Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Jim Dedmon

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

The Buccaneers fell to 7-8 on the season after losing their third straight game – of which were against NFC South opponents – this time at Carolina against the Panthers, 23-20. Dave Canales and Co. improved to 8-7 and now have the lead in the NFC South division with two games left in the season. Despite touchdowns from Mike Evans and Sean Tucker, the Bucs offense under-performed and Baker Mayfield threw a costly interception to seal the Panthers’ victory on the final drive.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. These Bucs Are Broken, And I’m Not Sure Todd Bowles Can Fix THem

“Inspire Change” was this week’s slogan in the NFL.

When I saw the words “Inspire Change” on the sweatshirts of Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles and Carolina head coach Dave Canales on Sunday I saw one coach who was inspiring his team to win, and one coach who was lacking inspiration and clearly out of answers. The Panthers beat the Bucs, 23-20, in Carolina, and Canales, the bully optimist, is inspiring his team to reach new heights this season after finishing with just five wins last year.

And there was definitely “change” in the air – as in the 8-7 Panthers taking a full-game lead in the NFC South for the first time in forever. There is a changing of the guard in the division.

And for the Bucs, losers of three straight games for the second time this year, this is the first time Tampa Bay has not had the division lead since Week 1. This is also the first time Tampa Bay has had a losing record all season.

The Bucs are officially broken. It’s time everyone acknowledges that – including ownership and the front office.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Jim Dedmon

This team has lost six of the last seven games since the bye week, including the last three in a row to NFC South opponents – all with .500 records or worse. The lone win was an uninspiring, 20-17 victory over a three-win Cardinals team a month ago.

Injuries can longer be an excuse. This team has been as healthy as its been all season over the last two weeks and Tampa Bay has lost two winnable games to Atlanta and Carolina despite that.

The Bucs are broken, and I don’t think Todd Bowles is the guy that can fix them. A big reason why is that his defense is a big part of the problem.

Maybe the defense wasn’t quite the culprit in the loss to Carolina as it was in the loss to Atlanta on Thursday Night Football, as Bowles’ unit only gave up 23 points to the Panthers. Yet those 23 points were four points more than the Panthers’ season average – and that was enough to beat the Bucs on Sunday.

And did you see anyone on Tampa Bay’s defense make any plays in Carolina?

Did you see any consistent pass rush from any Bucs defender?

Did you see any takeaways from the defense?

No, I didn’t, either.

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Jim Dedmon

If Bowles was a walk-around coach like Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin or Baltimore’s John Harbaugh everyone would be suggesting that he fire the defensive coordinator. Yet the problem is that Bowles is the defensive play-caller in Tampa Bay, so he’s getting both barrels right now from Bucs fans who aren’t happy with the team’s stunning collapse down the stretch as well as the constant shortcomings on defense.

I didn’t understand the blitz call from Bowles on the 22-yard touchdown pass from Bryce Young to Tetairoa McMillan with seven seconds left before halftime, either. Bowles blitzes safety Antoine Winfield Jr. on a play that was clearly going to be a quick release toss to the end zone from Young. The blitz was poorly designed with Winfield and linebackers SirVocea Dennis and Lavonte David all blitzing – but from the linebacker level rather than mugging up at the line of scrimmage.

Winfield was at the Tampa Bay 20-yard line – three yards off the line of scrimmage – and had to run 11 yards to get to Young, who released the ball out of shotgun at the 31. By the time Winfield got within a yard of Young – and he was picked up by the back in pass protection anyways – the fade pass to McMillan had already left Young’s hand. Jamel Dean inexplicably turned around too soon and wasn’t in position to make a play on the ball.

Instead of holding the Panthers to a field goal and clinging to a 10-9 lead at halftime, Tampa Bay trailed Carolina, 13-10. That four-point differential showed up big time in a three-point loss by the time the game was over.

Let’s suppose the Bucs win the next two games and they win the division. Then what? They’ll host a Rams team that is already up to 11 wins on the year and already destroyed the Bucs, 34-7 a few weeks ago. Sounds fun, doesn’t it. Get your playoff tickets now, Bucs fans!

But what gives you any confidence that the Bucs will suddenly get their act together and beat a mercurial Dolphins team in Miami next week, or beat the Panthers at Raymond James Stadium where they team is 3-4 this year?

