For the first time in almost a month, the Bucs return to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday to start the second half of their season. Coming in at 6-2, Tampa Bay will play host to the 7-2 New England Patriots to begin a tough three-game stretch against teams with a combined record of 19-6.

The Bucs have already tied their best start in franchise history and have a 1.5-game lead over the Panthers in the NFC South race as they pursue a fifth straight division title. And coming into Week 10, they also hold the NFC’s No. 2 seed, trailing only the 6-2, defending Super Bowl champion Eagles.

But Sunday will be a major test for both Tampa Bay and New England. For Todd Bowles and Co., they have an opponent coming into their home stadium on a six-game winning streak and sitting in the No. 2 spot in the AFC. On the flip side, Mike Vrabel’s squad will be facing one of its toughest and quite frankly one of its only tests to date. This will be a measuring stick for the Patriots, as they are 7-2 and have been playing good football, though they’ve been doing so against the league’s easiest schedule.

While Tampa Bay is looking for a fifth straight division title and a sixth consecutive playoff appearance, New England is looking to snap a three-year playoff drought.

Let’s dive further into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in this NFC-AFC matchup on Sunday afternoon as the Bucs look for their first-ever win over the Patriots at Raymond James Stadium:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Patriots Matchup?

Which version of the Bucs offense is going to show up on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium? Will it be the explosive unit that showed up in the second half of the Week 4 loss to the Eagles and the 38- and 30-point efforts the following two weeks in wins over the Seahawks and 49ers, respectively? Or will it be the group that was held to nine points in a loss to the Lions in Week 7 and only 16 against the 1-win Saints just before the bye week? The answer to that question could dictate the flow of this game.

Bucs OC Josh Grizzard and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In one sense, it will depend heavily on which Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay gets. He was playing hero, MVP-level football for the first six weeks of the season, but in the last two games before the bye, his play dipped. Part of that was the pressure allowed by the offensive line and the continued lack of success for the Buccaneer rushing attack, but there was also the fact that Mayfield – whether because of the defense taking rushing lanes away or the knee injury that landed him on the injury report – was unable to make some of those game-changing scramble plays that we saw early on this season.

There’s more to it than Mayfield, though a return to his form in Weeks 1-6 would be a boost for the Bucs, especially against a top-10 defense like the Patriots’. He could use some help around him, of course, and he may get some up front with the offensive line if right tackle Luke Goedeke is able to suit up and play for the first time since Week 2. If Goedeke is good to go, Tampa Bay will at least have 4/5 of its starting offensive line for the first time all season, which would be big in terms of protection for Mayfield as well as the rushing attack, even if Bucky Irving is still sidelined.

If Irving still can’t return to the field, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker will have their work cut out for them against the NFL’s top-ranked run defense. New England is only allowing 75.4 rushing yards per game, which isn’t a good sign for Tampa Bay, which is averaging 98.1 rushing yards per game to rank 24th in the league. So, as much as it would help to get more from the backfield, the offense’s success in this matchup likely comes down to Mayfield, whether he gets protection up front and whether the likes of Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson, Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton can continue to step up with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan out.

As much as Mayfield and the passing game may have to carry their weight in this game, the Bucs defense will have a lot of pressure on it, too. Todd Bowles‘ group has gotten some stellar play from guys at every level so far this year, and things have really begun to come together as of late. While the defense was playing fundamentally sound football and only allowing a few explosive plays here and there early on in the season, there was still a frustrating lack of takeaways. But that has changed in recent weeks, with multiple takeaways in each of the last four games, including four in Week 8 against the Saints.

Bucs ILB Lavonte David and CB Zyon McCollum – Photo by: USA Today

That run of takeaways needs to continue for the Bucs if they’re going to slow down this Patriots offense on Sunday afternoon. Whether it’s a sack-fumble from Yaya Diaby, Anthony Nelson, Vita Vea or a blitzing SirVocea Dennis, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield Jr., Jacob Parrish or Tykee Smith, or Zyon McCollum‘s first interception of the year (or Jamel Dean‘s fourth), forcing New England into mistakes will be crucial. The Patriots have turned the ball over 11 times in nine games, and the Bucs will need to add to that total.

Sacks have been on the rise for the Buccaneer defense lately, too. Tampa Bay sacked Mac Jones six times in Week 6, took down Jared Goff four times in Week 7 and sacked Saints quarterbacks five times in Week 8. Diaby leads the team with four, while Nelson trails behind him with three after a massive performance last time out. Bowles has been dialing up blitzes from every direction, too, getting David to 2.5 and Dennis, Parrish and Smith two each. Look for Bowles to send plenty of pressure on Drake Maye, who has been sacked 34 times this year, including six times in last week’s 24-23 win over the Falcons while being blitzed on 63% of his dropbacks.

For the Patriots, it’ll be all about keeping Maye upright and comfortable against a Bowles defense that will be looking to rattle him from all angles. The second-year quarterback has been remarkably efficient this season, as he comes in having completed 74.1% of his passes through nine games for 2,285 yards and 17 touchdowns to four interceptions. He’s taken the big Year 2 leap New England was hoping for, and he’s one of the main reasons why Mike Vrabel‘s first year as the head coach of his old team is going so well.

