The month of November has changed a whole lot for the Bucs.

After avoiding an October slide for the first time under head coach Todd Bowles, things were looking up. Despite a bad loss to the Lions on Monday Night Football on Oct. 20, the Bucs bounced back and beat the Saints in Week 8 before hitting their bye week at 6-2. But the lack of an October slump ultimately just meant that the annual slump would come in November instead.

Since its Week 9 bye, Tampa Bay has lost three straight games. That makes it four losses in the last five games and has dropped the team from 5-1 to 6-5. The Buccaneer defense is putting in putrid performance after putrid performance and the injuries have continued to pile up.

The latest hit to the team’s pursuit of an NFC South five-peat came on Sunday night with a 34-7 loss to the Rams, a loss that also saw quarterback Baker Mayfield leave the game with a shoulder sprain that has his status for Week 13 and beyond up in the air.

So, while the Panthers — who temporarily pulled even with the Bucs atop the NFC South after Sunday night — failed to capitalize and lost to the 49ers on Monday night to remain a half-game back in the divisional race, the path to a fifth straight division title and a sixth straight playoff appearance is much harder with Mayfield less than 100% or not playing at all.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

The good news for Tampa Bay amid its three-game slide was that the schedule lightens up from Week 13 until the end of the season. With games against 3-8 Arizona, 2-9 New Orleans and 4-7 Atlanta — all at Raymond James Stadium — coming up, that was supposed to provide an easy runway for a bounce-back. That 6-5 record was expected to pretty easily hit 9-5 (or at least 8-6) before the Bucs were set to meet the Panthers in Charlotte on Dec. 21.

But with Mayfield sidelined, or even with a banged-up/limited Mayfield, the next three games are far from being gimmes for the Bucs, especially with the way the defense is playing. It does help that the Panthers have a tough schedule to close out the season and they haven’t been the most consistent team over the first 12 weeks, but the vibes in Tampa have hit a season low and this team has to turn them around quickly if it wants to keep its reign atop the division alive.

With that said, though, that’s perhaps the biggest point of change for the Bucs during November. Another NFC South title, while nice considering the long drought without one from 2008-2020, is starting to feel more and more like the ceiling for this year’s team. There was a time when it all felt so different and looked like there was a chance for this to be a special type of season, but the Lions, Patriots, Bills and Rams have shown that this Bucs team just isn’t on that next level this year.

Instead, it very well could become the same old story under Bowles, and that’s winning a weak NFC South and suffering an early exit in the playoffs. There’s time for this team to change that feeling, of course, but that’s where things are right now. And that’s an empty feeling after a promising 5-1 start that featured wins over the Texans, Seahawks and 49ers.

Rams WR Davante Adams and Bucs CB Zyon McCollum – Photo by: USA Today

Elsewhere in the NFC South in Week 12, the Falcons finally stopped their skid by beating the hapless Saints, 24-10, in New Orleans. With that, Atlanta picked up a game on Tampa Bay in the NFC South race and now sits two games back at 4-7.

NFC South Standings Through Week 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 6-5 (2-0 in NFC South)
Carolina Panthers – 6-6 (2-1 in NFC South) — 0.5 games back
Atlanta Falcons – 4-7 (1-3 in NFC South) — 2 games back
New Orleans Saints – 2-9 (1-2 in NFC South) — 4 games back

Upcoming Schedules for NFC South Contenders:

Bucs: vs. Cardinals (3-8), vs. Saints (2-9), vs. Falcons (4-7), at Panthers (6-6)
Panthers: vs. Rams (9-2), BYE WEEK, at Saints (2-9), vs. Bucs (6-5)
Falcons: at Jets (2-9), vs. Seahawks (8-3), at Bucs (6-5), at Cardinals (3-8)

The other familiar feeling for the Bucs right now is that even if they win the NFC South for a fifth straight season, they’ve played themselves into a spot where they’re very likely to be the NFC division winner with the worst record, meaning the No. 4 seed and a tough matchup against the conference’s No. 5 seed. That’s an even tougher sentence in 2025, as the NFC is stacked from top to bottom and a Wild Card Weekend matchup against the No. 5 seed could mean facing the Seahawks, Rams, Packers or even the 49ers if they stay hot and rise up the standings.

As it stands right now, the Rams’ win over the Bucs paired with the Eagles blowing a 21-point lead and losing to the Cowboys has Los Angeles atop the NFC. Philadelphia slides down to the No. 2 seed, while the NFC North-leading Bears beat the Steelers to keep their hold on the No. 3 seed.

Rams WR Puka Nacua and Bucs CB Jacob Parrish – Photo by: USA Today

The Seahawks took care of business against the Titans to keep the No. 5 seed and remain right behind the Rams in the NFC West. To round out the playoff field, the Packers beat the Vikings and the 49ers beat the Panthers to hold onto the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Lions won a thriller over the Giants to stay in close contention for either a Wild Card spot or the NFC North title. The Thanksgiving Day game between Green Bay and Detroit will have massive playoff implications given the way the standings sit through 12 weeks, and the Black Friday game between Philadelphia and Chicago will be important as well.

NFC Standings Through Week 12

1. Los Angeles Rams – 9-2 
2. Philadelphia Eagles – 8-3 (holds win percentage vs. conference opponents tiebreaker over Bears)
3. Chicago Bears – 8-3
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 6-5
5. Seattle Seahawks – 8-3
6. Green Bay Packers – 7-3-1 
7. San Francisco 49ers – 8-4 

———- IN THE HUNT ———-

8. Detroit Lions – 7-4
9. Carolina Panthers – 6-6 (hold head-to-head tiebreaker over Cowboys)
10. Dallas Cowboys – 5-5-1