A new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts every Tuesday on PewterReport.com. Each week, the Pewter Reporters tackle another tough Bucs question. This week’s prompt: What gives you confidence that the Bucs win the NFC South?

Scott Reynolds: Bucs Defense Is Helping To Win The Turnover Margin

The Bucs have a really chance of winning the NFC South this year because they have done one thing exceptionally well this season – win the turnover battle. Tampa Bay is 5-2 in games in which its won the turnover margin this year, while the Bucs are 0-2 in games they have lost it. In games where the turnover margin has been neutral, the team is 2-1. The Bucs are plus-9 in turnover margin this year, tied with the Texans and Rams for the second-best differential in the NFL behind the Bears, who lead the league with a gaudy plus-17.

Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: USA Today

Most of the remaining teams on the Bucs’ schedule aren’t nearly as good as Tampa Bay is at protecting the football or taking it away. New Orleans is up next on Sunday and has a minus-5 turnover margin, which is one of the worst in the league. Atlanta is remarkably better at plus-4, while Carolina is even with a zero turnover margin. Miami, the team’s opponent in Week 17, is also quite bad with a minus-4 mark. A big reason why Tampa Bay is 7-5 is that the defense is taking the ball away more often this year.

After recording just seven interceptions last year, the Bucs already have 11 INTs with five games left in the season. Only seven teams have more picks than Tampa Bay, with Chicago leading the way with 17. Todd Bowles’ defense should have the chance to add to that number in the coming weeks with New Orleans rookie Tyler Shough throwing four interceptions in six games. Carolina’s Bryce Young alredy has nine interceptions on the season, which already matches last year’s total, and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is tied for the NFL lead with 14 picks. Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins has one interception in two starts, but was tied for the league lead last year with 16.

If the Bucs can keep the interceptions coming, especially against Young in Weeks 16 and 18, enough wins should follow to capture the NFC South championship again.

Matt Matera: Bucs Will Benefit From A Bad NFC South Division

It’s only a two-team race for the NFC South title between the Bucs and Panthers right now. With the Falcons at 4-8 and the Saints at 2-10, there’s not even a remote chance they can get back into it. So that gives the Bucs a 50-50 shot to clinch it again. 

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay has held the division crown for the last four seasons. The Bucs have absolutely benefited from playing in the worst division in football over the last half decade. If they were in the NFC West or North, there are years where they likely don’t reach the postseason. But this is the hand the team was luckily dealt and the Bucs have made the most out of it. 

Staying a half game ahead of the Panthers, who do the Bucs happen to play next? That’s right – it’s a home game against the Saints and then another home game on Thursday against the Falcons. The subpar NFC South is showing up to help the Bucs build up a divisional lead before facing the Panthers for the first time in Week 16. 

Credit to the Panthers for having a huge, upset win over the Rams. But can we confidently say they’ll do this every week? This is a team that has gotten blown out by 31 and 29 points to different teams, and then fell to the Saints in a 17-7 loss a week after a big upset win over the Packers at Lambeau Field. The Panthers looked lost facing the 49ers before the win over the Rams. Carolina’s inconsistencies make me believe Tampa Bay will do what it has continuously done, and that’s take the division title while the lesser teams struggle.

Adam Slivon: The Bucs Offense Will Play Better, For Multiple Reasons

Despite barely hanging onto the NFC South by a thread, there are plenty of reasons to be confident Tampa Bay can obtain another division title. One of the biggest is that the offense should look a lot better over the final five games of the regular season. Signs of it showed during the team’s 20-17 win over the Cardinals, stemming from the return of Bucky Irving and a more explosive showing from Chris Godwin Jr. What Irving and Godwin accomplished provides optimism on multiple fronts.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Josh Grizzard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Josh Grizzard appears to be more like Dave Canales than Liam Coen when it comes to overall game planning and execution. Grizzard’s work has been cut out for him after, like Canales, he was hired as a first-time offensive playcaller. There were always going to be growing pains, and an overall theme of this season is a lack of week-to-week consistency.

Injuries have dampened those efforts, but better health and more experience under his belt give his unit a chance to get into a groove, as soon as this week. It was in Week 14 of 2023 that the offense started coming to life late in the season. From Weeks 14-16, the Bucs put up 29, 34, and 30 points to put Tampa Bay in position to win the division. It could very well play out similarly, with the same quarterback leading the way.

Baker Mayfield will only get healthier from here on out after a performance where he looked more like himself this past Sunday. There has been a notable improvement in the run game in recent weeks, as Luke Goedeke’s return cannot be overstated. The offensive line played one of its better games against the Cardinals, especially in pass protection, with four of five starting offensive linemen in the lineup. Add in the potential returns of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan just before the playoffs, and I have confidence that the pieces are in place for the offense to play its best football at just the right time.

Bailey Adams: Remaining Schedule Favors The Bucs

The Panthers are very much in it right now and threatening to unseat the four-time defending NFC South champion Buccaneers. But I still think Tampa Bay retains its division crown and five-peats — largely because of the way the remaining schedule sets up for both teams. The schedule down the stretch is favorable for Todd Bowles and Co., and it’s tougher sledding for a Panthers team that has been inconsistent from week to week all year.

The Bucs will see the 2-10 Saints this week and the 4-8 Falcons on Thursday Night Football in Week 15. Before we even get into the rest of the schedule, the scenario exists where wins in those two games would set up a win-and-in scenario for Tampa Bay when it goes on the road to Carolina in Week 16. That’s the easiest path to a fifth straight division title — just win the next three games.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

But even if the Bucs don’t win that first game against the Panthers, I think they finish with a better record over the final five weeks and just barely hang on for the division title. I like them to beat the Saints and Falcons, beat the Dolphins in Miami and at least split with the Panthers, making for a 4-1 stretch run and an 11-6 overall record.

If we factor in the split for Carolina, I think Dave Canales’ team beats New Orleans in Week 15 but loses to Seattle in Week 17, which would mean a 2-2 record over the final four games and a 9-8 record overall. That would actually have Tampa Bay winning the division by two games, keeping the streak going into 2026.

Josh Queipo: Haason Reddick, Calijah Kancey Can Help Bucs Down The Stretch

The Bucs explicitly stated that they needed a better four-man pass rush this offseason. They made three moves towards that goal in signing free agent Haason Reddick and drafting edge rusher David Walker in the fourth round and interior defensive lineman Elijah Roberts of the 2025 NFL Draft. The idea was that with an improved front-four the Bucs could keep more resources in coverage and make life harder for opposing quarterbacks.

Bucs DTs Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Then Todd Bowles could blitz out of creativity rather than necessity. Fast forward to the mid-mark of the season and Reddick was out with ankle sprain, defensive lineman Calijah Kancey was on injured reserve with a torn pectoral and Walker out with an ACL tear during the first week of training camp, and Bowles was back to being pigeon-holed schematically.

We saw glimpses of what the defense could be with an improved pass rush. We saw it again in Week 13 after Reddick returned. Jacoby Brissett was the most pressured quarterback in the league and his effectiveness as a passer dipped from the previous three weeks. Although Reddick didn’t record a sack, Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey did in the win and Tampa Bay notched 27 pressures on 45 dropbacks by Brissett.

If Kancey can come off injured reserve and re-join the group with Reddick, the Bucs defense could get hot and round into form just in time to win the NFC South division and make a deep playoff run.