Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Tampa Bay is now 6-2 coming off the bye week, which was desperately needed to heal up and rest several key starters. The Bucs begin a stretch of three very tough games with a 7-2 New England team that is essentially this season’s Washington Commanders from a year ago. The Patriots have a second-year quarterback in Drake Maye who has thrown 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He’ll have to outduel Baker Mayfield and the Bucs and dodge Todd Bowles’ blitzers to make it out of Raymond James Stadium with a win on Sunday.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs?

For the 6-2 Buccaneers, this Week 10 showdown against the 7-2 New England Patriots at Raymond James Stadium carries major implications for both playoff positioning and national perception. Tampa Bay has asserted itself as one of the NFC’s most battle-tested teams, but this game is about proving they can beat another heavyweight. A win over the red-hot Patriots – one of the AFC’s most disciplined and well-coached teams – would solidify the Bucs’ claim as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, not just a strong divisional leader.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Josh Grizzard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Todd Bowles’ defense faces the challenge of stopping a methodical New England offense that thrives on execution and patience, led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Offensively, Baker Mayfield and company must show they can rebound from two sub-par performances before the bye week to sustain drives against one of the league’s stingiest defenses.

Beyond the X’s and O’s, this matchup is a measuring stick – the kind of late-season litmus test that can build confidence or expose flaws. With the NFC South tightening thanks to Carolina’s upset win at Green Bay and playoff seeding on the line, Tampa Bay can’t afford a letdown at home. Beating Mike Vrabel’s team would show that they came back from the bye week ready to roll into a tough three-game stretch against New England, Buffalo and Los Angeles over the coming weeks.

What’s At Stake For The Patriots?

For the New England Patriots, this Week 10 trip to Tampa Bay is more than just another tough road test – it’s a statement opportunity. Mike Vrabel’s team has quietly built one of the best records in the AFC behind disciplined football, strong situational defense, and an efficient, mistake-free offense.

Patriots WR Stefon Diggs – Photo by: USA Today

But facing the Buccaneers on their turf is a chance to prove that New England’s resurgence is no fluke – that this version of the Patriots is capable of beating elite opponents outside their conference and in hostile environments. A win would keep New England firmly in the hunt for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and send a message across the league that Vrabel’s squad is still a legitimate championship threat – or at least a threat to the Bills in the AFC East.

The Patriots’ defense will be tested by Baker Mayfield’s aggressive downfield passing attack and his playmaking ability, which includes some timely scrambles for first downs. New England’s offense must be prepared for Todd Bowles’ pressure-heavy defense and win on first down to not set up Drake Maye for third-and-long passing downs. This is the kind of test for a young football team that defines playoff-caliber teams in November. A road victory over the NFC’s top contenders would bolster the Patriots’ confidence and control in the AFC race, while a loss could expose cracks that opponents will look to exploit down the stretch.

The Bucs Win If…

For the Buccaneers to take down the Patriots in this Week 10 clash at Raymond James Stadium, the offensive line must play better than it has the past two games. Baker Mayfield must continue his efficient play and avoid the costly turnovers that New England’s defense can thrive on.  Tampa Bay has a plus-7 turnover margin, while the Patriots are even in that category. If the Bucs can continue to win the turnover battle, they’ll achieve their seventh win of the season.

Bucs ILB Lavonte David and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Running the ball will be tough sledding as the Patriots have the No. 1 rushing defense led up front by middle linebacker Robert Spillane and a stingy front four. Rachaad White must help keep the offense balanced with steady production on the ground and as a receiver, especially against a disciplined Patriots front seven that rarely gives up big plays.

Defensively, Todd Bowles’ unit has to confuse Drake Maye with disguised pressures and rotating coverages. The Bucs’ front four, which is led by Vita Vea and Yaya Diaby, must collapse the pocket and make Maye uncomfortable without over-committing and leaving scrambling lanes open. Tampa Bay’s linebackers and secondary must communicate well to limit tight end Hunter Henry on third downs. If the Bucs can control the line of scrimmage, win the turnover battle, and dictate tempo, they’ll stay atop the NFC standings.

