Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Tampa Bay is now 6-3 following a tough, 28-23 loss at home to the 8-2 New England Patriots. The Bucs are looking to bounce back on the road and avoid losing back-to-back games for the first time this season. After an emotional, hard-fought, 28-21 win over the Chiefs in Buffalo, the 6-3 Bills went on the road to Miami and were upset by the 3-7 Dolphins. Buffalo has not lost back-to-back games since 2018, which was Josh Allen’s rookie season.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs?

For the 6-3 Buccaneers, this Week 11 trip to Buffalo is about proving they can be a great team rather than just a good team. Great teams don’t lose back-to-back games, and even head coach Todd Bowles said this week that Tampa Bay wasn’t a great team yet. The Bucs’ six wins have kept them firmly atop the NFC South, but this matchup against the 6-3 Bills is a litmus test of just how legitimate this team really is. Bowles’ Bucs have been resilient all year, but this is one of those statement games that can either solidify their playoff positioning or expose some cracks heading into the stretch run.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Bills HC Sean McDermott – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs can’t afford to let this opportunity slip. A win in Buffalo would give Tampa Bay a 7-3 record and send a message that they can beat playoff-caliber teams in cold-weather environments – something that could matter come January. A loss, though, could drop them back into the middle of the NFC pack and tighten the race in the South if Atlanta or Carolina picks up a win.

This is also a big test for Baker Mayfield and the offense to show they can operate efficiently against one of the league’s toughest defenses. The Bucs have a promising record to start the season and have three losses to very good teams in the Eagles (7-2), the Lions (6-3) and the Patriots (8-2). But in Buffalo, they’ll need to come into Sunday’s game pissed off about last week’s loss and show the necessary grit, execution, and mental toughness to avoid losing two straight.

What’s At Stake For The Bills?

For the 6-3 Bills, this Week 11 matchup against the visiting Buccaneers is about regaining their swagger and reasserting themselves as one of the AFC’s elite teams. Buffalo has been inconsistent this season – mixing dominant performances with puzzling lapses. And this game is a chance to steady the ship before the stretch run. Buffalo is behind New England in the AFC East and needs to catch up, so this game carries extra weight.

Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense need to get back to playing with confidence and rhythm after some uneven outings. Facing a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed some costly big plays this year, Allen will have to make smart decisions and avoid the turnovers that have cost Buffalo in key moments. Running back James Cook must step up as a runner and receiver and make big plays, while reserve tight end Dawson Knox and the receivers need to step up for injured tight end Dalton Kincaid.

Defensively, Sean McDermott’s unit must contain Baker Mayfield and a Bucs offense that’s found ways to win tough games more often than not. A win here would push the Bills to 7-3 and keep them firmly in control of their playoff destiny. A loss, though, would spark more questions about their consistency and ability to close out quality opponents. Which Bills team shows up? The one that beat Kansas City at home two weeks ago, 28-21, or the one that got drubbed in Miami, 30-13?

The Bucs Win If…

For the Buccaneers to beat the Bills in Buffalo, they’ll need to play one of their most complete games of the season, and that starts with better execution on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Tampa Bay must find balance early and run the ball as effectively as the team did last week with 113 yards against a stingy Patriots run defense. Baker Mayfield has been at his best when the Bucs can establish some semblance of a rushing attack to keep defenses honest. Using Sean Tucker’s speed more would be wise for Josh Grizzard in Tucker’s homecoming game. He played collegiately at Syracuse.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

That’ll be critical against a Bills defense that thrives on forcing third-and-long situations and pressuring quarterbacks into mistakes. Mayfield must stay poised, take what the defense gives him, be efficient on third downs and capitalize on red zone chances because points in Buffalo don’t come easy. Not only must Mayfield continue to feed Emeka Egbuka in the passing game, but he needs to do a better job of seeing the field and finding Tez Johnson, who was open quite a bit last week versus the Patriots. Johnson wound up with two late touchdown receptions in Week 10.

Defensively, Todd Bowles’ group has to make Josh Allen uncomfortable and limit his dual-threat impact. That means disciplined rush lanes to contain him in the pocket and tight coverage on the back end to prevent explosive plays. The Bucs’ front seven – led by Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and Yaya Diaby – must control the line of scrimmage to shut down James Cook in the running game. The linebackers must also limit his yards after catch on swing passes and screens. If the defense continues to take the ball away it will leave Buffalo with an upset win.

