Despite losing seven of their last eight games to watch a 6-2 start turn into a 7-9 record, the Bucs are somehow still alive in their pursuit of a fifth straight NFC South title and sixth consecutive playoff appearance heading into their regular season finale. It’s a finale that will come in front of a national audience, as they will be hosting the 8-8 Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday as part of a doubleheader to kick off Week 18.

Unsurprisingly, as a team that is 1-7 since its bye week and 2-8 since starting the season 5-1, Tampa Bay no longer controls its own destiny in the NFC South race. With the Falcons upsetting the Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 17, they now factor into the final weekend of the season despite the fact that they’ve been eliminated for weeks.

The Bucs need to beat the Panthers on Saturday first and foremost. But then, they need the Falcons to lose to the Saints on Sunday afternoon in order to retain their spot atop the division for another year and book a spot in the playoffs. If the Falcons win, though, the Panthers are NFC South champions no matter what happens at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday.

There’s little to no reason that this Bucs team still deserves a shot at the division title and the home playoff game that comes with it, but the Panthers had their chance to put this to bed last week and didn’t get the job done either. The irony of the entire NFC South race right now is that the two eliminated teams – the Falcons and Saints – have been playing better football as of late than the Bucs and Panthers, the two teams still alive for the division crown.

Before we dive further in our “What to Watch For” preview later this week, here’s a general preview of Saturday’s regular season finale at Ray Jay:

The Last Time…

You don’t have to look too far into the past for the last meeting between the Bucs and Panthers, as the two sides just met less than two weeks ago up in Charlotte. In that Week 16 game, Carolina beat Tampa Bay 23-20 to take over first place in the NFC South with two weeks to play.

The Bucs went into that contest with a gameplan that was, well, horrific. They ran, ran and ran in attempt to control possession, and while that led to scoring drives of 6:29, 7:12, 8:19 and 3:44 and an overall time of possession advantage of 34:36 to 25:24, it also limited their scoring chances.

Not to mention, Tampa Bay didn’t even run the ball all that well. Bucky Irving averaged 3.7 yards per carry, and while Rachaad White averaged 9 yards per carry, he only got four attempts outside of one explosive 39-yard run. Baker Mayfield was actually the team’s most effective runner, totaling 49 yards over four rushes.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: IMAGN – Bob Donnan

Offensive gameplan aside, the Bucs defense didn’t exactly do its part either. Bryce Young went 21-of-32 for 191 yards and two touchdowns, didn’t turn the ball over and was only sacked twice, with one of them coming on a play that saw him get stepped on by his own lineman and touched down for the sack.

And while the Bucs had a chance to drive down the field late and win the game with some more heroics in the final minute, a Mayfield interception born out of miscommunication ended those hopes. Mayfield looked to step up into a lane to fire a throw to Mike Evans, but Evans thought he was looking to scramble and instead turned to block for his quarterback. That left the throw to sail right into the waiting hands of Lathan Ransom.

The Panthers lead the all-time series over the Bucs, 26-24. Tampa Bay had won five straight over Carolina and nine of the last 10 heading into Week 16 before Carolina came away with the win on that day.

How The Bucs And Panthers Are Trending

We’re coming up on three months since the Bucs last looked like a truly competent football team. On Oct. 12, they beat the 49ers and seemed to have truly gotten over a big-time hurdle on their way to a 5-1 start. Even at 6-2 heading into their bye week, it felt like they had avoided the midseason/October slump that plagued them in the past. But then everything came crashing down.

It started with a three-game losing streak out of the bye, although a 28-23 defeat at the hands of the Patriots and a 44-32 loss on the road to the Bills could’ve been forgivable considering how the schedule from Weeks 13-18 was shaping up. Even after a disheartening 34-7 Sunday night loss to the Rams dropped them to 6-5, it felt a bit like things would soon turn around for Todd Bowles and Co., especially with three straight home games against struggling teams.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But the turnaround never came. Even a losing streak-stopping 20-17 win over the Cardinals in Week 13 wasn’t all that convincing, and what followed was the four-game losing streak the Bucs are currently on. They lost 24-20 to a Saints team that came into that game at 2-10, then blew a 28-14 fourth-quarter lead on Thursday Night Football against a Falcons team that came in at 4-9.

Since then, the Bucs dropped a close game to the Panthers on the road, 23-20, and then turned in an inexcusable effort this past Sunday in a 20-17 loss to the Dolphins. The full picture? A 1-7 record since the bye and a 2-8 record since that 5-1 start that made everything look so promising, especially considering the fact that it featured wins over the Texans, Seahawks and 49ers, teams that are now 11-5, 13-3 and 12-4, respectively.