The best Tampa Bay can finish this season is 9-8. That’s not progress from last year’s 10-7 record. And another first round playoff loss to the Rams, who would be the Bucs’ opponent right now if Tampa Bay wins the NFC South, would give Bowles a 1-4 record in the postseason.

The Glazers fired Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden for less.

STATEMENT 2. I Didn’t Understand The Bucs Gameplan On Offense

Help me understand this. With an arsenal of healthy wide receivers like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson, and a $100 million quarterback like Baker Mayfield, a two-time Pro Bowler, one would expect the Bucs to come into Carolina and sling the rock all over the yard. Isn’t the wide receiver position supposed to be the strength of the offense in Tampa Bay?

Yet the admitted gameplan of offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard and head coach Todd Bowles was to come in and run the ball and win the time of possession on Sunday. The Bucs accomplished that mission, rushing for 169 yards and a touchdown on 33 carries and controlling the clock with a 34:36 to 25:24 advantage.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Bob Donnan

But shouldn’t the gameplan be to score points – like a lot of points?

Rushing yards and winning the time of possession don’t matter if you don’t score enough points.

“[The Panthers] don’t play well when you rush over 30 attempts per game, statistically speaking,” Bowles said. “We had some runs in there and we tried to throw it. We controlled the time of possession and the clock all the way down to the end.”

The conservative, run-first approach didn’t serve the Bucs well as the team put up just 20 points in the 23-20 loss. That felt about 10 points shy of the 30 points per game this offense should be scoring with all of the weapons at the receiver position.

Mayfield completed just 18-of-26 passes for 145 yards with one touchdown and an ill-fated interception on the final drive to seal the win for Carolina. It was a very pedestrian day for Tampa Bay’s quarterback, which is a recurring trend since a three-touchdown day versus New England right after the bye. For the sixth straight game, Mayfield has been out-dueled by the opposing quarterback, including QBs like Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Shough, Kirk Cousins and Bryce Young – not to mention Drake Maye, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford.

Bucky Irving ran for 71 yards on 19 carries but averaged a modest 3.7 yards per carry. In fact, since Irving has returned to action, he has failed to rush for four yards per carry in each of the last four games.

Meanwhile, on the first carry of the game, Rachaad White rips off a 39-yard run yet only gets four more carries on the day. And this coming after he ran for 20 yards on his lone carry last week versus Atlanta. I just don’t understand what is going on offensively right now with this team.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Are The Bucs Going To Make Baker Mayfield Play Out His Contract Year?

They might. It all depends on what promises were made – if any were – to Baker Mayfield this past offseason when the team didn’t restructure his contract after his second Pro Bowl appearance and his career season in 2024.

The Bucs didn’t extend Mayfield this year, but did they promise him they would in the 2026 offseason after increasing his guaranteed money for the 2026 season to $30 million? I’m hoping they didn’t telegraph to Mayfield that a restructure and extension were coming in the offseason of his contract year. I would be fine letting Mayfield play out his contract year in 2026 and then working on a new deal that includes a pay raise.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Jim Dedmon

Giving him a raise and extending him wouldn’t be wise from the team’s standpoint right now. Yes, Mayfield is worth more than his $33.3 million annual average, but how much more? His statistics this season are much more akin to his 2023 season when he passed for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns with 10 interceptions than last year’s career numbers under Liam Coen when Mayfield passed for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns.

Mayfield’s contract negotiations for his next deal will be fascinating. Mayfield’s camp will point to the $60 million Dallas’ Dak Prescott is making and suggest Mayfield is better than Prescott. At the very least Mayfield’s agent will suggest he’s better than Tua Tagovailoa ($53 million per year), Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson ($46.1 million per year), Arizona’s Kyler Murray ($46 million per year) and Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins ($45 million per year) and likely seek a deal between $45 million and $53 million per year.

Meanwhile, Bucs assistant general manager Mike Greenberg will point out that Mayfield is not as good as Detroit’s Jared Goff ($53 million), Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes ($45 million per year) or Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford ($40 million), and suggest a contract closer to the $40 million range.

Mayfield threw 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions in helping the Bucs get out to a 6-2 start prior to the bye week. Since the bye, Mayfield has thrown just 10 touchdowns and six interceptions as the team has slumped to a 1-6 record.

