Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Tampa Bay is now 7-7 after back-to-back losses at home to the Saints and Falcons. Thankfully for Tampa Bay, Carolina got upset last Sunday at New Orleans and also fell to 7-7. There is a tie for the division lead and the winner of the Bucs vs. Panthers game will have the upper hand in the NFC South with two games to play. Neither team is playing exceptionally well, as Carolina has alternated wins and losses for the last eight weeks, while Tampa Bay has lost five of its last six games since the bye week.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs?

For the Buccaneers, Sunday’s Week 16 trip to Carolina isn’t just another NFC South matchup. It’s a pressure-packed checkpoint in a season that’s teetering between promise and disappointment. A late-season lead in the division is at stake for the winner, and the Bucs need to stop the bleeding that has turned a hot 6-2 start to a cold 1-5 record since the bye week. Tampa Bay lost back-to-back divisional games at home to New Orleans and Atlanta, which makes believing that the Bucs will win in Carolina somewhat of a fantasy.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and TE Payne Durham – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs need to win two out of their next three games to win a division that nobody seems to want to win. The Panthers had a golden opportunity to take a one game lead in the NFC South on Sunday, but were upset – again – by the Saints, this time in New Orleans. A loss at Carolina on Sunday would not only put this team under pressure to win the next two games at Miami and against the Panthers again at home in Week 18, but also turn up the heat on head coach Todd Bowles.

This game is about Tampa Bay’s credibility, which is fading fast. Good teams handle business late in the season, but the Bucs have been anything but good down the stretch this year. That’s a far cry from Bowles’ teams over the past two years that have rallied and finished strong. If the Bucs lose a third straight division game on Sunday, it’s hard to imagine this team finding the necessary edge to win the final two. The Panthers game in Week 16 is as must-win as it gets.

What’s At Stake For The Panthers

For the Panthers, Week 16 against the Buccaneers is about far more than the standings. Carolina is 7-7 and tied with the Bucs for the NFC South lead, but games like this are where franchises try to find direction – and dignity – late in an up-and-down season. Hosting a division rival with playoff aspirations gives the Panthers a rare chance to not just play spoiler, but to actually take the lead in the division with just two weeks left in the season.

Panthers QB Bryce Young and HC Dave Canales – Photo by: USA Today

In some ways, Dave Canales’ team is ahead of schedule in just his second year as head coach in Carolina. A 7-7 record is a welcomed sight for a team that won just two games the year before Canales arrived, and won five games last season in his first year as a head coach. At the same time, there have been some frustrating losses that have kept the Panthers from achieving more in 2025 – notably being swept by the Saints.

Carolina has had some serious upset wins this season, including victories at Green Bay and at home versus the Los Angeles Rams. But this is also a Panthers team that has proven to not be ready for big league competition yet, evidenced by a 16-point loss to the Jaguars, a 29-point loss to the Patriots and a 31-point loss to the Bills earlier in the season.

The Bucs Win If…

If the Buccaneers want to take care of business in Carolina in Week 16, it starts with putting up points. Tampa Bay’s offense is the strength of this team right now, and Thursday night’s 29-28 loss to Atlanta proved that the Bucs may need to score 30 points or more in each of the final three games to have enough to win. The good news is that Baker Mayfield now has his full complement of wide receivers for the first time all season with the return of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan to the lineup. Both looked good last week versus the Falcons.

Bucs WR Mike Evans and Panthers CB Jaycee Horn – Photo by: USA Today

Carolina’s defense can be hit or miss, but it does have young playmakers at each level. Tampa Bay’s offensive line has to protect Baker Mayfield from a Carolina pass rush that has struggled to get to the quarterback, evidenced by just 23 sacks, which ranks 29th in the NFL. Mayfield needs to remain poised in the pocket and be accurate against the Panthers. Josh Grizzard calling for a heavy dose of play-action passes should also help open things up downfield against an opportunistic Panthers secondary.

Defensively, the Bucs need improved red zone play. Todd Bowles’ unit gives up way too many touchdowns and doesn’t force enough field goals. Slowing down the 1-2 punch of Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard is paramount, while not allowing 6-foot-5 rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan go off in the passing game. Tampa Bay’s pass rush has been missing in action, but needs to report for duty against Bryce Young in Carolina if the Bucs are going to have a chance to win.

