It’ll be a matchup of 7-7 teams this Sunday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte when the Bucs and Panthers square off in the first of two meetings over the final three weeks of the season. The winner of this Week 16 matchup will take a one-game lead in the NFC South race into Week 17 and have a chance to clinch the division before they even meet again at Raymond James Stadium after the calendar flips to 2026.

This is a massive swing game in the division race, for obvious reasons. The two teams come in tied atop the South, though Tampa Bay currently holds the tiebreaker over Carolina because it has a better record against common opponents. Over the course of 60 minutes of game time (assuming no overtime) on Sunday afternoon, the landscape will suddenly shift wildly one way or the other.

The Bucs come into Sunday needing any two wins over their final three games to win their fifth straight NFC South title and make the playoffs for the sixth straight season. Obviously, losing in Charlotte suddenly puts their backs firmly against the wall as they would then need to beat the Dolphins at Miami in Week 17 and beat the Panthers in a Week 18 rematch back in Tampa to win the division and continue their reign on top.

If you want the numbers to paint the situation more clearly, the New York Times’ playoff simulator gives Tampa Bay a 95% chance to make the playoffs with a win on Sunday over Carolina. And with a loss, those chances drop to 54%.

On the flip side, the Panthers enter Sunday with a 24% chance to make the playoffs. With a win, those chances jump up to 47% and they would have the inside track on the Bucs. That would make for a nervy Christmas in the Tampa Bay area.

Before we dive further in our “What to Watch For” preview later this week, here’s a general preview of Sunday afternoon’s crucial NFC South matchup between Tampa Bay and Carolina:

The Last Time…

The Bucs and Panthers last met just about 51 weeks ago at Raymond James Stadium. On that Dec. 29, 2024 matchup, Tampa Bay had no trouble with Carolina on its way to a 48-14 win and a season sweep. This came just a few weeks after the Panthers had the Bucs on the ropes in overtime, a game that the Bucs managed to steal as part of a strong December run. While the meeting in Carolina was a close one, the return game in Tampa wasn’t.

Baker Mayfield threw for 359 yards and five touchdowns on 27-of-32 passing, finding Mike Evans eight times for 97 yards and two scores while Jalen McMillan added five catches for 51 yards and two scores of his own.

Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Overall, Tampa Bay put up 551 yards with its 48 points. Meanwhile, Carolina was held to 204 total yards. Bryce Young and Co. got within 27-14 just before halftime, but the home team went on a 21-0 run in the second half to close things out.

That turned into quite the day for the Bucs, as they won that game on Sunday afternoon and later that night, the Falcons lost to the Commanders in overtime to give Todd Bowles and Co. a win-and-in scenario against the Saints in Week 18. That was a clinching scenario that Tampa Bay took advantage of, with a Week 18 win earning the team its fourth straight NFC South title and a fifth consecutive playoff appearance.

Now, this next meeting between the Bucs and Panthers comes with those division title and playoff streaks in danger of ending. With a win on Sunday, Carolina will be in a strong spot to end Tampa Bay’s reign atop the NFC South with two weeks to go.

All-time, the Panthers lead the series over the Bucs, 25-24. However, Tampa Bay has won five straight over Carolina and nine of the last 10 heading into Sunday.

How The Bucs And Panthers Are Trending

Over the course of the last two months, everything has gone wildly south for the four-time defending champions of the NFC South. Remember when the Bucs were 5-1 through six games with key wins over the Texans and Seahawks on the road and the 49ers at home? Remember when they lost in Week 7 at Detroit only to bounce right back and beat New Orleans and to hit the bye week at 6-2?

Yeah, all of the good feelings from the season’s first half are long gone. What at one time felt like a team cruising to a fifth straight division title to continue its NFC-best six-year playoff appearance streak now feels like a team completely bottoming out and needing what feels like an evasive late-season turnaround to win the division at all.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Four losses in five games since the bye and five losses in the last seven games overall were one thing. But adding a 29-28 loss last Thursday night in a game they led 28-14 with under 10 minutes to go? That was a new low for the Bucs. Mike Evans was visibly frustrated on the sideline and on his way into the tunnel. Buccaneer defenders were animated during their walk off the field. Hell, even Todd Bowles (!!) launched into an expletive-filled tirade in his postgame press conference, something he never does.

So, the vibes feel as bad as they’ve been in Tampa Bay since, when, 2019? The Bucs were 7-7 late in that season like they are now, and they were on the fringes of the playoff picture. But they lost their last two games, with Jameis Winston’s 30th interception of the season going for a game-ending pick six in the finale, and finished 7-9. That launched a new era for the franchise because Winston’s days as its QB1 were over and three months later, in came Tom Brady.