The Bills Win If …

For the Bills to beat the Bucs at home, they’ll need to play a sharp, disciplined brand of football on both sides of the ball, which is something that’s eluded them at times this season. Offensively, it starts with Josh Allen. When Allen has time in the pocket, protects the football, and picks his spots to improvise, Buffalo’s offense can be nearly unstoppable. The Bills’ disappointing receiving corps must step up, though – especially without pass-catching tight end Dalton Kincaid.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

Against Todd Bowles’ aggressive defense, Allen must stay patient, take the underneath throws, and avoid forcing passes into tight coverage. Establishing a steady run game with James Cook will also be crucial to keep Tampa Bay’s pass rush honest and open up play-action opportunities across the middle to Khalil Shakir and Joshua Palmer, if Palmer is healthy enough to play.

Defensively, the Bills have to make Baker Mayfield uncomfortable from the opening snap and take away Tampa Bay’s ground game. That means stuffing the run and collapsing the pocket with massive defensive tackle Deone Walker and defensive end Greg Rousseau, while disguising coverages to bait Mayfield into mistakes. Tampa Bay likes to take shots downfield to Emeka Egbuka, so Buffalo’s secondary – despite being banged up – must tackle well and limit explosive plays. If the Bills can win on third down, control time of possession, and keep Allen from turning the ball over, they’ll get the bounce-back win they’re looking for.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka vs. Bills Cornerbacks

Without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr., Emeka Egbuka has had to step up and be Tampa Bay’s featured receiver in the passing game. So far, the team’s first-round pick has been up to the challenge. He’s coming off a six-catch, 115-yard performance against the Patriots on Sunday in which he scored his sixth touchdown of his rookie season. Egbuka now has three 100-yard receiving games so far, and is in contention for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors as well as being on pace for a 1,200-yard season.

Bucs RG Cody Mauch and WR Emeka Egbuka – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Egbuka will need a similar performance to help the Bucs win on the road in Buffalo, which is a tough place to play. In fact, Tampa Bay has never won at Buffalo in any of the 50 years the franchise has been in existence. Egbuka has played well on the road so far this year with his best day so far coming at Seattle in a 38-35 win with seven catches for 163 yards and a touchdown. The Ohio State product also caught game-winning touchdowns in the first two weeks at Atlanta and at Houston.

Tre’Davious White is still a solid cornerback at age 30, but he’s not the explosive playmaker he was in his younger years during his first stint with the team. Still, he’s a savvy, crafty veteran who can give Egbuka problems. The Bills will also look to match up first-round pick Maxwell Hairston on Egbuka. The rookie has missed some time due to injury, but he’s the fastest player on defense and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions. Buffalo’s primary focus on defense will be containing Egbuka and not letting him make big plays downfield.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Defense vs. Bills RB James Cook III

It might take the entire Tampa Bay defense to do the job of bottling up Buffalo running back James Cook III. Without tight end Dalton Kincaid, and with Buffalo working with a lackluster wide receiver corps, the NFL’s second-leading rusher will have Todd Bowles’ full attention. Cook is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season with 920 yards rushing with seven touchdowns and a healthy 5.5-yard average.

Former Bucs ILB Devin White and Bills RB James Cook – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs have given up too many explosive plays to running backs this year, whether it was the 50-yard touchdown on catch-and-run by Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson, a 30-yard reception and a 78-yard by Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs, or allowing New England’s TreVeyon Henderson to rip off touchdown runs of 55 and 69 yards last week. Cook has five 100-yard rushing games so far, including a monster 214-yard game at Carolina in which he ripped off a 64-yard run. Maintaining gap integrity and tackling well will be prioritized by Bowles’ defense on Sunday.

Cook is just as dangerous as a receiver coming out of the backfield, and covering backs in the flat has been a problem for Tampa Bay’s linebackers this year. Although he only has 18 catches for 124 yards this season, he’s capable of taking any reception the distance at any time. It will take every one of the Bucs defenders to take the proper angle and use the proper tackling technique to get Cook down. He’s not the biggest back at 5-foot-10, 190 pounds, but he’s elusive and does a great job of slipping tackles like Bucky Irving does.