Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Tampa Bay is now 6-4 after a brutal, 44-32 loss at Buffalo to the 7-3 Bills. The Bucs offense is looking to continue to rev up after rushing for over 200 yards against a porous Bills run defense, but the unit will face a much stiffer challenge against a stingy Rams defense on Sunday.

After allowing three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns to Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, Todd Bowles’ defense must stop giving up big plays, generate more sacks and play better in the red zone to force field goals. That’s easier said than done against Sean McVay’s offense, which features a legit NFL MVP candidate in Matthew Stafford.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs?

At 6-4, the Buccaneers enter their Week 12 trip to Los Angeles facing a moment that could define the trajectory of their season. Dropping to 6-5 in a crowded NFC could put Tampa Bay back into the Wild Card logjam coupled with a win by 6-5 Carolina at San Francisco.

But a win over the 8-2 Rams – perhaps the best team in the NFC next to the 8-2 Eagles – would do more than just keep the Bucs’ lead in the NFC South. It would validate the Bucs as legitimate playoff threats capable of beating elite teams on the road and take some heat off head coach Todd Bowles, who would avoid losing three straight games for the third year in a row.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Rams QB Matthew Stafford – Photo by: USA Today

This is also a barometer game for a Tampa Bay defense that has given up over 800 yards and 72 points in the last two losses to New England and Buffalo. Bowles’ unit has been picked apart by two very good quarterbacks in Drake Maye and Josh Allen, both of whom are contenders for the NFL MVP award. But Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford is playing even better, throwing for an NFL-leading 27 touchdowns with just two interceptions.

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense needs to prove it can match the firepower of a high-octane Rams attack to help out a Tampa Bay defense that will struggle to defend wide receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and running back Kyren Williams. Mayfield needs to play out of his mind and the offense will need to fire on all cylinders and score at least 30 points to try keep up with the Rams. That will be easier said than done against the league’s second-best scoring defense, as L.A. is only allowing 17.2 points per game.

What’s At Stake For The Rams?

At 8-2, the Rams find themselves in prime position to chase the NFC’s No. 1 seed – but that margin is razor thin, which makes this matchup against Bucs far more significant than the records alone suggest. A win keeps Los Angeles firmly in control of its postseason path, maintaining pressure on conference contenders like the Eagles, 49ers, Lions, and Seahawks, whom the Rams beat last week. A loss, though, could drop the Rams into the mix of teams fighting for seeding rather than dictating it, erasing the cushion they’ve worked to build.

Rams HC Sean McVay and QB Matthew Stafford – Photo by: USA Today

This game also carries weight for a Rams team looking to show it can close out the season with the same sharpness it started with. Sean McVay’s group has thrived behind Matthew Stafford’s efficiency and a ground game featuring Kyren Williams. L.A. has won five straight games and only lost two this year – a 33-26 defeat at Philadelphia and a 26-23 overtime loss to San Francisco.

The Rams should come into this week’s game on Sunday Night Football full of confidence. For Los Angeles, this is both a business game and a statement game. Win, and the Rams strengthen their grip on the NFC hierarchy. Lose, and the chase for home-field advantage suddenly becomes much tighter – and much more complicated.

McVay’s offense has had quite a bit of mastery over Todd Bowles’ defenses, averaging 28.8 points per games in five meetings since 2019. The lone outlier was a 16-13 loss at Tampa Bay in 2022 when L.A. was decimated with injuries and coming off a Super Bowl hangover. Take that game out and Rams have averaged 32.8 points per game vs. Bowles – and those defenses had more star power, featuring Ndamukong Suh, Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, a younger Lavonte David in his prime and others.

The Bucs Win If…

To beat the Rams in Los Angeles, the Bucs must deliver their most complete, disciplined performance of the season. It starts with controlling the tempo on offense. Tampa Bay can’t afford a shootout against a Rams team that thrives on explosive plays and momentum swings.

The Bucs need balance – a steady dose of Sean Tucker and Rachaad White to keep the Rams’ pass rush honest – paired with a sharp, rhythmic passing game from Baker Mayfield. Sustaining drives, converting third downs, and finishing in the red zone are critical. Field goals won’t beat a team as efficient as the Rams.

Bucs CB Benjamin Morrison and Bills WR Tyrell Shavers – Photo by: USA Today

Defensively, the Bucs must disrupt Matthew Stafford’s timing and make the Rams earn every yard. That means disciplined, tight zone coverage, sure tackling, and limiting yards after the catch against a Sean McVay offense built on misdirection.

The front seven must bottle up Kyren Williams to force Stafford into longer down-and-distance situations, where Tampa Bay’s pressure packages might tilt the matchup if Todd Bowles’ blitzes can get home. Bowles must protect rookie cornerback Benjamin Morrison from getting targeted, as both Drake Maye and Josh Allen picked on him for touchdown passes in consecutive weeks.

