Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

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Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport X account this week in the Bucs Mailbag. Submit your question to SR each week via X using the hashtag #PRMailbag.  Here are the Bucs questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.

QUESTION: I don’t understand why Todd Bowles isn’t more on the hot seat. Starting 6-2, then losing the last four of five, potentially costing the division. Most teams make a change by now. Whether special teams coordinator, offensive coordinator, or head coach. Yet the Bucs remain idle. Zero accountability with free passes.

ANSWER: First of all, you are not wrong in your assessment of what has happened this year – and to a large extent of the Todd Bowles era in Tampa Bay since 2022. The Bucs have squandered hot starts in each of the seasons under Bowles. Tampa Bay has started each of the last three seasons at 3-1 and the Bucs were even 2-2 in the first month of the season back in 2022. Then a midseason malaise seems to hit, forcing Bowles’ teams to have a furious finish to win the NFC South at the end of the season. Tampa Bay finished the 2023 season 5-2 and the team was even stronger last year at 6-1.

But that’s not happening this year. A hot 6-2 start has been squandered with this team only winning four of its last five games and the Bucs are flirting with being .500 with a loss to the Falcons on Thursday night. Unless the Bucs can somehow suddenly rally and finish this year strong by going 4-0 to close out the regular season – or at least 3-1 – this ship will sink. Losses to superior teams like Detroit, New England, Buffalo and Los Angeles can be explained and are somewhat forgivable. However, Sunday’s 24-20 debacle of a loss at home to a two-win Saints team cannot be.

Saints QB Tyler Shough and Bucs ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: USA Today

To your point about why no changes have been made yet, the Bucs still have a winning record at 7-6. And the possibility that this team rallies and finishes with an 11-6 record remains – yet it seems unlikely given how awful has played since the bye week. Whether you like it or not, Bowles isn’t going anywhere if he can right the ship and prevent it from sinking by winning the division again and winning one more game than Tampa Bay won last year.

The Bucs aren’t going to fire the head coach with a winning record in season. Heck, the Glazers have never fired a coach during the season before – not even during Raheem Morris’ final year when the team was in free fall losing the last 10 games after a 4-2 start. Now, I have suggested that Bowles fire special teams coordinator Thomas McGaughey to light a spark, shake things up – do something to get this team’s attention. I wrote about that in my 2-Point Conversion postgame column. But Bowles won’t do that until the offseason.

We’ll see what happens down the stretch and how much job security Bowles actually has after winning the NFC South with improving records over the last three seasons. And if this team makes the postseason, I suspect he may need a playoff win at home to cement his status for 2026 – otherwise there could be changes coming to Tampa Bay.

QUESTION: If the Bucs collapse down the stretch, is this it for Todd Bowles?

ANSWER: I think it depends on what you mean by “collapse.” If the Bucs lose the next four games, surrender the NFC South to Dave Canales and the Panthers and finish 7-10, yes I think Todd Bowles would be fired. If that happens, Tampa Bay would have squandered a 6-2 start to finish 1-8 down the stretch. Injuries can no longer be an excuse for a collapse of that magnitude. Finishing the season 1-8 would be a clear indication of a team moving in the wrong direction.

Now what happens if the team goes 2-2 down the stretch and the Bucs and Panthers finish tied at 9-8 with Tampa Bay winning both games and thus winning the NFC South on the head-to-head tiebreaker? Does that justify keeping Bowles even though there would be some regression from a 10-win season a year ago? Then it might go to how Bowles fares in the postseason this year. He’s already got a 1-3 postseason record with a pair of home losses in the Wild Card game.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

What happens if Bowles goes 3-1 in the remaining four games to finish 10-7, but loses in the first round of the playoffs? How will the Glazers view a season with no true progress from a record standpoint? Will injuries then be an excuse to keep him around for the 2026 season?

I think the Bucs have to post a winning record and make the playoffs for Bowles to have a chance at any job security. His defense has been a big culprit in the team’s collapse since the bye week and that cannot be overlooked. Bowles’ fingerprints were all over allowing Tyler Shough to run roughshod through his defense and surrendering 24 points to a Saints offense that ranked 30th in scoring, averaging 15.2 points per game coming into Sunday’s contest.

QUESTION: Scott, I’m going to assume something here most Bucs fans want. What legitimate candidates are there for our new head coach next year? Would love your professional analysis.

ANSWER: This is not a great year to be making a coaching change. A lot of the more prominent names are defensive-minded head coaching candidates, such as 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, Chargers defensive coordinator Jeff Minter, Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula, Jaguars defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile and Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard. I think the Glazers would want a young, offensive-minded head coach next – someone the exact opposite of Todd Bowles.

The Glazers have gone with more defensive-minded head coaching hires and have had very mixed results from Tony Dungy, Raheem Morris, Greg Schiano, Lovie Smith and Bowles. They’ve hired three offensive-minded head coaches in Jon Gruden, Dirk Koetter and Bruce Arians and Gruden and Arians delivered Super Bowls. After seeing the jobs that Dave Canales and Liam Coen are doing in Carolina and Jacksonville, respectively, that only bolsters the notion that Bowles’ eventual replacement should be a young, energetic offensive mind.

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen – Photo by: USA Today

This year, there are no Ben Johnsons out there on the horizon in 2026. And no Mike Vrabels, either. There aren’t any real hot offensive coordinators outside of maybe Seattle’s Klint Kubiak and Buffalo’s Joe Brady, but how much of Brady’s success can be attributed to having Josh Allen?

There are a lot of intriguing young names out there like Rams pass game coordinator Nate Scheelhaase and Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, but they are coordinators in name only and don’t call plays. That makes it tough to hire a young offensive mind to not only be a head coach, but to call plays for the first time sight unseen.

