The Bucs knew they’d have it tough coming out of their bye week, but just in case they needed a reality check or a reminder that such would be the case, the Patriots were happy to give them one on their home field in Week 10. Now, 6-3 Tampa Bay has to hit the road for back-to-back games against playoff teams, the first of which will come Sunday afternoon against 6-3 Buffalo at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park.

Tampa Bay will be looking to avoid a third loss in its last four games, but it’s certainly going to be tough given Buffalo is also coming in off a loss and hasn’t lost back-to-back games twice in the same season since 2018, which was Josh Allen’s rookie year. Not to mention, the Bucs are winless in their three previous trips to Buffalo and will be looking for their first-ever road win over the Bills.

While their loss in Week 10 didn’t cost them anything in the NFC South race, it did drop the Bucs from the No. 2 seed in the NFC to the No. 4 seed. Given how tough the conference is this season, they can’t afford to keep dropping games and sliding deeper into that No. 4 slot, as that would likely set them up with an NFC Wild Card matchup against the Rams, Seahawks, Packers or Lions, which certainly wouldn’t be ideal.

So, while this isn’t exactly do-or-die for Todd Bowles and Co., there is some pressure to pull themselves together and earn an upset win to get back on track ahead of their big Sunday Night Football game against the Rams in Week 12.

Before we dive further in our “What to Watch For” preview later this week, here’s a general preview of Sunday’s matchup between Bowles’ Bucs and Sean McDermott’s Bills:

The Last Time…

The Bucs and Bills last met only two years ago in the same place, with Tampa Bay heading up to Highmark Stadium for a Thursday Night Football contest. It didn’t work out well for the road team that day, with Todd Bowles’ defense having few answers for Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense while Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense struggled to sustain drives and were largely held in check in a 24-18 loss.

The Bills went up 10-0 early on that night, but the Bucs did well to respond, first with a 57-yard Chase McLaughlin field goal and then with a game-tying touchdown pass from Mayfield to Chris Godwin Jr. after a Will Gholston interception gave the offense a short field.

But after Tampa Bay tied the game at 10, Buffalo went on a 14-0 run with Allen touchdown passes to Dalton Kincaid and Gabe Davis.

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid and Bucs SS Ryan Neal – Photo by: USA Today

Mayfield did lead a 17-play, 92-yard drive that took 7:21 late in the game, finding Mike Evans for a touchdown and Cade Otton for a two-point conversion. But while the Bucs did get the ball back, a Hail Mary attempt from Mayfield painfully fell to the ground right next to Godwin, who couldn’t get his head around in time and adjust to track the ball in for what would’ve been a miracle of a game-winner.

In the all-time series, the Bucs lead the Bills 8-5. Weirdly enough, the first eight games between the two teams all came in Tampa. The Bucs didn’t make their first-ever trip to Buffalo until 2009. They lost that day, again on a return trip in 2017 and most recently in that 2023 primetime game. Of course, the two teams also met at Raymond James Stadium back in August for their respective preseason finales, though there’s going to be very little familiarity come Sunday given that starters were understandably held out for that game.

How The Bucs And Bills Are Trending

It’s hard to tell what to make of the Bucs right now. On the one hand, they’re 6-3 with some key wins over the Falcons, Texans, Seahawks and 49ers. They also have a 1.5-game lead in the NFC South race and are barreling toward a fifth straight division title. But on the other hand, they’ve lost two of their last three games and their offense hasn’t looked right in all three of those games. Then again, those two losses came to the 6-3 Lions and 8-2 Patriots, and their only other loss this season came against the 7-2, defending Super Bowl champion Eagles.

So, what is this Tampa Bay team? Is it the same kind of team we’ve seen over the last few years that can win a weak NFC South but not really threaten to make a deep playoff run? Or is this team different? For much of the first half of the season, it felt like a different kind of Bucs team. But in recent weeks, it’s become less clear. And while things are never this simple, Sunday’s game in Buffalo against the 6-3 Bills and next Sunday night’s matchup in Los Angeles against the 7-2 Rams may better answer the question of who this team actually is.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

If the Bucs are going to manage even a split in these next two weeks to head into the final weekend of November at 7-4, they’re going to need better play out of quarterback Baker Mayfield. After playing his way firmly into the MVP conversation over the first six weeks of the season, he has cooled off considerably over the last three games. He still has 2,192 yards and 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions while completing 64.1% of his passes.

But in the last three games, he has completed 60.7% of his passes for 653 yards and four touchdowns to one interception. That’s not necessarily bad by any means, but Tampa Bay has scored on only 30.3% of its drives over that span and has come away with touchdowns on only 15.1% of those drives. The run game started to pick up a little bit against a tough New England run defense in Week 10, but offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard needs to get more out of his quarterback and his offense as a whole – and he needs to do it soon.

