With the Bucs moving to their third offensive coordinator in as many years, there is natural curiosity about how effective the unit can be coming off of a near-historic season in which they ranked top 5 in almost every statistical category. New offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard elicits plenty of conjecture as he has never called plays himself but was the architect of the team’s league-leading third down offense last year.

It’s that third down offense that fascinates me so much.

Grizzard did not make the calls on third down. That responsibility still rested with now-Jaguars head coach Liam Coen.

But Grizzard’s role was to find the plays that had the highest likelihood of succeeding against the specific defenses they faced each week. Grizzard helped create the third down menu and Coen selected the specific play in each individual situation.

Bucs pass game coordinator Josh Grizzard and former OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In a four-part series, I am going to go through the Bucs’ third downs through the context of prep and execution looking at the early, mid-point, and end of the season to see how they found success and how they can build from that now that Grizzard has the reins fully in 2025.

Week 1 – Bucs vs. Commanders

Prep

The Bucs’ first game of the year had them facing a team with new leadership under head coach Dan Quinn. Using data on Washington from 2023 would not benefit Josh Grizzard, Liam Coen or the Bucs as Dan Quinn – a defensive-minded head coach – would be implementing his own defensive tendencies and structures. To glean how to handle the Commanders in 2024, it was best for the Bucs to look to Quinn’s time in Dallas as the Cowboys defensive coordinator from 2021 to 2023.

In 2023, the Cowboys ran some version of man coverage – Cover 0, Cover 1 or Cover 2 Man – on 62% of the pass plays they defended. Over the entire three-year span, that number was 55%. Coen has said previously that it is his preference to design pass concepts to beat man coverage and then adjust to zone from there. This matchup presented as one he would prefer as the team would have wanted their best man-beaters in the game plan on third down.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: USA Today

These would include speed outs, mesh and picks. From a targeting standpoint, attacking outside the numbers – away from the middle-of-the-field safety and the hole defender – is typically the most successful route.

Looking at the Commanders defensive roster heading into last year, their strengths lied in their front-seven as a run defense more than as a pass defense unit. Even when the Bucs were in third-and-short, passing would have been a more beneficial course of action facing a back seven that included a rookie making his first start in Mike Sainristil and two linebackers who work better moving forward than backward in Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu.

Execution

The Bucs were 9-of-13 on third downs against Washington. They averaged 10.1 yards/play and 1.03 EPA/play. Tampa Bay ran twice and threw the ball 11 times. Per SIS Data, the Bucs faced man coverage on seven of their 11 drop backs. Baker Mayfield completed five of his six pass attempts for 75 yards and a touchdown, averaging 12.5 yards per attempt. The Bucs converted on five of those seven third downs.

1st Quarter 11:43 – Third-and-3

Coen and Grizzard aimed to test the rules of Washington’s Cover 1 scheme by running pick and traffic routes from condensed bunches to see if the Commanders could pass the receivers off to the right defensive backs at the line of scrimmage, or if they would remain rigid in their route distribution pickups. Washington chose rigidity and busted coverages routinely because of it. Here is the first third down of the game, where Mayfield and Jalen McMillan just missed an easy walk-in touchdown.

The one that got away. pic.twitter.com/UDDkcMdmSY

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) July 5, 2025

Pre-snap, the Commanders mug up the A gaps, running a six-man surface. This leaves them in a 3-over-3 look to the bunch side. As the bunch releases post-snap, Washington is unable to pass assignments off and Sainristil gets screened through the wash as McMillan runs a slot fade. Coen and Grizzard were able to successfully use Cade Otton’s 240+ pound frame to create maximum disruption from the apex of the bunch playing through safety Jeremy Chinn and picking Sainristril. Chris Godwin’s dig from one further clears the perimeter by drawing Emmanuel Forbes inside.

1st Quarter 8:12 – Third-and-6

On their next third down, the Bucs spread out a bit more and the Commanders attempted to disguise their Cover 1 look a bit more pre-snap. Coen and Grizzard send Otton in motion to see if they can get a man-tell follow. But Washington doesn’t bite, instead widening what looks like a zone structure.

Can’t articulate how much I love everything about this play. Godwin with the short return to force the nickel to sit low. Using Otton on the vertical to filter the post safety. Evans running away from the hole safety’s leverage.

Chef’s kiss. pic.twitter.com/c5ADvP0eYd

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) July 2, 2025

Post snap, Washington sticks with the Cover 1 look from last time. Only now there are some matchup disparities. Quan Martin rolls down to pick up Mike Evans from three. But in doing so, he has to give up outside leverage and that plays right into the sail concept the Bucs are running for a big pickup.

2nd Quarter 14:22 – Third-and-7

Having been burned twice on man, Washington tried to switch things up the next time they were forced to defend the money down. They switched to a Cover 6 look from another mugged-up look. They run Cover 2 to the boundary and Cover 4 to the field. This is advantageous for the Bucs because it puts two defenders on Otton and dedicates up to four defenders to Godwin, Evans and McMillan.

I think JMac may still be running. To be clear. This was almost an identical route distro to the last play I posted. On the 1st Evans gets WFO on the intermediate out.

This time WAS sits two on that route jailbreaking JMac on the up top bust. pic.twitter.com/ND9G5APAmD

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) July 2, 2025

Because the Bucs decide to stress the perimeter, the dropping pole runner provides no defensive help to Tampa Bay’s triplets and Evans’ intermediate out that connected on the previous third down draws both the corner and safety as each thinks the other will take McMillan’s deep vertical.

4th Quarter 15:00 – Third-and-7

The Commanders’ commitment to Cover 1 continued throughout the game and the Bucs matched it with similar route patterns throughout. It paid off in a big way to start the fourth quarter when Tampa Bay once again motioned into a condensed 3×1 to test how well Washington could communicate changes in offensive structures. It once again did not work out well for them.

WAS spent the day in C1 on 3rd down. TB spent the day beating C1 on 3rd down. pic.twitter.com/xMB5QGwGin

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) July 2, 2025

Once again, Washington is trying to disguise the eventual Cover 1 look they get to by rotating to it out of a two-high shell, but confusion abounds as McMillan motions from one to two. Based on how the Commanders played this same Cover 1 rotation earlier in the game, I believe the safety was right to sit on Otton and Sainristil was responsible for carrying McMillan’s vertical. He gets crossed, thinking he had over-the-top help deep and fails to follow leaving McMillan open for his first career touchdown.

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs’ third down package in Week 1 was specifically designed to beat Cover 1 over and over. In addition to these plays, they also won on third-and-short with quick motion speed outs to win with outside leverage. Converting on 69% of their third downs, this was the second-best game of the year for Grizzard’s package.

And it manifested itself in a 37-20 win in Week 1 over Washington.