QUESTION: Players need to make plays but this is a big sample of losing streaks, primetime duds, losing to inferior teams and not showing up to games where we hold our own destiny. Other teams have injuries too, but how much more do we need to see of Todd Bowles teams not showing up?

ANSWER: You’re not wrong. The Bucs are 1-8 in the last three seasons in primetime under Todd Bowles with another primetime came coming on Thursday Night Football versus the Falcons this week. That’s embarrassingly bad and not a good look for the Glazers, who take a lot of pride in owning the Buccaneers franchise. This is also the third season in a row where the Bucs have endured a losing streak that has lasted at least three games, too.

This Tampa Bay team has indeed gone stale this year under Todd Bowles, and I wrote about that in my 2-Point Conversion postgame column. Tampa Bay has gone 1-4 since the bye week, and is just 2-5 since losing at Detroit on Monday Night Football. It feels like this season is slipping away after a disastrous 24-20 loss to the two-win Saints.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Every year is starting to look the same under Bowles, unfortunately. The key difference being that his teams have rallied in the past down the stretch to finish strong and win the NFC South at the end of the season. Bowles has gone on record saying that he wanted his team to develop a killer instinct this season and not have to wait until Week 17 or Week 18 to clinch the division title like the Bucs have done in the past. But that certainly hasn’t come to fruition.

This team does not play with an edge or have a killer instinct. That became crystal clear in Sunday’s upset loss to the Saints. And I’m not sure this team has what it takes to win out and claim another division title with all of the injuries, either. Sunday was a prime example of where the Saints were banged up too and had a less talented roster than the Bucs – yet still won on the road.

QUESTION: Baker Mayfield has seriously regressed this season. Not sure he should be handed a big contract at the end of this season. Maybe wait until next year with a different OC to see if he is worth the pay increase. Love his enthusiasm but his completion percentage is way down this year.

ANSWER: There certainly has been a regression from Baker Mayfield statistically this year as his completion percentage has dropped from a franchise-best 71.4% last year under Liam Coen to 61.6% this year under new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns last year – both career highs – but he’s come nowhere near those numbers in 2025. With four games left, Mayfield has thrown for 2,722 yards with 20 touchdown passes. He’s on pace to finish with 26 touchdowns and 3,559 yards. That’s about 1,000 less yards and 15 fewer TDs.

How much of that is a function of having to throw to a pair of rookie wide receivers in Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson this year and only having Chris Godwin Jr. for five games and Mike Evans for just four? How much of it is having a turnstile along the offensive line in front of Mayfield on a weekly basis? How much of it is Grizzard wanting to push the ball downfield for more explosive plays in the passing game, which naturally results in more incompletions as part of the risk-reward nature of doing so? And how much of it is the knee, oblique and shoulder injuries Mayfield has played through this year?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Where Mayfield has made some improvement this year is in the area of interceptions. Mayfield was tied for the league lead with 16 last year and has thrown just six this season. He’s on pace to finish with just seven, which would be a career low for him. Yet after throwing 13 touchdowns and just two picks in the first six games during Tampa Bay’s 5-1 start, Mayfield has thrown just seven touchdowns and four interceptions over the last seven games where the Bucs have gone just 2-5.

It will be very interesting to see what happens with Mayfield moving forward in terms of the size of the pay increase he’ll get after a season in which he has regressed statistically. And it will be interesting to see what happens with Todd Bowles and this coaching staff as a result – and if Grizzard could survive a potential coaching change. Grizzard has been dealt a very raw deal in terms of the injuries along the offensive line, at wide receiver and playing most of the season without Bucky Irving.

QUESTION: Why don’t the Bucs ever run QB sneak on fourth-and-1? I know Baker Mayfield is small, but seriously, it’s one yard. Graham Barton and Mayfield just need to push forward. At least try to run it before they say it won’t work. Starting five yards behind the line with a handoff isn’t always best.

ANSWER: I totally understand the frustration. I don’t like seeing the shotgun on third-and-1 or fourth-and-1 situations where the ball has to travel several yards back only to travel several yards forward just to get the ball back to the line of scrimmage – and then gain the yard necessary to convert. If a team wants to pass on third-and-1 or fourth-and-1 operating out of shotgun makes sense when it comes to making a quick throw. And of course teams have to be able to run it out of shotgun to avoid being overly predictable where lining up in shotgun immediately signals a pass is coming to the defense. So understand why teams do it.

But to me, the QB sneak needs to be a play in the arsenal and it really hasn’t been with Baker Mayfield – likely due to his 6-foot-1, 215-pound frame. The fact that Mayfield is playing with a shoulder injury means that Josh Grizzard certainly wouldn’t run it to risk further injury to his quarterback, as running into 300-pound defensive linemen could certainly do that.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

What I don’t understand is why Rachaad White couldn’t be inserted as a Wildcat QB under center and then try to power ahead with his 6-foot, 220-pound frame. White is a hard-charging runner and I feel like the chances of getting yard with him powering ahead for a yard would be greater than Mayfield doing it – even if it would be a tell for the defense. Most of the time when quarterbacks get under center in fourth-and-1 in a very tight formation a QB sneak is coming, so it’s pretty easy for defenses to I.D. that pre-snap.

I was not a fan of Grizzard’s over-usage of 12 personnel (two tight end sets) versus the Saints on Sunday. All that did was make creating holes even more difficult against a tough New Orleans defensive front. Grizzard should have learned that lesson from the first game against the Saints back in Week 8 when it took the Bucs offense nine tries over two different drives to score a 1-yard touchdown down by the goal line. When Grizzard decided to run the ball in short yardage out of 11 personnel with just one tight end it spread out the New Orleans defense and led to more successful runs.