It feels like a similar transition could be on its way if this Bucs team doesn’t turn a switch on and win two of their last three games to retain the NFC South title and at least give themselves a shot to make a run in the playoffs.

No, it won’t be a transition at quarterback like it was from 2019 into 2020, but it very well could mean a head coaching change. Bowles is 34-31 in his nearly four years as Tampa Bay’s head coach, and he has a 1-3 record in the playoffs. If 34-31 becomes 34-34 or even 35-33 and this team — after a 5-1 start — fully collapses to miss the playoffs? It’s hard to imagine Bowles getting a fifth season, isn’t it?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Now, a late surge to finish 9-8 or even 10-7 again means another playoff appearance. Then, the questions get more complicated regarding Bowles and his future with the team. But with the way things have gone as of late, it seems pretty fair to assume the Bucs would love to face those more complicated questions as opposed to missing the playoffs and having the easier decision presented to them.

On the other side of Sunday’s matchup is another team that is confusing in its own way. While Tampa Bay has found consistency in terms of losing over the last two months, Carolina has found its own kind of maddening consistency in the form of a win-loss-win-loss pattern that goes back to Week 7.

After a Week 7 win, the Panthers lost in Week 8 to the Bills by a score of 40-9. They bounced back the next week with an impressive upset 16-13 win over the Packers at Lambeau Field, but they failed to build on it when they came back home and lost 17-7 to the Saints. What followed was a big road overtime win over the Falcons, but the 49ers beat them the following week to keep the trend going.

And even after one of the more impressive wins in the entire NFL this season, a 31-28 win over the Rams, the Panthers went into their bye week on a high. Only they then came out of it with a 20-17 loss to the Saints this past Sunday in a game that saw them leading by 10 in the second half. That loss cost Carolina a chance to take a one-game lead in the NFC South and make Sunday’s game against Tampa Bay a potential division title clincher.

Panthers QB Bryce Young and HC Dave Canales – Photo by: USA Today

In a lot of ways, Panthers head coach Dave Canales has his team ahead of schedule in his second year at the helm. But considering they’ve found ways to beat teams like the Packers and the Rams, it’s all the more frustrating that they were swept by the Saints and also lost to the Cardinals back in Week 2.

Carolina hasn’t been able to take advantage of the opportunities in front of it, with Week 15 being the latest example. It’s almost as if the Panthers have to be underdogs in order to have a chance, as Sunday’s loss was their 12th loss in a row as betting favorites. That could mean it’s good news, then, for Canales and Co. that they currently sit as home underdogs to the Bucs ahead of Sunday’s game.

The dynamic heading into this one is interesting, though. Who is facing more pressure? Is it the Bucs, who are looking to keep their reign atop the division going but currently find themselves in a tailspin having only won a single game since the start of November? Or is it the Panthers, a team seemingly ahead of schedule but also facing a prime chance to win an unlikely division title — their first since 2015 — and gets to play this game at home?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photo by: USA Today

Oddly, it might be the Panthers who have more pressure on them. Because if they lose this game, they then face a scenario where they have to beat the 11-3 Seahawks next week and get help in the form of a Dolphins win over the Bucs to keep their hopes alive. Meanwhile, as bad as a Buccaneer loss would be on Sunday, help from the Seahawks in Week 16 and a win over the Dolphins puts them right back in the race heading into the season finale against the Panthers.

Here’s how the Bucs and Panthers stack up heading into Week 16:

Bucs Offense: 16th in scoring offense (23.4 PPG), 21st in total offense (316.6 yards per game), 21st in passing offense (203.4 yards per game), 21st in rushing offense (113.2 yards per game)

Panthers Offense: 28th in scoring offense (18.9 PPG), 24th in total offense (309.0 yards per game), 25th in passing offense (183.4 yards per game), 9th in rushing offense (125.6 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 24th in scoring defense (25.3 points allowed per game), 25th in total defense (348.2 yards allowed per game), 30th in passing defense (246.9 yards allowed per game), 10th in rushing defense (101.4 yards allowed per game)

Panthers Defense: 14th in scoring defense (22.6 points allowed per game), 17th in total defense (331.5 yards allowed per game), 17th in passing defense (215.5 yards allowed per game), 16th in rushing defense (116.0 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Bucs are 3-point favorites, with the Over/Under set at 46 (per Hard Rock Bet).

Bucs at Panthers Game Information

When: Sunday, December 21
Where: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Chris Myers (Play by Play), Mark Schlereth (Analyst), Jen Hale (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Martín Gramática, Santiago Gramática