Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

The Buccaneers inexcusably lost to a two-win Saints team, 24-20, at home where the outcome was as nasty as the weather was on Sunday. Todd Bowles’ defense looked nothing like the unit that dominated the Saints in New Orleans back in a 23-3 win in Week 8. Tampa Bay suffered key breakdowns on offense, defense and special teams against a New Orleans team that looked more inspired on Sunday despite not having anything to truly play for other than pride. After the embarrassing result, the Bucs fell to 7-6 and are now tied with the 7-6 Panthers, who had a bye week, for the lead in the NFC South.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. These Bucs Have Gone Stale Under Todd Bowles

This was not supposed to happen.

And when I say “this,” I mean an embarrassing, 24-20 loss to the two-win New Orleans Saints team – at home.

This was a disaster, and marked the fourth loss by this Todd Bowles team in the last five games since the bye week.

Tampa Bay has lost all momentum from a once promising 6-2 start. The Buccaneers have gone from being a very good team that once had a 2.5-game lead in the NFC South division to becoming a bad team.

And that’s what the Bucs are right now – they are a bad team despite a 7-6 record that somehow looks like a mirage.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and Saints head coach Kellen Moore – Photo by: USA Today

Bowles is not coaching well right now, nor are his assistants, some of which deserve to be fired at the end of the season. And his players aren’t playing well right now, either.

I’ll reserve judgment on Bowles for now to see how this season plays out with four games left, including two against the Dave Canales-led Panthers, who are now tied for the lead in the NFC South thanks to Tampa Bay’s loss. Bowles is a good man who has earned the benefit of the doubt to see if the Bucs can stop circling the drain down the stretch and actually win the last three divisional games to once again clinch the NFC South crown.

I certainly have my doubts, and so should you after watching Sunday’s rain-soaked debacle against the Saints at Raymond James Stadium.

After three straight losses turned a promising 6-2 start into a 6-5 reality, the Bucs returned home from a 34-7 beatdown in Los Angeles and had three straight home games against three teams – the Cardinals, Saints and Falcons – with losing records with three backup quarterbacks. After what looks like a hollow, 20-17 win over a three-win Arizona team last week, Tampa Bay had absolutely no business losing to a downtrodden New Orleans team with a rookie quarterback in Tyler Shough and an offense that featured a rookie running back in Devin Neal and a rookie starting receiver in DeVaughn Vele.

We’re not exactly talking about Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua here, nor are we talking about Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

This was a Saints offense that ranked 30th in scoring, averaging just 15.2 points per game. An offense that was held to just three points by the Bucs defense back in Week 8.

But in Week 14, Bowles’ defense made Shough look like Josh Allen, as he ran for touchdowns covering 34 and 13 yards. His first touchdown was a QB keeper and he ran through the Bucs defense like a hot knife through butter. On his second touchdown, Shough shook off feeble point-blank sack attempts by Logan Hall, Vita Vea and Anthony Nelson – all on the same play – to rumble into the end zone.

Saints QB Tyler Shough and Bucs ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: USA Today

How many times have we seen a rookie quarterback or a backup quarterback just simply outclass and embarrass a Todd Bowles defense over the years? The answer is too many times. And Shough, who shook off three early sacks and an early interception to beat Tampa Bay, is both a rookie and a backup QB.

This Bucs team just feels flat, doesn’t it? It’s grown stale.

I don’t think the players dislike Todd Bowles. I think they genuinely like and respect him. But liking a coach or being a players’ coach doesn’t always translate into wins.

Fresh off a 10-6 season in 2010, the Youngry Bucs loved playing for Raheem Morris in 2011 – even as the team was in complete free fall with 10 straight losses to end the season after a promising 4-1 start. That, of course, led to Morris’ dismissal.

It’s not that the players are tuning Bowles out, but his message is obviously not reaching them. That’s evident in slow starts defensively and constant gaffes on special teams week after week, loss after loss.

This team definitely lacks a killer instinct. That’s apparent. Even though Bowles implored his team to try to find one this year.

Good process, bad result. And in the coaching world, results matter more than process does. Don’t win enough games, and no matter what the process is – you’re fired.

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: USA Today

Does this all fall on Bowles? No, it does not. I’ve been critical of the job that Jason Licht and the personnel department have done over the last couple of years, too. Licht has been lauded for finding plenty of starters in the last four drafts, yet what he and his staff haven’t found is enough stars.

The Bucs have plenty of starters – some of which are JAGS (just a guy) if I’m being honest – but not enough stars. The last drafted players to make the Pro Bowl in Tampa Bay were offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. back in the first two rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft. That’s getting to be a long time ago.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs didn’t have a single Pro Bowl player this year. Would you?

So it’s not just Bowles. If he had better talent, maybe the team would be playing better and have a few more wins.

