Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Tampa Bay is now 7-5 after ending a three-game losing streak by beating Arizona, 20-17, at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. Now the Bucs’ attention turns to winning the NFC South with three straight division games, starting this Sunday at home versus the Saints. New Orleans is downtrodden at 2-10 and has switched quarterbacks, going with rookie Tyler Shough. But the Bucs can’t take the Saints lightly because for some reason the Saints play them tougher in Tampa Bay than in New Orleans.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs?

For the Buccaneers, Sunday’s matchup against the 2-10 Saints at Raymond James Stadium carries far more weight than the records suggest. This is a classic “must-handle-your-business” game for Tampa Bay – the kind of late-season matchup that can either solidify a playoff run or open the door to doubt and unnecessary pressure down the stretch. The good news is that the Todd Bowles-led Buccaneers are 6-1 against the Saints since he took over as head coach in 2022.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

And at 7-5, the Bucs are still leading the NFC South race, and dropping a home game to a struggling division rival would be the type of setback that lingers. Tampa Bay needs to prove it can finish the opponents it’s supposed to beat, especially with a tougher slate looming in December. The Bucs have yet to lose to a team with a losing record and they must keep that trend going to be considered a legitimate playoff team.

Beyond the standings, this is about setting a tone. The Bucs have been inconsistent on offense and defense after the bye week, and they can’t afford to let a desperate New Orleans team hang around long enough to play spoiler. Bowles’ squad has a chance to tighten its grip on the division with Carolina on a bye week, build some momentum in December, and continue to improve as the season progresses and the team gets healthier.

Lose, and the playoff picture becomes murkier. Win, and the Bucs take a major step toward controlling their own postseason destiny, which the team has done successfully in each of the last three Decembers under Todd Bowles.

What’s At Stake For The Saints?

For the 2-10 Saints, Sunday’s trip to Tampa isn’t about playoff implications – those hopes evaporated in October. This game is about pride, evaluation, and proving that this roster still has some fight left as the season winds down under new head coach Kellen Moore. When you’re 2-10, every remaining game becomes an audition, and facing a 7-5 Buccaneers team battling for the NFC South title gives New Orleans a prime chance to disrupt a rival’s postseason plans.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Saints S Justin Reid – Photo by: USA Today

That alone is enough to get a struggling team motivated, and these two teams don’t like each other, which also helps New Orleans find its edge in Week 13. What’s truly at stake is the trajectory of the Saints’ locker room. Players are fighting for jobs – not just in New Orleans, but across the league. Coaches are looking for building blocks for a foundation for the 2026 season, and a competitive showing against a playoff contender carries weight in the front office.

A win in Tampa would serve notice that the team hasn’t checked out, that there’s still some backbone left despite a difficult season. For a franchise that’s watched the Bucs seize control of the division in recent years, spoiling Tampa Bay’s momentum would be a small but meaningful statement.

The Saints are playing for a top 10 draft pick rather than a postseason berth. But they’re absolutely playing for identity, evaluation, and the chance to make life miserable for a division rival fighting for January football.

The Bucs Win If…

If the Buccaneers want to take care of business against the Saints on Sunday, it starts with better execution and efficiency on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Tampa Bay needs to stay on schedule and avoid the self-inflicted wounds that have derailed too many drives this season. That means leaning on a productive early down run game to keep the offense out of third-and-long, giving Baker Mayfield the chance to operate off play-action and attack New Orleans’ secondary with calculated shots.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The Saints’ defense may be battered, but they still have veterans who thrive on turnovers, so ball security is absolutely paramount. This is a week where the Bucs must dictate tempo, start fast and finish red zone opportunities with touchdowns and not field goals. Bucky Irving added some needed juice and playmaking ability to the offense last week and needs another similar performance.

Defensively, Todd Bowles’ group has to treat this like a playoff tune-up. That means stopping the run early, forcing the Saints into predictable passing situations, and then unleashing pressure packages that gave New Orleans trouble back in Week 8 in a 23-3 win at the Superdome. Tampa Bay forced four takeaways and registered five sacks right before the bye week.

The Bucs can’t let a rookie quarterback in Tyler Shough and a struggling offense find rhythm or confidence. Tighter coverage, better tackling, and collapsing the pocket to get the quarterback down will be the formula for success after a hit-and-miss defensive performance last week versus the Cardinals.

