The 7-6 Bucs don’t have much time to lick their wounds following Sunday’s disheartening and embarrassing 24-20 loss to the last-place Saints, as they have to turn right around and kick off the NFL’s Week 15 slate on Thursday Night Football. The 4-9 Falcons are set to visit Raymond James Stadium in primetime for Tampa Bay’s annual creamsicle game, which is a must-win for Todd Bowles and Co. as they look to maintain control of their own destiny on the path toward a fifth straight NFC South title.

As it stands, the Bucs do still control their own destiny in pursuit of that five-peat and a sixth straight playoff appearance. In fact, if they win Thursday night against the Falcons and manage to beat the Panthers in Week 16, they can clinch the division as soon as Week 17 with a win in Miami over the Dolphins.

Questions remain about what all of that is worth in the long run considering the bleak outlook for this team should it make its way into the playoffs, but there’s still a chance to salvage something out of the franchise’s 50th season. That’s worth something, surely.

The Bucs are also looking for a season sweep of the Falcons. It would be their first sweep of the Dirty Birds since 2021, and even outside of what it would mean for their division title chances, it would simply be nice to return the favor after Atlanta swept Tampa Bay in 2024.

Before we dive further in our “What to Watch For” preview on Thursday morning, here’s a general preview of this must-win primetime game at Ray Jay:

The Last Time…

It feels like a lifetime ago that the Bucs and Falcons opened up the 2025 regular season against each other in Atlanta. The two teams played an absolute thriller, with Tampa Bay prevailing late, 23-20, to start the season 1-0.

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photo by: USA Today

Bijan Robinson had a 50-yard catch and run for a touchdown to give the Falcons an early 7-0 lead, but after a Chase McLaughlin field goal made it 7-3, the Bucs took their first lead on Emeka Egbuka’s first career touchdown catch, a 30-yarder from Baker Mayfield. A 9-yard touchdown pass from Mayfield to Bucky Irving then gave Tampa Bay a 17-10 lead in the third quarter, but Atlanta came back with an 18-play, 91-yard touchdown drive that took 8:46. That tied the game with 2:17 left.

From there, Mayfield led Tampa Bay on a five-play, 63-yard touchdown drive, hitting Egbuka for a 25-yard go-ahead touchdown with 59 seconds left. A missed extra point by McLaughlin left the door open for the Falcons, who got into field goal range and looked ready to send the game to overtime. Only Younghoe Koo’s kick went wide right, allowing the Bucs to hold on for the win.

The all-time series between these two teams is tied at 32-32 heading into Thursday night. After the Bucs swept the Falcons in 2020 and 2021, the two teams split the 2022 and 2023 meetings. Atlanta got the sweep last year, and now Tampa Bay goes for the sweep in 2025.

How The Bucs And Falcons Are Trending

After their loss to the Saints in Week 14, a harsh reality set in that the Bucs haven’t really been a playoff team — or even a good team — for nearly two months now. Thursday’s date is Dec. 11, which is almost exactly two months since Tampa Bay’s Week 6 win over San Francisco, a win that made for a dazzling 5-1 start. Since then, it’s all gone downhill.

The Bucs lost to the Lions in Week 7 and after rebounding with a win over the Saints to hit the bye week at 6-2, they’ve lost four of their five games since the bye to drop to 7-6. That’s five losses in the last seven games overall, a horrible stretch that makes that hot start feel like fool’s gold.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

There’s plenty of blame to go around right now. Starting on the offense, Baker Mayfield has regressed. He has had to battle through knee, oblique and shoulder injuries, but he just hasn’t been good enough in the last seven games. He has completed 57.7% of his passes over that span with an average of 169 yards per game and just eight touchdowns to five interceptions. That’s a far cry from the first six games, which saw him complete 66.2% of his passes, average 256.5 yards per game and throw for 12 touchdowns to just one interception.

It doesn’t help Mayfield and the Bucs passing game that Emeka Egbuka has seemingly hit the rookie wall and looks much less like the rookie of the year candidate he was earlier this year. Chris Godwin Jr. is still working his way back into form, too, and while Mike Evans could be back and provide a much-needed boost, he also hasn’t played since Week 7.

What does help is that Tampa Bay’s run game is picking up some steam. Bucky Irving’s return has been huge, and both Rachaad White and Sean Tucker are running well and create a three-headed monster in the backfield. The offensive line does need All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs (oblique), though, especially with left guard Ben Bredeson (knee) now on injured reserve.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

Defensively, the Bucs are still a mess. Tyler Shough just tore them up on the ground, and the Saints’ cast of relatively unknown rookies pretty much took it to them on their home field. The pass rush isn’t good enough, and Haason Reddick picked up another injury last week. Tampa Bay was desperate enough this week to go out and sign old friend Jason Pierre-Paul, who is 36 years old and hasn’t played since 2023, to the practice squad. And while it’s a longshot that he’ll play Thursday night, that addition is a real sign of where things are for this defense right now.