Maybe they wouldn’t have lost four out of the last five, and wouldn’t have us scared to death wondering what Kirk Cousins and the four-win Falcons are going to do to Bowles’ defense on Thursday Night Football just a few days from now.

But Bowles had enough talent to beat the two-win Saints on Sunday, and that didn’t happen. Tampa Bay’s defense gave up 24 points, which was the second-most points that New Orleans has scored all year. Shough and the Saints offense converted 5-of-11 (45.5%) on third downs, while Baker Mayfield and Josh Grizzard’s offense converted just 3-of-13 (23.1%) on third down and was an abysmal 2-of-7 (28.6%) on fourth down.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Sunday felt like a loss out of the Raheem Morris, Greg Schiano, Lovie Smith or Dirk Koetter era.

Tampa Bay doesn’t play with an edge. No team fears this team – certainly not the Saints after Sunday.

The Bucs don’t look like they are getting better. In fact, they are getting worse – and doing so at the wrong time of the year.

Too many mistakes. Not enough plays from the Bucs’ playmakers. This does not look like a team that is treating every game like a must-win from here on out.

How many more times will Bucs ownership overlook midseason slumps and the annual stub-your-toe game? We saw such a game in losing to backup QB Cooper Rush and a Cowboys team with a losing record last December on Sunday Night Football while Tampa Bay was making a late-season run at another division title.

Sunday’s loss to the Saints is that game this year – a game this Bucs team has no business losing.  Will there be yet another one on Thursday night against the Falcons?

How many times will Bucs ownership forgive having to wait to win a division title – in the weakest division in the entire NFL – until the last week or two of the regular season?

How many times will Bucs ownership tolerate another loss in a first-round home playoff game? Because if the Bucs somehow win at least three more games to finish with another 10-win season and finally win another division title at the very end, do we really think this team is going to do anything in the postseason?

The seasons under Bowles are beginning to feel an awful lot like the movie Groundhog Day. Same thing, different year.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Maybe good, but not good enough to truly be a threat for another Super Bowl.

And if I’m being honest after Sunday’s pathetic loss to the Saints, we can’t call Todd Bowles’ team good anymore. They haven’t been good since before the bye week.

STATEMENT 2. Bucs Offense Has Lost Its Mojo

Maybe it’s all the injuries. Maybe offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard doesn’t have enough capable starters on offense right now. Maybe opposing defenses have zeroed in on Grizzard’s tendencies and sniffed out too many plays with a dozen weeks of film on his offense.

But the offense that was winning at Atlanta, at Houston and at Seattle in the last minute of those games at the start of the season has left the building. It’s nowhere to be found.

Baker Mayfield’s name has long been removed from any NFL MVP conversation. Emeka Egbuka has lost his cape and is no longer a superhero. Tampa Bay’s offensive line has become a weekly turnstile due to a rash of injuries that just won’t stop.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, OC Josh Grizzard and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay had chances to come from behind and win games against New England and New Orleans and fell flat instead on the final drives of those games.

Baker Mayfield started the season throwing 13 touchdowns and two interceptions as the Bucs raced out to 6-2 start. But since the bye week, Mayfield has thrown just seven touchdowns and four interceptions as the Bucs have gone 1-4 in games over that span.

On Sunday, Mayfield played behind a line that ended the game with just two real starters in center Graham Barton and right tackle Luke Goedeke, as the team continued to start Dan Feeney at right guard for Cody Mauch and started rookie Ben Chukwuma for an injured Tristan Wirfs at left tackle. Left guard Ben Bredeson injured his right knee against the Saints and looks to be out for several weeks. He was replaced by Mike Jordan.

Still, the Bucs ran for 179 yards on 39 carries and averaged 4.6 yards per carry, and didn’t allow Mayfield to get sacked once. Yet when push came to shove on third and fourth down, the makeshift offensive line got shoved – backwards. The Bucs converted only 3-of-13 (23.1%) on third down and was just 2-of-7 (28.6%) on fourth down on Sunday.

The Saints defensive front showed Grizzard how formidable it was in New Orleans back in Week 8 when it stopped the Bucs offensive line on the 1-yard line on eight straight goal-to-go situations. Yet he still tried to line up in 12 personnel with two tight ends too many times on Sunday in third-and short and fourth-and-short situations – this time without Wirfs for the whole game and Bredeson for half of it – and it was like running into a brick wall.

Todd Bowles also attempted too many fourth down conversions near midfield, which just wound up giving the Saints too many short fields and New Orleans finally cashed in one in the fourth quarter to take a 24-17 lead after starting at the Tampa Bay 47.

Bowles should have played field position and used punter Riley Dixon, the league’s NFC Special Teams Player of the Week, more often. Dixon punted just once on Sunday, knocking a 31-yard punt down inside the 20-yard line.