The Saints Win If…

If the Saints want to walk into Raymond James Stadium and stun the Buccaneers, they’ll need their most complete game of the season – and it starts on offense. New Orleans has to establish some level of balance early, because becoming one-dimensional against a Todd Bowles-coached defense is a recipe for disaster.

Bucs O-line and Saints D-line – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

The Saints don’t have much of a rushing attack to keep the pass rush honest and give rookie Tyler Shough manageable situations. Yet if rookie Devin Neal can continue to develop and improve on the ground, that would open the door for play-action, quick hitting slants, and high-percentage throws that build rhythm. New Orleans can’t afford negative plays or turnovers. That killed the Saints back in Week 8 and also last week as Shough was sacked four times and threw an interception and lost a fumble in a 21-17 loss at Miami.

Defensively, the Saints must make Tampa Bay uncomfortable from the opening snap. That means winning at the line of scrimmage and disrupting the Bucs’ timing in the passing game. New Orleans can’t sit back and let Baker Mayfield get into a groove. The Saints need to bring pressure, disguise coverages, and force him into hurried decisions and an off day.

Limiting big plays to Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. is critical, and the Saints have to rally to the ball and tackle cleanly. If New Orleans can defend the run better, win the turnover battle, and force Tampa Bay into a choppy, mistake-filled afternoon, the Saints will have a real shot at pulling off the upset.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs RB Bucky Irving vs. Saints Run Defense

New Orleans has had trouble stopping the run this year, and has the league’s 20th-ranked rushing defense, allowing an average of 126.9 yards per game. In last week’s 21-17 loss at Miami, the Saints surrendered 164 yards on the ground to the Dolphins, including 134 yards and a touchdown to De’Von Achane. Miami averaged 5.1 yards per carry and that has to be music to Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard’s ears. Tampa Bay ran the ball for 95 yards last week, led by the return of Bucky Irving, who ran for 61 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

Look for Irving to get even more action this week against New Orleans after proving that he handled his workload against Arizona last Sunday. Irving ran for 170 yards and two touchdowns on 33 carries in two games versus the Saints last year. He went over 80 yards rushing and scored a TD in each Bucs win, too. While Irving missed seven games due to shoulder and foot injuries, he did return to action with some fresh legs in Week 13.

Sunday also saw the return of left guard Ben Bredeson to the starting lineup. With another game under his belt in between left tackle Tristan Wirfs and center Graham Barton, Bredeson should help open holes for Irving against an overmatched Saints defensive front that lacks star power outside of an aging Cameron Jordan and Chase Young. New Orleans’ defensive line is better rushing the passer than it is stopping the run, and the Bucs need to take advantage of that on Sunday.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Defensive Pressure vs. Saints QB Tyler Shough

The Saints have the league’s 29th-ranked rushing attack, which averages 90.7 yards per game on the ground. The lack of a competent running game in New Orleans puts a lot of pressure on rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, who will be making his fifth start of the season on Sunday, and his seventh appearance under center. Shough’s first extended appearance came in the second half of New Orleans’ 23-3 loss to Tampa Bay back in Week 8. Shough threw his first NFL interception to Antoine Winfield Jr. when he completed 17-of-30 passes (56.7%) for 128 yards.

Saints QB Tyler Shough – Photo by: USA Today

Shough was also sacked twice in that game by the Bucs defense, and he’s been sacked a total of 14 times in the last five games he’s appeared in, including five times versus the Falcons in Week 12 and four times last week against the Dolphins. Todd Bowles will need to rev up the pressure on Shough again to make life in the pocket uncomfortable for the rookie quarterback and confuse him into some mistakes. Shough has also thrown four interceptions in limited playing time this year with just five touchdowns. The lone game in which he didn’t throw a pick was a 17-7 upset win at Carolina.

The Bucs recorded a pair of sacks last week, but should’ve had five or six sacks of Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Tampa Bay’s defense had a sloppy day when it came to tackling, and that can’t happen again. Shough is not terribly mobile, but when a member of the Bucs’ front four or a blitzing defender has a shot at him he needs to be brought to the ground. Tampa Bay has 29 sacks on the season, but has probably missed opportunities for at least 10 more through the first 12 games in 2025.