Even after the Panthers upset the Rams last week to stay within a half-game of the Bucs in the NFC South race, the scenario for Todd Bowles and Co. to clinch their fifth straight division title was really simple. Wins over the 2-10 Saints and 4-8 Falcons to start December would make the Bucs’ matchup with the Panthers on Dec. 21 a “hat and t-shirt game,” meaning Tampa Bay could wrap things up with two games to spare if it could beat Carolina in the first of two meetings between the two teams.

All things considered, that felt pretty manageable for this team, even if it has struggled since its bye week. The key word there is felt, as in past tense. Because in the first of the three straight must-win games against divisional opponents, the Bucs fell flat on their faces, losing 24-20 to the Saints in their home stadium.

With that loss by the Bucs, the Panthers gained a half-game in the NFC South race during their bye week, drawing the two teams even at 7-6 with four weeks left in the season. So, the aforementioned clinching scenario disappeared as quickly as it possibly could have.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, OC Josh Grizzard and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Despite that, the most straightforward clinching scenario for Tampa Bay is still to win its next three games. Beating Atlanta in Week 15 and Carolina in Week 16 would set up a win-and-in scenario when the team heads down to Miami in Week 17. That’s the case because even if the Panthers beat the Saints next week and the Seahawks in Week 17, the Bucs would still have the better record against their common opponents, which is the tiebreaker that comes after head-to-head.

So, in this scenario, the Week 16 win for the Bucs over the Panthers would make the Week 18 game essentially meaningless to the division race, as a Carolina win in that game would mean a 1-1 head-to-head split. That would send the division to the common opponents tiebreaker, which Tampa Bay would win (again, this scenario involves a Tampa Bay win in Miami).

Elsewhere in the NFC South in Week 14, the Falcons saw a 6-6 halftime score against the Seahawks turn into a 37-9 loss. That dropped Atlanta to 4-9 on the season and officially eliminated Raheem Morris’ team from playoff contention ahead of its trip to Tampa this Thursday night.

NFC South Standings Through Week 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-6 (2-1 in NFC South)
Carolina Panthers – 7-6 (2-1 in NFC South) 
Atlanta Falcons – 4-9 (1-3 in NFC South) — 3 games back
New Orleans Saints – 3-10 (2-2 in NFC South) — 4 games back

Remaining Schedules for Tampa Bay and Carolina:

Bucs: vs. Falcons (4-9), at Panthers (7-6), at Dolphins (6-7), vs. Panthers (7-6)
Panthers: at Saints (3-10), vs. Bucs (7-6), vs. Seahawks (10-3), at Bucs (7-6)

As for the rest of the NFC playoff picture, there was more movement. The big result was the Packers’ 28-21 win at home over the Bears. That moves Green Bay into first place in the NFC North and drops Chicago back into the NFC Wild Card picture for the time being, though the two teams meet again down the stretch.

The Rams beat the Cardinals 45-17 on Sunday afternoon, and that paired with the Bears’ loss moved Los Angeles back to the top of the NFC. The 9-3-1 Packers are just behind them at No. 2, while the 8-4 Eagles remain in the No. 3 spot and the Bucs – for the time being – hold the No. 4 seed.

The Seahawks’ win over the Falcons allowed them to keep pace with the Rams in the NFC West race, but with the Rams still holding the head-to-head tiebreaker right now, Seattle holds the No. 5 seed. That would make for a Bucs-Seahawks rematch on Wild Card Weekend if the season ended today.

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 49ers had their bye week in Week 14, but they moved up to the No. 6 spot in the NFC with the Bears’ loss to the Packers because they hold the tiebreaker over the Bears. So, it’s Chicago down at the No. 7 seed with four weeks to play.

Just on the outside looking in are the Lions, who scored a critical 44-30 win over the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football to get to 8-5. That was a big blow to any playoff hopes the Cowboys had, as they fell to 6-6-1 and sit behind the 7-6 Panthers.

NFC Standings Through Week 14 (**BEFORE MNF**)

1. Los Angeles Rams – 10-3 (Rams hold head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks in NFC West)
2. Green Bay Packers – 9-3-1 
3. Philadelphia Eagles – 8-4 (still to play Monday night at Chargers)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-6
5. Seattle Seahawks – 10-3
6. San Francisco 49ers – 9-4 (49ers hold win percentage vs. NFC opponents tiebreaker over Bears)
7. Chicago Bears – 9-4

———- IN THE HUNT ———-
8. Detroit Lions – 8-5
9. Carolina Panthers – 7-6
10. Dallas Cowboys – 6-6-1