Even with how much of a mess the Bucs have been over the last two months, they still have everything right in front of them as they enter the final three weeks of the 2025 regular season. It’s all straightforward: Win at least two out of these next three games and you win the NFC South for a fifth straight season, clinch a sixth straight playoff berth and host the No. 5 seed at Raymond James Stadium on Wild Card Weekend.

It won’t be easy, though, especially with the way Tampa Bay is playing. The season-deciding three-game stretch for the 7-7 Bucs starts Sunday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, where they’ll match up with the 7-7 Panthers. The top spot in the division is on the line, and with only two weeks left after this one, this is a massive swing game in the race. Can Todd Bowles and Co. stop their slide and put their 1-5 stretch since the bye week in the past? Or will old friend-turned-foe Dave Canales get his team to the cusp of its first division title in a decade?

Tampa Bay’s chances to win the NFC South again will skyrocket to 95% with a win in this game. But with a loss, this team will have its back against the wall, as it’ll have to win at Miami in Week 17 and beat the Panthers back in Tampa in Week 18 to keep its reign atop the division alive.

It means less when you compare it to the actual division title and playoff stakes in play, but the Bucs also come into this game looking to keep their recent run of success over the Panthers going. Carolina once had a 24-15 advantage in the all-time series between these two teams, but Tampa Bay has won nine of the last 10 meetings to close the gap to 25-24. If the Bucs bounce back with a win on Sunday, it’ll be all square at 25-all.

Now, let’s dive further into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in this monumental game on the Sunday before Christmas Day:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Panthers Matchup?

Formulaically, these “What to Watch For” previews normally start with a focus on the Bucs offense. But there’s just something about this matchup that makes starting with the Tampa Bay defense – particularly the back end – more sensible. Because if this Buccaneer defense can’t show any kind of resistance against Bryce Young and the Panthers passing game, there’s very little hope of this team coming up with a crucial road win. Zyon McCollum is now on injured reserve, so it’ll be up to Jamel Dean and rookie Benjamin Morrison on the outside while the linebackers and safeties have to find some way to cover the wide-open middle of the field. Otherwise, this is hopeless.

Of course, it would help if the Buccaneer pass rush could show a little bit of life. Tyler Shough and Kirk Cousins tore up this defense in back to back weeks, and the lack of pressure on the quarterback is part of the reason why. Shough was sacked three times in that game two weeks ago, but the defense left a few more sacks out there. Then, Cousins was sacked only one time in last Thursday night’s loss.

Can Yaya Diaby, Haason Reddick and Vita Vea get the job done up front? Might the Bucs elevate Jason Pierre-Paul from the practice squad? Will Todd Bowles dial up some more pressure to try to get something going? If Young is able to sit comfortably in the pocket, he’ll pick apart this defense and put the Panthers in a position to win. The Bucs can’t let that happen.

Panthers QB Bryce Young and Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: USA Today

As much as Tampa Bay left a few sacks on the table against Shough and the Saints two weeks ago, the defense left a couple of takeaways out there in the loss to Atlanta last Thursday night. A red zone fumble that had four or five defenders around the ball somehow wasn’t recovered, and that drive ended in a touchdown. Then, on the Falcons’ game-winning drive, a Reddick sack-fumble was ruled to have been recovered “simultaneously.” If the ball is on the ground for the taking or if Young makes some turnover-worthy throws, this defense has to take advantage. It’s not a good enough unit to miss those chances.

Now we can flip over to the offense, and the deciding factor on that side is the same as it’s been for weeks: Can the Bucs get a better version of Baker Mayfield? He said it himself after last Thursday night’s collapse: He can’t throw that fourth-quarter interception in that situation, nor can he afford to miss that throw to Emeka Egbuka late in the game that would’ve been a first down. It’s noble of Mayfield to shoulder ALL of the blame considering how much of a disaster the defense was down the stretch. But it’s true that if Tampa Bay is going to retain the NFC South title, Mayfield is going to have to flip a switch fast.

What should help Mayfield against the Panthers and their middle-of-the-road pass defense is that once again, he’s set to have his full arsenal of weapons in this game. Mike Evans’ return in Week 15 was massive for the offense, and Jalen McMillan looked good in his return, too. Having those two guys back to pair with Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. should continue to allow Mayfield and offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard to find success through the air. No. 6 just has to hit the throws that are there.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving Photo by: USA Today

Lastly for the Buccaneer offense, getting the same Bucky Irving who destroyed the Panthers over two meetings in his 2024 rookie year could change a whole lot, too. When Tampa Bay won at Carolina early last December, Irving ran for 152 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries (6.1 avg.) while catching three passes for 33 more yards. When the two teams met again in Tampa later in the month, he ran 20 times for 113 yards (5.7 avg) while catching four passes for 77 yards as well. That was the Ducky Irving game, if you’ll remember. Another big day for the Bucs’ lead back would go a long way in helping Mayfield and the offense control this contest.

On the Panthers’ side of this matchup, which Bryce Young shows up? Is it the guy who has four three-touchdown games to his name this year? Or is it the one who has been held under 160 passing yards in six games this season? Given the state of the Buccaneer defense, the answer seems obvious. But if Young isn’t making the throws and taking advantage of Tampa Bay’s porous secondary, it’ll limit the ceiling for this Carolina offense and allow the Tampa Bay offense to hang around.

