As bad as it felt for the Bucs when they blew a 28-14 fourth-quarter lead and lost to the Falcons on Thursday Night Football in Week 15, they ended the weekend right where they started it, which was atop the NFC South thanks to the record vs. common opponents tiebreaker they hold over the Panthers.

That’s because the Panthers went and blew a prime opportunity to take control of the division, losing on Sunday afternoon to the Saints to drop to 7-7. That set up a big-time showdown in Charlotte in Week 16, with the winner of the first of two Bucs-Panthers meetings over the next three weeks grabbing a leg up in the race.

With a Bucs win, they could set up a “hat and t-shirt game” in Miami next Sunday. Win and you’re in, that’s it. With a Panthers win, they could set up a possible clinching scenario of their own in Week 17, though they’d need to beat the 12-3 Seahawks and get some help in the form of a Dolphins win over the Bucs. At the very least, a Carolina victory would ensure that the race extended to the regular season finale in Tampa on the first weekend of January.

So, how it would play out? You know by now.

Tampa Bay played a back and forth game with Carolina only to lose in the end by a score of 23-20. With their third straight NFC South loss and sixth loss overall in the last seven games since the bye week, the Bucs fell to a full game back of the Panthers in the division race. That means Tampa Bay has to win its final two games in order to retain the NFC South title for the fifth straight season.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN – Jim Dedmon

If the Panthers beat the Seahawks and the Bucs lose to the Dolphins in Week 17, though, the Panthers will win their first division title in a decade and the Bucs will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2019.

Elsewhere in the NFC South, both the Falcons and the Saints won, though both teams are eliminated from playoff contention anyway.

NFC South Standings Through Week 16

Carolina Panthers – 8-7 (3-2 in NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-8 (2-3 in NFC South)
e — Atlanta Falcons – 6-9 (2-3 in NFC South) — 2 games back
e — New Orleans Saints – 5-10 (3-2 in NFC South) — 3 games back

(e –: eliminated from playoff contention)

Remaining Schedules for Tampa Bay and Carolina:

Bucs: at Dolphins (6-9), vs. Panthers (8-7)
Panthers: vs. Seahawks (12-3), at Bucs (7-8)

With two more weeks to play in the 2025 regular season, the scenarios are pretty simple in the NFC South. Tampa Bay still controls its own destiny, as wins over Miami in Week 17 and Carolina in Week 18 would mean another division title anyway. But Carolina can clinch the division before Week 18 with a win over Seattle and a Tampa Bay loss in Miami.

Now, on to the NFC playoff picture.

There was a massive change in the landscape early in Week 16 with the Seahawks winning an absolute thriller, 38-37, in overtime over the Rams in Seattle. Los Angeles led big in the fourth quarter, but Seattle stormed back to force overtime. And even after Matthew Stafford led the go-ahead touchdown drive on the first possession of overtime, Sam Darnold and the Seahawks offense responded by going down the field, scoring and cashing in on a successful two-point conversion to win the game.

That victory moved the Seahawks (12-3) ahead of the Rams (11-4) for first place in the NFC West and with that, they’re also in possession of the NFC’s No. 1 seed with two weeks left in the regular season. The Rams, meanwhile, dropped to the first NFC wild card spot with the loss.

On Saturday evening, the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles (10-5) became the first division winner in the NFC. Their 29-18 win over the Commanders won them the NFC East and officially eliminated the Cowboys from playoff contention. As things stand, Philadelphia remains the No. 3 seed in the conference with two weeks to go.

Bears QB Caleb Williams – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Mark Hoffman

Later Saturday night, there was another big game with massive playoff implications in the NFC. Only two weeks after beating the Bears at Lambeau Field to take the lead in the NFC North, the Packers made the return trip to Soldier Field as the NFC’s No. 7 seed following last week’s results. And while it looked like Green Bay was headed for a season sweep of Chicago despite losing quarterback Jordan Love in the first half, Caleb Williams and the Bears had other ideas.

After getting within 16-9 just before the two-minute warning, Chicago recovered an onside kick to keep its hopes alive. Then, with 24 seconds to go, Williams found Jahdae Walker for a 6-yard touchdown to tie the game and force overtime. And following a fourth-down stop by the Bears defense in overtime, Williams and D.J. Moore connected for the game-winning, walk-off 46-yard touchdown to keep Chicago atop the NFC North and in possession of the NFC’s No. 2 seed.

With the Panthers’ win over the Bucs, they now hold the NFC South lead and the No. 4 seed in the conference with two weeks to go in the regular season.

With the Lions’ loss to the Steelers on Sunday afternoon, they’re now dangerously close to being eliminated from playoff contention. That loss secured a playoff spot for the Bears and 49ers, though the Lions have yet to be officially eliminated with two weeks to go.

The 49ers and Colts will play on Monday Night Football, with a 49ers win keeping them in the race for the NFC West title.

NFC Standings Through Week 16 (*BEFORE MONDAY NIGHT*)

1. Seattle Seahawks – 12-3 (clinched playoff spot)
2. Chicago Bears – 11-4 (clinched playoff spot)
3. Philadelphia Eagles – 10-5 (clinched NFC East)
4. Carolina Panthers – 8-7
5. Los Angeles Rams – 11-4 (clinched playoff spot)
6. San Francisco 49ers – 10-4
7. Green Bay Packers – 9-5-1

———- IN THE HUNT ———-
8. Detroit Lions – 8-7
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-8