Mike Greenberg and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Greenberg is truly Licht’s right-hand man and is also the lead contract negotiator with agents. Greenberg also brought on Jacqueline Davidson, who is the vice president of football research and assists Greenberg with the salary cap, strategic planning and contracts.

If Greenberg were to accept the Jets G.M. job if offered, he would likely take Davidson with him, and that could be a crippling blow to Tampa Bay’s front office heading into the offseason. Both worked together in the Jets front office under former New York G.M. Mike Tannebaum, who is currently heading up the search despite working for the media website, The 33rd Team.

Spytek’s time to lead another team has come. Greenberg is also deserving, but the Bucs would be wise to do something to make him stay in Tampa Bay – even if it means promoting Licht to team president and elevating Greenberg to the role of general manager. He’s that important to the Bucs.

And of course, the Bucs need to find a way to keep Coen, too.

If the Patriots come calling, it might be difficult for him to turn down that opportunity as he grew up in a New England fan. Having Drake Maye, last year’s first-round pick at quarterback, and a league-high $123.8 million in cap room would be tough for Coen to turn down.

Tampa Bay just can’t let the play-caller that revived the ground game and produced the No. 4 scoring offense (29.5 ppg.) leave.