Some of the questions around the Panthers passing attack are with Young and whether he can make the throws that are there, but there’s also the matter of someone other than rookie sensation Tetairoa McMillan needing to step up. McMillan leads Carolina with 851 yards and six touchdowns this season, and the next-closest receiver to him is Xavier Legette, who has just 326 yards and three touchdowns. Can Legette or Jalen Coker provide enough secondary production? Will Tommy Tremble continue to inexplicably dominate the Buccaneer defense as he historically has?

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum and Panthers TE Tommy Tremble – Photo by: USA Today

The one area where this Bucs defense might have an edge over the Panthers offense is on the ground. For all of its faults, the Tampa Bay defense is still a top-10 unit against the run. Carolina comes in with the No. 9 rushing offense in the league behind Rico Dowdle (978 yards, six touchdowns) and Chuba Hubbard (462 yards, one touchdown). Will the Panthers be able to run the ball the way they have been, or can the Bucs shut that down? That could be a significant decider in this one.

For the Carolina defense, there has to be a lot of pressure (no pun intended) on the pass rush. The Panthers haven’t done a great job getting after the quarterback this season, with the team’s 23 sacks being the fourth-fewest in the league this year. There have been times when Baker Mayfield has created his own pressure as of late, but if he’s better about that come Sunday, will Ejiro Evero‘s defense be able to generate enough? Derrick Brown leads the way this year with only four sacks, but he’ll have a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay’s weakened interior, which features two backup guards.

The Panthers come into Week 16 dead in the middle of the NFL in terms of stopping the run. They rank 16th in the league, allowing 116 yards per game on the ground. Can they do enough to handle Bucky Irving, as well as Rachaad White and Sean Tucker? Because as much as Irving ran all over Carolina in 2024, White has been running the ball well lately (in limited touches) and Tucker has touchdowns in back-to-back games.

Another key for the Carolina defense? Finding a way to deal with Mike Evans. Evans caught six passes for 132 yards in his return to action last Thursday, plus he drew somewhere around 1,000 penalties on the Atlanta secondary. He has fared extremely well against the Panthers in his career, putting up 118 catches for 1,695 yards (14.4 avg.) and 14 touchdowns over 21 games against them, and as Carolina head coach Dave Canales pointed out this week, this officiating crew has a tendency to throw pass interference flags. Look for Evans to be a factor in that way, too.

Bucs WR Mike Evans and Panthers CB Jaycee Horn – Photo by: USA Today

And for one final factor on the Carolina side of things, how will Canales’ team handle the spot it finds itself in? This is a must-win game for a team that wasn’t expected to be in this position, and a team that may be a year ahead of schedule. Can the Panthers rise to the occasion at home and set themselves up with a chance to clinch the NFC South for the first time since 2015 next week? Or will they lose back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 1 and 2, setting the Bucs up with a 95% chance to win their fifth straight division title?

Key Players To Watch

Yes, we just talked about Mike Evans‘ impressive return to action, his longtime dominance over the Panthers and the fact that his ability to draw pass interference calls could prove significant with the crew that is calling Sunday’s game. But the focus here remains on Evans anyway because how could it not? He hadn’t played in a game since Oct. 20, yet on Dec. 11, he came out and caught six passes for 132 yards, averaging 22 yards per catch. Whether it’s another performance like that or the kind of game where he opens things up for the receivers around him, the future Hall of Famer will be a factor in Charlotte.

Tykee Smith has been the Bucs’ best defender this season, and getting him back after he missed Week 15 with a neck/shoulder injury could be massive for this defense in a must-win game. The second-year stud comes into play with 90 tackles (54 solo), a team-high 12 passes defensed, two sacks, six tackles for loss, an interception and two fumble recoveries. Between his playmaking ability, the presence he offers against the run and the way he defends the pass, look for him to be a difference-maker in Sunday’s game.

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan Photo by: USA Today

Early in the season, it was Tampa Bay’s Emeka Egbuka looking like the best receiver from the 2025 draft class and a frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. But quietly, Carolina’s Tetairoa McMillan was right there with him. And when you compare the two through 15 weeks, their numbers are eerily similar. Egbuka has 58 catches for 870 yards (15.0 avg.) and six touchdowns, while McMillan has 59 catches for 851 yards (14.4 avg.) and six touchdowns of his own. Like Egbuka was for the Bucs due to the injury situation, McMillan has had to be the Panthers’ No. 1 guy for much of the season, and he’ll be asked to be that again on Sunday.

Jaycee Horn enters Week 16 tied for the second-most interceptions in the NFL with five. That’s a career high for the 2021 first-round pick, and it matches the number of interceptions he totaled over his first four seasons combined. He’ll likely draw Mike Evans this week, and the two certainly aren’t strangers to each other. They’ve had their battles in the past, and Horn actually matches up pretty well physically at 6-foot-1, 200 pounds. Can Horn get the best of Evans this time around, or will Evans be able to take over the game and drive the Buccaneer offense with explosive plays?