Getting healthier at some point would help, but as good as it was to see Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr. back on the practice field on Wednesday, it was still just a walkthrough and doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be ready for Sunday’s game against the Bills. Rookie wide receivers Emeka Egbuka (40 catches, 677 yards, six touchdowns) and Tez Johnson (19 catches, 255 yards, four touchdowns) have come up huge in the absences of Godwin, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, but the Bucs are still missing quite a bit of production regardless, and the likes of Sterling Shepard and Kameron Johnson can’t exactly make up the rest.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs have been a bit weird defensively, too. The sacks and takeaways mostly dried up against the Patriots in Week 10, but the unit still played well for long stretches of that game against Drake Maye and a blossoming New England offense. The killers were the explosive plays – a 72-yard touchdown catch by Kyle Williams, a 54-yard catch by Mack Hollins on a third and long and 55- and 69-yard touchdown runs by TreVeyon Henderson. Todd Bowles was (rightfully) pissed after that game, and you can bet the emphasis this week will be on limiting the explosives, especially against an offense that features Josh Allen and James Cook.

As for the Bills, their season up to this point shares some similarities with the Bucs’, beyond the fact that both teams are 6-3 heading into Sunday’s game. Buffalo, like Tampa Bay, hasn’t exactly had an up-and-down season, but it’s been a campaign with some high highs – a 41-40 Week 1 win over the Ravens, a 40-9 throttling of the Panthers and a hard-fought 28-21 victory over the hated Chiefs two weeks ago – as well as some low lows. Those lows came in the form of back-to-back losses to the Patriots and Falcons after a 4-0 start, as well as a 30-13 loss to the Dolphins this past Sunday.

So, what do you make of the Bills? Sean McDermott and Co. still have the fifth-best odds to win the Super Bowl, even ahead of the Patriots, who lead them in the AFC East by 1.5 games entering Week 11. They have the reigning MVP in Allen under center, and he’s always going to give them a chance. Allen, who is also a three-time Pro Bowler, is 82-37 in his time as Buffalo’s starter and remains a true dual threat with his arm (2,139 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 70.3% completion percentage) and his legs (311 yards, seven touchdowns).

Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

In the Buffalo passing game, it’s largely been a receiver-by-committee effort rather than one guy stepping up and leading the way. There was plenty of rumblings that Allen could’ve used another receiver at his disposal at the trade deadline, but nothing came to fruition. So, it’s up to Khalil Shakir (45 catches, 457 yards, three touchdowns), Keon Coleman (32/330/three) and Joshua Palmer (14/234/zero) to lead the way at receiver while Dalton Kincaid (29/448/four) and Dawson Knox (12/155/one) continue to be threats at tight end. Of note, Kincaid – the Bills’ second-leading receiver – left last week’s game and is week-to-week with a hamstring injury.

It does helps the Bills offense that Cook is having a breakout year. It feels weird to say that about a guy who ran for 1,000 yards in both 2023 and 2024 and finished last year with 16 touchdowns on the ground (as well as another two through the air), but he’s been on a different level in 2025. Through nine games, he already has 920 yards and seven touchdowns and comes into this weekend’s game averaging 5.5 yards per carry. After Henderson’s big day against the Tampa Bay defense last Sunday, Cook will once again threaten the Bucs’ gap integrity and test whether they’ve gotten the message about limiting those explosive plays.

Bills S Jordan Poyer and CB Tre’davious White – Photo by: USA Today

It’s been an up-and-down year defensively for Buffalo. The 40-point game the Bills allowed to the Ravens stands out for sure, but the fact that they allowed 21 points to the Dolphins in their first meeting back in September and then 30 in their rematch this past week is pretty glaring, too. But there are some good games to point to as well, including allowing only 23 points to the high-flying Patriots offense, keeping the Panthers to nine points in Charlotte and holding Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to 21. It’s clear what the problem has been for Buffalo, as the defense ranks third against the pass but 30th against the run.

Injuries have been a problem for Buffalo on defense, and the fact that 11 defensive players showed up on the first injury report of the week is the most recent bit of proof. Nonetheless, this is a defense that has some talented playmakers. The Bills have 11 takeaways over their nine games so far, with 2024 second-round pick Cole Bishop and 2025 first-rounder Maxwell Hairston (despite being limited to three games thus far) both having two interceptions apiece to lead the way.

Here’s how the Bucs and Bills stack up heading into Week 10:

Bucs Offense: 11th in scoring offense (24.4 PPG), 17th in total offense (328.3 yards per game), 14th in passing offense (228.6 yards per game), 25th in rushing offense (99.8 yards per game)

Bills Offense: 6th in scoring offense (27.6 PPG), 2nd in total offense (384.4 yards per game), 12th in passing offense (231.2 yards per game), 1st in rushing offense (153.2 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 14th in scoring defense (22.9 points allowed per game), 20th in total defense (334.0 yards allowed per game), 24th in passing defense (233.2 yards allowed per game), 11th in rushing defense (100.8 yards allowed per game)

Bills Defense: 11th in scoring defense (21.9 points allowed per game), 14th in total defense (317.8 yards allowed per game), 3rd in passing defense (170.2 yards allowed per game), 30th in rushing defense (147.6 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Bucs are 5.5-point underdogs, with the Over/Under set at 48 (per Hard Rock Bet).

Bucs at Bills Game Information

When: Sunday, November 16
Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS – Ian Eagle (Play by Play), J.J. Watt (Analyst), Evan Washburn (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Martín Gramática, Santiago Gramática