Baker Mayfield has always been a high variance quarterback. There are several ways to illustrate this aspect of his game. His fairly consistent turnover-worthy play rate – consistently around 2.5-3.5% – is one marker. Even last year, widely regarded as the best season of his career throwing for 4,500 yards and 44 total touchdowns, Mayfield threw 16 interceptions and fumbled 13 times.

Mayfield’s ceiling has always been as high as any other quarterback in the NFL. That’s what led him to being selected 1st overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. But it was extended stretches of turnover-prone play that held him back from being a part of the conversation of elite quarterbacks.

2025 Brings New Narrative And A New Level Of Play For Baker Mayfield

Four game-winning drives in the last two minutes have thrust Baker Mayfield onto the national stage and spurred the recent calls for Mayfield to be a front-runner for the league MVP. And that’s understandable. Leverage is an important factor in determining these contextual awards. Those four game-sealing drives have been worth around 2.64-win probability added on their own.

But the one area Mayfield’s play was still lacking through the first four weeks was an element of ball-security. Sure, he had just one actual interception. But it wasn’t for a lack of trying. His nine turnover-worthy plays through the first four weeks of the season were tied for the league-lead and his three fumbles was similarly at the top of an undesired leaderboard.

The average turnover-worthy play rate of the last 10 MVP’s is 2.4%. Patrick Mahomes’ 2018 was the high-water mark at 3.2%. Mayfield’s 5.1% rate through the first four weeks of the season were quite a way off that mark and screamed regression to the mean. The likelihood he could continue to walk that razor’s edge and still prevent actual turnovers was quite low.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

That is why these last two weeks are impressive as Mayfield has continued the late game heroics for the most part while the offense has featured a fantastic deep ball attack that offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard has dialed up. The veteran gunslinger has shown an ability to level himself up with the ball security required to sustain the MVP chants and conversations that have been popping up over the past few weeks.

It is these past two weeks that have seen Mayfield complete 46 of his 56 pass attempts. The number of attempts – 28 per game – is not the usual stuff of MVP candidates. But his efficiency, an 82% completion rate and an obscene 11.3 yards per attempt and four touchdowns buoy the lack of volume in attempts. Mayfield has supplemented that passing production with a continuation in his sack avoidance this year, as he has only been brought down twice in as many games.

What has been incredible is this increased efficiency has not come at the expense of the downfield aggression that has highlighted this year’s version of Baker. Baker’s 59.7% completion rate and 69.2% adjusted completion rate over the first quarter of the season were trailing last year’s incredible 71.8% and 79.2%, respectively. But that was understandable given the increase in his downfield approach. His average depth of target was up 22% from 7.4 to 9.0. But against Seattle and San Francisco, Mayfield was able to maintain his aggressive approach while still completing a ridiculously high percentage of his throws. His average depth of target these past two weeks has been 8.4.

Bucs OC Josh Grizzard and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

And somehow, without Mike Evans Chris Godwin Jr., Jalen McMillan, and Emeka Egbuka, Mayfield is creating plays in structure and out of structure. He was 2-2 on 20+ air yard throws against the 49ers, hitting Kam Johnson and Tez Johnson each for long touchdowns.

An MVP season requires several elements, both subjective and objective. The objective is a winning season. At 5-1, the Bucs sit alone atop the NFC. It is early, but they are a good bet to be one of the seven representatives the conference sends to the playoffs. Mayfield is currently on pace for 4,361 yards and 34 touchdowns plus another 448 rushing yards. Crucially, he’s on pace to throw just three interceptions and is rapidly reducing his turnover-worthy play rate.

Subjectively, Baker Mayfield now has several game-winning drives AND the narrative of winning with a litany of injuries befalling both his offensive line and his playmakers. No matter who is in front of him nor who he is throwing to, Mayfield keeps winning. And he keeps elevating his game. He is absolutely playing at an MVP-caliber level.