Special teams and turnover margin also loom large. The Bucs need to steal a couple of possessions and win the turnover battle by at least two. That’s easier said than done as the Rams are plus-10 in turnover differential – slightly ahead of the Bucs, who are plus-9. Tampa Bay must play far better on special teams and not have that area be a weakness – yet again.

The Rams Win If…

Los Angeles needs to attack on offense early and make Tampa Bay play from behind. It starts with Matthew Stafford getting into rhythm and being aggressive, attacking a Bucs secondary that has been vulnerable to chunk plays and communication lapses. Sean McVay should lean into play-action, boots, and layered route concepts that stress Tampa Bay’s linebackers and safeties while picking on rookie cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who has struggled while giving up two long touchdowns in back-to-back games.

Establishing Kyren Williams on the ground is equally important – not just for balance, but to neutralize Tampa Bay’s pass rush and open up Stafford’s downfield opportunities.

Rams OLBs Jared Verse and Byron Young – Photo by: USA Today

Defensively, the Rams must take away Baker Mayfield’s ability to scramble with spying linebackers, and leading tackler Nate Landman, who has 90 stops and four forced fumbles, is the right man for the job. That means pressure with discipline off the edge with outside linebackers Byron Young and Jared Verse, forcing him off his spot without allowing escape lanes.

Limiting a Tampa Bay run game that has averaged over 150 yards in the last two weeks is critical, as well as double-covering Emeka Egbuka with bracket coverage to force Mayfield away from his No. 1 target.

Tampa Bay struggles in the red zone, especially in goal-to-go situations. If Los Angeles can play good red zone defense and force field goals while its offense scores touchdowns, the Rams can not only win, but do so convincingly. The Bucs are averaging 25.2 points per game, yet allowing 25 points per game. The Rams are averaging 27.2 points per game, yet allowing only 17.2 points per game.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield vs. Himself

The Rams defense is loaded with playmakers, from leading sacker Byron Young, who has nine sacks, to fellow edge rusher Jared Verse, who has four. Los Angeles’ inside linebackers are smart and athletic, led by Nate Landman, who leads the team in tackles with 90, along with four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and 1.5 sacks on the year. The Rams secondary is opportunistic with 10 interceptions on the year, including two apiece by four L.A. defensive backs.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

That’s quite a bit to contend with on all three levels of Chris Shula’s defense. But Mayfield’s biggest challenge may not be the opponents he’ll face on Sunday Night Football. It might be himself as it pertains to his decision-making. Over the last four games, Mayfield has missed open receivers while trying to force the ball into the hands of talented wide receiver Emeka Egbuka.

Some of those forced throws wind up being incomplete instead of completions to other open targets. And some of the completions to Egbuka are shorter gains and Mayfield is passing up better options for more yardage elsewhere. In this game, Mayfield needs to avoid playing skittish in the pocket and scanning the entire field to make the right throw to the right option – whether it is the first read or later in the progression.

Mayfield must also do a better job of taking the checkdown pass to either running back Rachaad White or Sean Tucker. The Bucs quarterback needs to be locked in like he was at Seattle and play within himself and not try to do too much that can lead to costly interceptions like the one he threw in the second half at Buffalo last week.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs CB Benjamin Morrison vs. Rams WRs Davante Adams and Puka Nacua

Bucs rookie cornerback Benjamin Morrison is expected to get his first NFL start in Week 12 on Sunday Night Football. It could not come at a worse time against a worse opponent. Morrison, who will likely start at left cornerback for the injured Jamel Dean, has struggled in extended playing time over the past two weeks. The team’s second-round pick gave up a 72-yard touchdown to Patriots receiver Kyle Williams in Week 10 and then surrendered a 43-yard touchdown to Bills receiver Tyrell Shavers last week.

Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams – Photo by: USA Today

Expect Rams offensive coordinator Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford to target Morrison early and often on Sunday night. Morrison will see both Puka Nacua, who is top five in catches (73) and yards (850) this year, as well as Davante Adams, who leads the NFL with 10 touchdowns.

Both are savvy veteran receivers with a wide array of moves they can use to get open against the rookie cornerback, and it could get ugly for Morrison and Tampa Bay’s secondary, which has been feast or famine since the Detroit game back in Week 7.

Morrison missed four weeks of training camp and all three preseason games due to a hamstring injury, and he’s trying to make up for lost time in terms of gaining experience during the regular season. It’s an uphill climb that the Notre Dame product will experience for the reason of the season in a trial-by-fire campaign.

Morrison was a ballhawk in college and if there was ever a time for him to rise up and get his first NFL interception, it couldn’t come at a better time than against either Adams or Nacua on Sunday Night Football.