To make matters even worse, Tampa Bay’s kick coverage unit continues to be an absolute disaster. Todd Bowles’ defense isn’t good enough for the coverage unit to keep giving opposing offenses good field position, yet it continues to happen week after week. It needs to stop on Thursday night, but it’s Week 15. How likely is it that Thomas McGaughey‘s special teams unit suddenly figures it out? At least it’s not every aspect of special teams that is underperforming, as Chase “Money” McLaughlin is still as money as ever.

As for how the Falcons are trending, they’ve spiraled well out of control since the Bucs last saw them. After a big Monday Night Football win over the Bills in Week 6 got them to 3-2, they lost five straight games. Overall, they’ve lost seven of eight games since then, and with last week’s 37-9 loss to the Seahawks, they were officially eliminated from playoff contention, making it eight straight seasons without a playoff berth.

To make everything worse, it’s not like tanking from here on out would help anything for Atlanta after it traded its 2026 first-round pick to the Rams to draft pass rusher James Pearce Jr. in the first round of the 2025 Draft. Pearce has 33 pressures and six sacks thus far in his rookie season, which is promising for the Falcons defense. But with the team at 4-9 and without a first-rounder in 2026, that’s a tough spot to be in. And at this point, it’s worth wondering whether Raheem Morris is even around to try to steer the ship in the right direction next year. He’s 12-18 as Atlanta’s head coach to this point.

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today

Whether it’s Morris at the helm or someone else in 2026, the Falcons are in a tough position going forward. They just spent a top-10 pick on quarterback Michael Penix Jr. last year, and while he showed promise at the end of 2024, he had an up-and-down 2025 and just suffered a partially torn ACL in Week 11. With his injury history, particularly with his knee, in college, that has to be troubling.

Since that injury, it’s been the league’s highest-paid backup, Kirk Cousins, back under center for Atlanta a year after getting benched in favor of Penix. Cousins has completed 60.9% of his passes for 845 yards and three touchdowns to three interceptions this year, and at 37, he seems to be on his last legs in the NFL. Now, whether that matters when he sees the Bucs – a team he torched for 785 yards and eight touchdowns to one interception in two games last year – remains to be seen.

The Falcons offense still has talent, though No. 1 receiver Drake London has been dealing with a knee injury and has yet to practice during the short week ahead of Thursday night’s game. Bijan Robinson is still as electric as ever, of course, as he is over the 1,000-yard mark with 1,081 and five touchdowns while catching 61 passes for 602 yards and two more touchdowns. Even Kyle Pitts has seemingly put things together in 2025, as he is Atlanta’s second-leading receiver with 62 catches for 631 yards and a touchdown.

Perhaps the biggest indictment of Morris as the Falcons’ head coach is that his defense is looking pretty poor this year, especially as of late. The Seahawks hung 37 on them last week, the Jets put 27 on them the week before and the two weeks before that, both the Panthers and Colts surpassed the 30-point mark against them in overtime wins. Overall, Atlanta has allowed 30+ points in five games this season and 25+ in two more. In the last seven games, teams are averaging 27.6 points per game against the Falcons.

Falcons HC Raheem Morris – Photo by: USA Today

To Morris’ credit, the Falcons are still fighting and hanging tough, last week’s game notwithstanding. Before that lopsided loss to the Seahawks, their last four losses had come by only one possession, with two coming in overtime. Knowing how these Bucs-Falcons games go, it wouldn’t be surprising if this is another one of those close games that Atlanta has been playing in for much of the season despite its record.

Here’s how the Bucs and Falcons stack up heading into Week 15:

Bucs Offense: T-17th in scoring offense (23.0 PPG), 22nd in total offense (315.0 yards per game), 20th in passing offense (199.8 yards per game), 20th in rushing offense (115.2 yards per game)

Falcons Offense: 27th in scoring offense (19.4 PPG), 16th in total offense (330.0 yards per game), 18th in passing offense (206.4 yards per game), 12th in rushing offense (123.6 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 23rd in scoring defense (25.0 points allowed per game), 21st in total defense (338.4 yards allowed per game), 27th in passing defense (237.8 yards allowed per game), 8th in rushing defense (100.6 yards allowed per game)

Falcons Defense: 20th in scoring defense (24.1 points allowed per game), 14th in total defense (322.5 yards allowed per game), 9th in passing defense (191.5 yards allowed per game), 24th in rushing defense (131.0 yards allowed per game)

As of Tuesday night, the Bucs are 4-point favorites, with the Over/Under set at 44.5 (per Hard Rock Bet).

Bucs vs. Falcons Game Information

When: Thursday, December 11
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video – Al Michaels (Play by Play), Kirk Herbstreit (Analyst), Kaylee Hartung (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Martín Gramática, Santiago Gramática