Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs are 4-1 after another strong fourth quarter finish in a 38-35 shootout win in Seattle. The tests keep getting tougher as Tampa Bay hosts a 4-1 San Francisco team that is coming off a 26-23 overtime road win at Los Angeles against the Rams. The 49ers have beaten the Bucs three straight years. Will that trend continue on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. at Raymond James Stadium?

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

At 4-1, the Bucs are one of the NFC’s early-season surprises, but their Week 6 showdown against the 4-1 49ers is a major litmus test to prove they belong among the conference’s elite. Tampa Bay has lost three straight games to San Francisco, but the score has narrowed each year. The 49ers beat the Bucs on a last-second field goal last year, 23-20, in a game in which Baker Mayfield didn’t have Mike Evans or Chris Godwin Jr. at his disposal.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan – Photo by: USA Today

It’s time for Tampa Bay to rise up and beat San Francisco. Todd Bowles has yet to figure out how to stop Kyle Shanahan and corral the 49ers’ top weapon Christian McCaffrey, who has been a thorn in the Bucs’ side for years, dating back to his days with the Carolina Panthers. Quarterback Brock Purdy got his first win as an NFL QB over Bowles and the Buccaneers back in 2022 and has compiled a 137.8 QB rating in three games versus Tampa Bay with 871 yards passing with seven touchdowns and no interceptions.

Both teams come into this game banged up and missing key star players. For Tampa Bay, it’s not having Evans, running back Bucky Irving or right tackle Luke Goedeke. Yet the Bucs rolled up 38 points last week in Seattle for the team’s fourth last-minute victory of the year and seem ready to end the 49ers’ mastery over them. This is a pivotal NFC showdown as a higher playoff seed could go to the winner of this game.

What’s At Stake For The 49ers

Like the Bucs, the 49ers’ 4-1 record is built on close wins by a combined 13 points, including a 26-23 overtime win at Los Angeles against the Rams. San Francisco already has a 3-0 lead in the NFC West to start the season. Getting a fourth straight win over the rising Buccaneers would help Kyle Shanahan and Co. notch another key NFC victory that would help in January during playoff seeding. Backup quarterback Mac Jones is 3-0 as a starter and the big question for Shanahan is whether or not to ride the hot hand or re-insert Brock Purdy as the starter if he’s healthy enough to return.

49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

Christian McCaffrey has been the do-it-all star on offense for Shanahan, but someone else needs to emerge as a playmaking touchdown producer. What’s made Shanahan’s offense dangerous in the past is the ensemble effect with plenty of star power with the likes of George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and McCaffrey. Without Kittle and Aiyuk, who are injured, Shanahan’s offense has averaged just 21.2 points per game and ranks 22nd in scoring offense.

Robert Salah’s defense has helped keep the team afloat as the 49ers rank sixth in scoring defense, allowing just 19.6 points per game. San Francisco’s defense isn’t flashy, just effective, especially on third down where the unit ranks fifth in the NFL, allowing just a 33.3% conversion rate. Salah needs some stars to emerge alongside All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The Bucs Win If…

For the 4-1 Buccaneers to knock off the 4-1 49ers in Week 6, Tampa Bay’s offense must find a rhythm early and stay balanced. Rachaad White had some difficulty running the ball in Seattle and the rushing attack needs to get going and average well over 100 yards per game. Emeka Egbuka continues to shine in the passing game and the Bucs need Chris Godwin Jr. to continue to step up and elevate his game for Baker Mayfield as he works his way back from last year’s season-ending ankle injury.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay’s offensive line did a great job with protection last week in Seattle and that has to continue against San Francisco. The 49ers only have six sacks on the year and two of them came from Nick Bosa, who is on injured reserve. Mayfield needs to attack rookie defensive backs Upton Stout and Marques Sigle, and keep playing clean football and not give the 49ers their first interception of the year.