In the end, Mayfield had a wide-open Egbuka in the end zone and threw the pass just a little too high off his fingertips. Instead of tying the game at 24-24, the Bucs settled for a field goal. The early season mojo has left Tampa Bay’s offense. And that, combined with shoddy defensive play from Bowles’ unit, has resulted in too many losses since the bye week.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. What Are The Glazers Thinking About The Jobs Being Done In Carolina And Jacksonville?

I’d love to know the answer to that. In just two years, former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales has turned a terrible 2-15 Panthers team he inherited into a 7-6 Carolina squad that has moved into a tie for the NFC South lead with Tampa Bay’s loss to New Orleans on Sunday. Canales left after one season to take the Panthers head coaching job and has already improved on his 5-12 record from a year ago. Carolina is a serious threat to unseat Tampa Bay as the division champs this year – even more so after Sunday’s pitiful performance by the Bucs against the Saints.

Liam Coen replaced Canales last year and took the Bucs offense to new heights, averaging around 30 points per game. Coen also leveled up Baker Mayfield, who completed a franchise-record 71.4% of his passes for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns, which was the second-most in franchise history. When the Jaguars were courting Coen to possibly become their head coach in January after the Bucs exited the playoffs, Tampa Bay stepped in and was poised to make Coen the highest-paid offensive coordinator in the league.

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen – Photo by: USA Today

But Jacksonville ramped up the offer for Coen after that and it became too much for him to turn down. When he left the Bucs under dubious circumstances, Coen became a pariah to the Tampa Bay fan base. Now that the fiery Coen has Jacksonville sitting at 9-4 atop the AFC South after beating Indianapolis on Sunday, many Bucs fans are questioning whether the Glazers shouldn’t have replaced the 62-year old Todd Bowles with the 40-year old Coen.

If Coen and the Jaguars wind up winning their division and Canales and the Panthers beat the Bucs in the NFC South, the Glazers may be questioning themselves about whether they made the right move, too.

QUESTION 2. Is It Time To Call For Thomas McGaughey’s Job?

Yes. Tampa Bay’s special teams have failed this team far more this year than they’ve helped the Bucs actually win. I seriously doubt Todd Bowles would fire any coach in-season, but special teams coordinator Thomas McGaughey does not deserve to return next year. There has to be a better, more competent special teams coordinator out there for Tampa Bay.

Mason Tipton’s 54-yard kick return to start the game gave the Saints some immediate momentum and led to a short field, which turned into a touchdown drive and a 7-0 New Orleans lead. That big play gave a two-win Saints team some inspiration and something to play for right off the bat.

Saints KR Mason Tipton – Photo by: USA Today

Wide receiver Ryan Miller blew contain on Tipton’s return, and then blew contain again on another one by Dante Pettis, which led to a 23-yard return later in the game. Meanwhile, the Bucs’ return game has flat-lined in recent weeks. Kam Johnson fielded two punts via fair catches because he didn’t have adequate blocking to allow him to break loose on a return. And Johnson averaged just 19.5 yards on two kick returns, too.

If I’m Bowles, I would relieve McGaughey of his duties right now to send a late-season message to the team that continued mistakes cannot be tolerated and try to shock some life back in to this lifeless Bucs team. Keith Tandy could take over special teams the rest of the way, but don’t expect that to happen.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Will Lose To The Falcons On Thursday Night Football

The Bucs just lost to a two-win Saints team at home. Todd Bowles’ defense will play Buc-killer Kirk Cousins next. In primetime – where the Bucs haven’t fared well over the last couple of years – on Thursday Night Football. In the creamsicle jerseys that Tampa Bay just can’t seem to win in. Enough said.

PREDICTION 2. Bucs Won’t Finish With More Than 10 Wins

Let’s be clear. The Bucs could win their next four games and finish with an 11-6 record, which would be a one-win improvement on the team’s 10-7 mark from a year ago. But I don’t think that will happen. I think 3-1 is the best record the team could achieve right now given how poorly the Bucs have played – and even that feels like a stretch.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Falcons QB Kirk Cousins Photo by: USA Today

In fact, I could see Tampa Bay losing two out of its next four games. All four games come with peril. The Falcons swept the Bucs last year with Kirk Cousins at quarterback at the time, and then lost to them in Atlanta in Week 1 when a game-tying field goal attempt was missed. After losing to a two-win Saints team, a win over a four-win Falcons team is hardly a given.

Then there is a game in Miami in Week 17 against a surging Dolphins team that has won four of its last five to improve to 6-7. That game is sandwiched in between two games against a 7-6 Panthers team in Weeks 16 and 18. I have a hard time believing that the Bucs could sweep the Panthers right now. But sweeping the Panthers may be necessary to win the division and make the playoffs – even with a 9-8 record. Good luck, Todd Bowles.