The Panthers Win If…

If the Panthers are going to win in Week 16 and take the lead in the NFC South, it has to be a blue-collar, grind-it-out kind of game. Offensively, Carolina can’t get into a track meet with the Buccaneers – that’s a losing formula. With an offense that averages just 18.9 points per game, the Panthers need to shorten the game by committing to the run, staying on schedule, and keeping Tampa Bay’s offense on the sideline. That also means protecting the football. Carolina is minus-1 in the turnover margin, while Tampa Bay is plus-9.

Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today

Bryce Young needs to take advantage of a secondary that has been in disarray since the bye week. Tampa Bay is allowing 25.3 points per game this year, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Without Zyon McCollum, the Bucs will likely be starting two rookie cornerbacks in Jacob Parrish and Benjamin Morrison. Young needs to find star receiver Tetairoa McMillan early and often on crossing patterns attacking the middle of the field, which has been vulnerable.

Defensively, the Panthers must win at the line of scrimmage. That starts with stopping the run and making the Bucs one-dimensional. If Carolina can win first and second downs and create long-yardage situations, the Panthers can speed up Baker Mayfield’s clock and force mistakes. Disguised coverages, tight red-zone defense, and physical tackling are non-negotiable if Carolina wants to win this game.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs Interior O-Line vs. Panthers DT Derrick Brown

Tampa Bay entered the 2025 season with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL – when healthy. The Bucs were awfully good in pass protection last year and one of the league’s best running teams as a result of great play from the O-line. But injuries have ravaged that unit with only center Graham Barton suiting up for all 14 games this year. While Tampa Bay’s strength up front is found in the play of offensive tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, what was solid play along the interior with Barton and guards Ben Bredeson and Cody Mauch has turned into sub-par play with Bredeson and Mauch on injured reserve.

Bucs C Graham Barton, LG Mike Jordan and LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Mike Jordan and Dan Feeney have brought experience to the table as replacements, but both are practice squad-caliber linemen at this stage of their careers. As a result, the interior of the Bucs offensive line has been successfully attacked with twists and stunts, which has caused immediate pressure in Baker Mayfield’s face as a result. Throw in the fact that Barton’s play has been hit and miss this season, and the interior offensive line has struggled in both short yardage running and in pass protection.

Panthers defensive tackle Derrick Brown is a force at 6-foot-5, 320 pounds and is one of the league’s better run-stuffers in the trenches. Yet Brown has made strides as a pass rusher this season. His four sacks are not only a career high, but they also lead Carolina. The Bucs cannot afford to let Brown be a game-wrecker on Sunday and Barton will have to assist his fellow guards with some timely double-team blocks. Yet with three more 320-plus-pound defensive tackles to contend with in Bobby Brown III, A’Shawn Robinson and Cam Jackson, Tampa Bay’s interior will have to pick and choose the times it doubles up on Brown wisely.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Cornerbacks vs. Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan

Tampa Bay’s secondary has struggled mightily since the bye week, surrendering 13 touchdown passes in the last six games after allowing just 10 in the first eight games of the year. Zyon McCollum wasn’t playing that well to begin with, but now he’s on injured reserve and that means that backup Kindle Vildor or rookie Benjamin Morrison will get the start at Carolina opposite Jamel Dean and rookie nickelback Jacob Parrish. Carolina head coach and play-caller Dave Canales should call a lot of 11 personnel (one back, one tight end and three receivers) to ensure that Todd Bowles’ defense is in nickel.

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan Photo by: USA Today

That would create some favorable matchups for rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina’s first-round pick. McMillan has been as good as advertised, leading all rookies with 57 catches for 826 yards and six touchdowns. Canales coached Mike Evans for one year in Tampa Bay in 2023 and now has his own version of Evans in Carolina with the 6-foot-5, 212-pound McMillan, who uses his size to create mismatches underneath and down the field. Look for McMillan to be targeted early and often by Bryce Young on Sunday.

If Bowles wants to truly take away McMillan he would use Jamel Dean in man coverage against him on every down. But typically Bowles likes to play Dean exclusively on the right side of his defense. That will allow Canales to create favorable matches – and ultimately mismatches – with McMillan in the slot against the 5-foot-10 Parrish and outside against either Vildor, who can be physically outmatched, or Morrison, who lacks experience due to injuries this year. If McMillan goes off for 100 yards and scores a touchdown that could a long way towards a Panthers victory on Sunday.