Defensively, the Bucs must be ready to face either quarterback – Brock Purdy or Mac Jones – but slowing down Christian McCaffrey is the top priority. Todd Bowles must create some defenses designed to bottle up McCaffrey, especially in the passing game. Although they are not as flashy as Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel were, receivers Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall were effective in last year’s loss to the 49ers and must be contained. After not getting a sack last week, Tampa Bay’s pass rush needs to get revved up and help force some takeaways.

The 49ers Win If…

The 49ers have relied on their backs and tight ends for touchdowns at the start of the season. Christian McCaffrey has three receiving touchdowns and is tied with tight end Jake Tonges for the team lead. Jauan Jennings is the only receiver with a touchdown so far, and whoever starts at quarterback needs to do a better job of spreading the ball around. McCaffrey leads San Francisco with 39 catches, which is nearly double that of top receiver Ricky Pearsall, who played at the University of Florida. Pearsall needs to step up and make more plays downfield.

49ers WR Ricky Pearsall – Photo by: USA Today

Kyle Shanahan needs to try to isolate McCaffrey on inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis in man coverage, as that has been a big problem area on defense for Todd Bowles. Tampa Bay’s inside linebackers remain the weakness on Bowles’ defense, as Lavonte David’s play has slipped and he’s missing more tackles than ever at age 35.

Without Pro Bowl pass rusher Nick Bosa, who is out for the year due to injury, Robert Saleh’s defense lacks star power outside of All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner. San Francisco has a very young defense and starts two rookies in the secondary in nickelback Upton Stout and safety Marques Sigle. This unit must grow up fast and start making plays. The 49ers have just six sacks on defense and no interceptions through the first five games of the season. That needs to change. Pressuring Baker Mayfield will be critical to a San Fran victory on Sunday.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs RT Charlie Heck vs. 49ers DE Bryce Huff

Despite only playing in four games at right tackle for the injured Luke Goedeke, Charlie Heck leads the Bucs in quarterback pressures allowed with 22, according to Pro Football Focus, and that includes surrendering two sacks. PFF has given Heck a 37.1 pass blocking grade as a result, and Tampa Bay can’t wait to get Goedeke back in the starting lineup – hopefully next week at Detroit for a key NFC game on Monday Night Football.

Bucs OT Charlie Heck and Eagles DE Josh Uche – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Robert Salah has moved Bryce Huff around in game, playing him on both the left and right side. Yet with Heck the obvious weak link on Tampa Bay’s offense from a pass protection standpoint, it makes sense for Salah to attack that weakness by putting his best pass rusher against him with more regularity on Sunday.

Without Pro Bowler Nick Bosa, a lot of pressure falls on Huff to hit and sack quarterbacks. Both he and Bosa have two sacks apiece this year on a San Francisco defense that only has six sacks through the first five games of the season. Huff was acquired in a trade with Philadelphia after he bombed there as a high-priced free agent signing last year. Salah needs Mykel Williams, the team’s first-round draft pick, to come alive and help out Huff, notching his first NFL sack in the process.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs LBs vs. 49ers RBs And TEs

San Francisco head coach and offensive play-caller Kyle Shanhan has used his backs and tight ends extremely well down in the red zone this year. Out of the 10 touchdowns the 49ers have scored through the air, only one has come from a wide receiver so far this year. Running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end Jake Tonges are tied for the team lead with three.

Bucs ILB Lavonte David and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle had one touchdown in the season opener before he was placed on injured reserve, and reserve tight end Luke Farrell and fullback Kyle Jusczcyk each have one receiving score. Shanahan likes to use play-action near the goal line and that should continue on Sunday in Tampa Bay.

Aside from Lavonte David’s heroic interception last week at Seattle, the Bucs linebackers remain suspect in coverage and will be targeted by Shanahan via the 49ers backs and tight ends. Expect Shanahan to heavily involve McCaffrey in the screen game, as well as trying to isolate him on wheel routes against David and SirVocea Dennis. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles may have to dial back how much man coverage he’s playing and play more zone coverage as a result.