This is not a call for Todd Bowles to be fired.

This is also not a defense of him keeping his job.

This is a discussion around reports on those things.

Let me explain.

On Sunday prior to the Bucs’ loss to the Dolphins in what could have been a must-win game, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport shared a report that Bowles’ job was safe despite the team’s second-half slide that may see them miss the playoffs entirely after starting the season 6-1.

Pay attention to Rapoport’s wording. He never states he has heard from sources that Bowles is safe. He merely delivers the rosiest possible presentation of Bowles’ resume.

• Bowles signed a three-year extension this past offseason (the extension does not actually start until 2026, and usually the final year is a team-option).
• The Bucs have won three straight division titles under Bowles – and still have a shot at a fourth.

He then asks if that sounds like a coach who should lose his job.

This isn’t the first time (this season!) that Rap has tried to give a vote of confidence for a head coach under fire by citing a track record that stretches into the past rather than assessing their current performance. He did the same thing last month with Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh.

Buccaneers legend Ronde Barber has also gone on record recently saying that he doesn’t believe that Bowles is on the hot seat, even with the team’s recent struggles. Barber maintains a relationship with the current front office/ownership, and so his words carry weight.

Any Decision Made By The Bucs’ Brass Right Now Is Premature – And Bad Process

If either of these reports about Todd Bowles’ future hold any real water in terms of decisions general manager Jason Licht or the Glazer ownership group have already made, I have serious concerns. The simple fact is the season isn’t over yet.

There is football to be played. After their Week 8 win over the Saints, Tampa Bay’s odds to make the playoffs were over 90%. Right now, they sit barely above a coin flip.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Nathan Ray Seebeck

A slide of this proportion in a division that is still very weak relative to the rest of the NFL is worthy of consideration as to who should lead the team next year. Bowles made his bones in the NFL as a defensive mind. The Bucs’ defense currently ranks 20th in yards per game allowed, 24th in points per game allowed and 18th in EPA/play. That’s below average in all three metrics.

That’s not a great look for a defensive head coach who publicly stated at the NFL Annual Meeting this year that he could make the defense work even if the team didn’t use their first-round pick on a defensive player.

The trajectory of this team is firmly in the downward position. If Licht and the Glazers have already made up their minds that Bowles should stay that decision is ignoring information that is still unfolding in real time.

No Decision On Todd Bowles’ Future Should Be Made Already

As hard as this may sound right now, the Bucs could still make the playoffs. If they pull that outcome out it shouldn’t mean Todd Bowles keeps his job on its face. But what if Tampa Bay wins one playoff game, as unlikely as that may be? Should that be enough? How about two? What if they make the Super Bowl? The chances of the team getting that far is low, but it is also non-zero.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and the Glazers – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For those reasons the ownership group, and Licht, shouldn’t have a decision made to fire Bowles at this point, either. What’s more, is that there is no utility in having their minds made up. It creates no extra value. It doesn’t give the team extra time to get an early jump on the coaching cycle. Any work they might do with a decision in hand can still be done as a matter of good process.

Post-Season Analysis

The day after the Bucs play their final snap in this season – whenever that may be – the team should have a sit-down with Todd Bowles and fully assess his performance to that point. That should be a mixture of both results and process. Among other things they should discuss:

• The division titles
  • The overall 35-36 record (to-date, including playoffs)
• Defensive performances under Bowles as HC
  • EPA/play ranks by year
    • 2025 – 18th
    • 2024 – 18th
    • 2023 – 17th
    • 2022 – 11th
  • Points/game ranks by year
    • 2025 – 24th
    • 2024 – 16th
    • 2023 – 7th
    • 2022 – 13th
• His offensive coordinator hires
  • Dave Canales
  • Liam Coen
  • Josh Grizzard
• Process changes/consistencies both good and bad
  • In-game decision making such as fourth downs
    • Per the website rbsdm.com
      • 2025 – 3rd best
      • 2024 – 9th best
      • 2023 – 8th worst
      • 2022 – 12 worst
  • Evolved his offensive philosophy in OC’s he brought in
    • Consistently had OC’s that were at/near top of the league in 1st down run rate
  • Defensive scheme included many vanguard philosophies used by best minds in football
    • Early down blitzes
    • Heavy sim use
    • creative pressure designer
  • Struggled to adapt scheme to backups forced into starting roles
• What were reasonable expectations for factors beyond his control?
  • 1st time playcaller
    • Grizz vs Canales (2023)
      • EPA/play
        • 2025 – (-0.06) – 22nd in NFL
        • 2023 – (-0.07) – 14th in NFL
      • Points/game
        • 2025 – 22.8 – 18th in NFL
        • 2023 – 20.5 – 20th in NFL
  • Injuries impact on the team
    • Comparisons to how other head coaches have navigated similar situations are fair game.

One thing that should not factor into the meeting/conversation is the extension Bowles signed this past offseason.

Included in this discussion should be what changes Bowles plans to implement in 2026 to improve. He has shown a willingness to adapt in several areas over his tenure. Licht will need to assess whether he thinks more adaptation is needed and whether he thinks Bowles can adapt the rest of the way fast enough.

Last year Bowles agreed to add an in-game decision analyst to his staff. That was enough. This year I would argue it should include an overhaul of most of his defensive coaching staff.

Creating A Gameplan For 2026

Based on what’s been laid out here, it would be difficult for Todd Bowles to make a strong enough case for staying on in 2026. But it can also help Jason Licht and company clarify what the team needs from the head coach position in 2026. Even if the Buccaneers elect to move on from Bowles, hearing what plans he would have for the team next year can be carried over to a new head coach in terms of both what they do want to see and what they don’t want to see.

But until that meeting there is no utility in making any decision right now.