If I’m Tampa Bay, I want Mayfield to play out his current deal at age 31 to truly see what kind of quarterback production I’m getting – the sub-30 touchdown guy Mayfield was under Dave Canales and is under Josh Grizzard? Or a 40-touchdown guy that he was under Coen?

QUESTION 2. Did The Bucs Make A Mistake In Letting Liam Coen Go To Jacksonville While Keeping Todd Bowles?

It’s hard to forecast how Liam Coen would have coached in Tampa Bay in an alternate universe. But to see the job he’s doing in Jacksonville right now with the Jaguars at 11 wins after beating a 12-win Broncos team in Denver on Sunday, 34-20, that certainly makes you wonder, doesn’t it? Did the Bucs make a mistake keeping Todd Bowles and letting Liam Coen leave?

Coen is a legitimate NFL Coach of the Year candidate right now. He’s not only salvaging the career of Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, he’s got him playing at a near Pro Bowl level with 26 passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns.

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Mark J. Reblias

This time last year Baker Mayfield was completing 71.4% of his passes for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns. This year, Mayfield is on pace to throw for just 27 touchdowns, his completion percentage is down nearly 10%, and he’s not on pace to throw for even 4,000 yards this year.

If the Bucs fail to make the playoffs and are going to make a coaching change after the season, this is not the year to be looking for an offensive-minded head coach. There is no Coen or Ben Johnson offensive wizard in this cycle. Most of the successful offenses in the NFL right now have offensive-minded head coaches calling the plays.

Seattle’s offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is the hottest name right now, but is he a leader of men? He’s kind of a soft-spoken, mild-mannered guy like Bowles is. Is that what the Bucs want? Is that what they need right now? I think this team needs a jolt of energy – the kind of energy Jon Gruden and Bruce Arians brought during their respective stints as head coach in Tampa Bay.

The kind of jolt that Coen is undoubtedly bringing to Jacksonville.

Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken could probably bring a jolt, too. He’s a plain-spoken, fiery, no-B.S. kind of guy. But Monken turns 60 next year and is just a few years younger than Bowles.

The Bucs may have to go with a young, energetic defensive-minded head coach if they are going to make a change, and I’d be fine with that. After all, this broken defense needs fixing, too.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Lose Next Week In Miami

Just for the record, I’m not a fan of picking against the Bucs. I know my audience is you, the Buccaneers fan. And you want to see this team win, and I want this team to win for you. But you know that I have to keep it real with you and tell it like it is. That objective analytical approach has served me well for the past 30 years that I’ve covered this team and built Pewter Report into a massive media enterprise.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Jim Dedmon

But I’m also 11-4 in picking Bucs games this year, while the team is just 7-8 over those same 15 weeks. I know this team, and I’ve been right in five of my last six predictions, accurately picking Tampa Bay to lose to Buffalo, Los Angeles, Atlanta and Carolina and to win against Arizona. My only wrong pick was selecting the Bucs to beat the Saints. So, after three straight losses to the Saints, Falcons and Panthers, what gives me any confidence that this team will get its act together against the Dolphins in Miami? Hey, you can’t blame me for picking against a team that is 1-6 since the bye week.

PREDICTION 2. Lots Of Empty Seats At Raymond James Stadium In Week 18

Let’s say the Bucs win next week in Miami and have a chance to win the NFC South and finish 9-8 with a win over the Panthers at home in Week 18. Who’s going to show up? Tampa Bay has not had one single sell out this year at Raymond James Stadium. Not for the Jets game in Week 3 with all of the New York fans and not in Week 4 against the Eagles with all the Philly fans.

Bucs fans – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Nathan Ray Seebeck

In fact, there were a lot of empty seats – I’m guessing well over 10,000 – in Tampa Bay’s game against Arizona. Granted it rained for the New Orleans games, but the actual attendance looked around 40,000 – maybe. And even the primetime creamsicle game on Thursday Night Football against Atlanta with perfect weather conditions looked at least 10,000 seats shy of full capacity. Despite star players like Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Lavonte David and rookie Emeka Egbuka, there just isn’t a lot of buzz and belief in this Todd Bowles team.

The guess here is that there are at least 10,000 more empty seats in Week 18 – certainly even more empty seats if the Bucs are eliminated by then.