The Patriots Win If…

For the 7-2 Patriots to notch a statement win over the Buccaneers in Week 10, they’ll need to lean into their identity – disciplined defense, efficient offense, and protect Drake Maye better than they have so far this year, as he’s the second-most sacked quarterback in the league. Maye must stay poised against Todd Bowles’ aggressive blitz schemes. The Bucs love to disguise pressure, so Maye’s pre-snap reads and quick decision-making will be critical.

Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson – Photo by: USA Today

Establishing the run with Rhamondre Stevenson and Treyveon Henderson will help neutralize Tampa Bay’s pass rush and set up play-action shots to Hunter Henry and Stefon Diggs, especially if top receiver Kayshon Boutte is out with a hamstring. The Patriots offensive line has to hold up against Vita Vea’s interior push and keep Maye upright in long-yardage situations.

Defensively, Mike Vrabel’s group must make Baker Mayfield uncomfortable and take advantage of the Bucs’ passing game not having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. Expect the Patriots to key on Emeka Egbuka, and force Mayfield to beat them with his secondary options like Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson. The front seven needs to win on early downs, keeping Rachaad White from finding a rhythm and setting up predictable third-and-longs. If the Patriots can control time of possession and win situational football, they can escape Tampa with a road win.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke vs. Patriots OLB Harold Landry III

Barring a setback, the expectation is that Luke Goedeke will play and start on Sunday as he returned to practice on Wednesday. How much rust will Goedeke have to shake off when he returns to action, as he’s been sidelined with a foot injury since the first quarter in Week 2? That will be the key as he’ll face a tough matchup against Patriots outside linebacker Harold Landry III, who is tied for the team lead in sacks with K’Lavon Chaisson with 5.5.

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Also, how will Goedeke fare from a conditioning standpoint? While he should be fresh and well rested and not dealing with any wear and tear from not playing since Week 2, will he still be strong in the fourth quarter or will fatigue set in? It’s supposed to be sunny and 81 degrees at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. Landry plays with a high motor and leads New England in pressures with 36 this year.

While a healthy Goedeke is certainly a better option than Charlie Heck at right tackle, he will have to adjust to playing with a new right guard, as he spent the first two weeks of the season playing next to Cody Mauch, who is now on injured reserve after injuring his knee in Week 2. Landry wins with speed and has plenty of pass rushing experience to draw from, as he’s a seven-year veteran. It’s a tough draw for Goedeke in his first week back in action.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby vs. Patriots LT Will Campbell

Yaya Diaby has come on over the last couple of weeks and leads the team in sacks, including two against the 49ers and a strip-sack against the Lions. Without Haason Reddick, Diaby will need to continue to play at a high level, as Tampa Bay cannot count on Anthony Nelson to deliver another two-sack game, including a pick-six. Diaby leads Tampa Bay with 28 pressures and needs to get after Drake Maye, who has been sacked 34 times already this season.

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Maye is sacked on average 3.8 times per game, and the Bucs have had 15 sacks over the past three weeks. Getting to the second-year quarterback and rattling him into some mistakes will be absolutely necessary. Maye has only thrown four interceptions this year and that has to change on Sunday. Diaby must lead the way as he’ll have the most one-on-one opportunities rushing from the right side of the line against Patriots rookie left tackle Will Campbell.

Campbell, a top five pick, is a very talented athlete, but he’s also allowed 20 pressures this year and surrendered five sacks, according to Pro Football Focus, which leads all New England offensive linemen. Diaby must take the fight to Campbell on passing downs and get to Maye a few times while forcing him to step up into the pocket where nose tackle Vita Vea will be waiting. Diaby must avoid rushing inside and missing, as Maye can break contain with his scrambling and run for first downs.