Patriots HC Mike Vrabel and QB Drake Maye – Photo by: USA Today

The aforementioned sack total has been the one problem for Maye and the Patriots’ passing attack. Allowing nearly four sacks per game isn’t a recipe for success, and that’s perhaps even more so the case when you’re matching up with a Bowles-led defense that prides itself on getting to the quarterback. Getting the ball out quickly to neutralize the rush may be a heavy part of the gameplan for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

The other potential game-specific issue for Maye and the New England offense is that they may be without second-leading receiver Kayshon Boutte, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. He said earlier this week he would be trying to give it a go against the Bucs, but that may not be wise given the nature of hamstring injuries and the Tampa weather. He is averaging a team-leading 18.7 yards per catch this season and also leads the Patriots with five touchdown catches, so if they’re without him against the Bucs, it’ll be up to the receiving corps’ depth to make up for his absence.

What could help offset the potential loss of Boutte and key New England’s offense in this game is trying to create mismatches with the Bucs’ linebacking corps. Dennis and David (more so Dennis) have been caught out in pass coverage too many times this year, so if TreVeyon Henderson or Rhamondre Stevenson can contribute more as pass-catchers, it could prove to be a significant boost for Maye and the offense. So far, Stevenson has been a slightly more productive receiver than the rookie running back out of Ohio State, as he has 16 catches on 19 targets for 169 yards (10.6 avg.) while Henderson has 20 catches on 24 targets for just 131 yards (6.6 avg.).

Patriots OLBs Harold Landry III and K’Lavon Chaisson – Photo by: USA Today

As far as Vrabel’s defense, it’s clear from previous weeks that the way to beat Mayfield and this Buccaneer offense is to get pressure on him and force him into off-balance or back-foot throws. Taking away his scrambling lanes is a huge key as well, so whether it’s with a collective effort or a quarterback spy, that may need to be a priority for the Patriots. They’ll need big games out of their edge rushers, which will be a tougher ask if Goedeke is back in the lineup. If that’s the case, Goedeke and Tristan Wirfs against Harold Landry III and K’Lavon Chaisson (5.5 sacks each) becomes one of the game-deciding matchups to watch.

The other big focus for the New England defense and specifically the secondary will be Emeka Egbuka, the star rookie wide receiver who continues to lead the way for all pass-catchers on the team. If the Patriots can take him away or even limit him, it forces the Bucs to try to beat them with Tez Johnson, Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton. Those are all solid players, but given the choice, you’d take your chances against them over Egbuka, who has 34 catches for 562 yards (16.5 avg.) and five touchdowns this season.

Takeaways would obviously help New England, too, though they’ve been harder to come by against this Buccaneer offense in 2025. Tampa Bay has turned the ball over only five times, which has contributed to its plus-seven turnover differential, the fourth-best mark in the league. If the Patriots can force Mayfield into a mistake or two, that could prove to be the difference maker on their way to a possible road upset.

Key Players To Watch

The player to watch on the Buccaneer offense is someone we just talked about: Emeka Egbuka. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan out, Egbuka is the only one of the Bucs’ top four receivers who is still in the lineup. And while asking him to be a No. 1 wide receiver this early in his career feels like a lot, he’s clearly proven he can handle it. His maturity and football I.Q. are off the charts, and both have been on display from the day he stepped in the building. He’ll need to be a big factor in Sunday’s game if the offense is going to do enough to earn a win against a tough defense.

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With Haason Reddick still out with an injury, Yaya Diaby needs to keep rounding into being the No. 1 pass rusher the Bucs think he can be. He leads the defense with 28 pressures this year and has four sacks to his name and has really begun to play well in recent weeks. Considering the importance of getting pressure on Drake Maye and adding three, four, five or even six sacks to the 34 times he’s already been sacked this season, Diaby will need to have a huge game on Sunday against rookie tackle Will Campbell, who has allowed 20 pressures and five sacks already this year.

With Tampa Bay bound to bring the pressure on New England’s young star quarterback, Hunter Henry may need to be a bigger factor for the Patriots on Sunday. He can be Maye’s safety blanket as he looks to beat the rush, and the veteran tight end’s productivity becomes even more of a need if Kayshon Boutte is unable to suit up. Henry has 29 catches on 43 targets for 368 yards (12.7 avg.) and four touchdowns this season, and his 22 first downs is the second-most on the team.

Robert Spillane has been the big playmaker for the New England defense this year. The 29-year-old  linebacker leads the team with 72 tackles (37 solo) and has a sack, three tackles for loss, three passes defensed, two interceptions (with a combined 70 return yards) and a forced fumble. He has had double-digit combined tackles in four games this season and has been a key force in the middle of the league’s top-ranked run defense, with a 90.3 PFF run defense grade. That’s the fifth-best mark in the NFL among linebackers.