Perhaps the most devastating part of this recent run of play is the fact that not only has it come against some of the worst teams on Tampa Bay’s schedule, but it has also come with the team healthier than it’s been all year. The Bucs got Luke Goedeke, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irivng back on offense, and you’d never guess it with the way that unit is playing and approaching games. The defense got Haason Reddick back, too, but you’d never know by watching that group try to rush the passer.

Bucs WR Mike Evans, Panthers DB Lathan Ransom – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Bob Donnan

So now, the Bucs have one last chance to stop this freefall, and it’s a chance they haven’t really earned. But the Panthers haven’t been able to put them away, and that means the door to the playoffs is just open enough for them to sneak into the dance with one good performance (that would truly come out of nowhere) and some help from the Saints (of all teams). Then again, even making it into the playoff field at 8-9 likely only extends the season by a week given the strength of whichever NFC West team earns the No. 5 seed, and calls for Bowles and his staff to be fired will only grow louder once the offseason officially arrives.

Now, as bad as the Bucs have been, the inconsistency of the Panthers has kept them from fully taking advantage. They could’ve already wrapped up their first NFC South title since 2015, but they’ve left the door open thanks to the loss-win-loss-win pattern they’ve followed since Week 8.

That’s right, after a Week 7 win over the Jets got them to 4-3, the Panthers lost to the Bills, beat the Packers, lost to the Saints, beat the Falcons, lost to the 49ers, beat the Rams, lost to the Saints, beat the Bucs and lost to the Seahawks. With the way that pattern has gone, they’re due for a Week 18 win over the Bucs, and that’s all they need to win the division as they’d be 9-8 and wouldn’t need any help come Sunday. It’s a simple win-and-in scenario for Dave Canales and his team on Saturday.

Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Jim Dedmon

Carolina’s offense is coming off an absolute stinker in Week 17, which is a big reason why Canales and Co. failed to capitalize on the Bucs’ loss to the Dolphins and clinch the division then and there. The Seahawks defense dominated Bryce Young and the Panthers offense, holding Young to an abysmal line of 14-of-24 for 54 yards and an interception. Outside of a 69-yard touchdown drive that got the Panthers within 17-10 in the fourth quarter, the offense totaled only 70 more yards across 10 other drives.

It was the defense that kept Carolina in that game, with Ejiro Evero‘s unit racking up three sacks, intercepting Sam Darnold once and forcing a Darnold fumble. The Seattle run game did the most damage, with Zach Charbonnet averaging 6.1 yards per carry on his way to a 110-yard day and Kenneth Walker III adding 51 more yards over 15 carries. Still, the Panther defense kept it a 3-3 game into the third quarter and has been the more reliable side of the football for Canales’ team throughout the year.

There has to be some pressure on the Panthers to show a killer instinct on Saturday. While there might be an element of “no one expected us to be here” with a squad that may be a year ahead of schedule, this is also a prime opportunity for an inexperienced team with a young quarterback to strike and steal the division title away from the four-time reigning champions and perceived favorites. Coming into Tampa and winning on Saturday to get themselves a sweep of the Bucs and an outright division title would be huge for a franchise that hasn’t been in the playoffs over the last decade.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: IMAGN – Bob Donnan

Then again, the Panthers could back their way into the division title and a home playoff game next weekend even with a loss to the Bucs. They would just need help in the form of a Falcons win over the Panthers, as that would force a three-team tie atop the division at 8-9. In that scenario, Carolina wins out thanks to its sweep of Atlanta and Tampa Bay’s 1-1 split with Atlanta. In a way, that’s the most fitting finish left on the table for the season this division has put together.

Here’s how the Bucs and Panthers stack up heading into Week 18:

Bucs Offense: 22nd in scoring offense (22.8 PPG), 22nd in total offense (319.3 yards per game), 20th in passing offense (206.4 yards per game), 21st in rushing offense (112.9 yards per game)

Panthers Offense: 27th in scoring offense (18.6 PPG), 27th in total offense (296.3 yards per game), 26th in passing offense (173.9 yards per game), 11th in rushing offense (122.4 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 24th in scoring defense (24.8 points allowed per game), 20th in total defense (340.5 yards allowed per game), 26th in passing defense (236.4 yards allowed per game), T-7th in rushing defense (104.1 yards allowed per game)

Panthers Defense: T-16th in scoring defense (22.8 points allowed per game), 15th in total defense (326.6 yards allowed per game), 14th in passing defense (204.3 yards allowed per game), 19th in rushing defense (122.3 yards allowed per game)

As of Tuesday night, the Bucs are 2.5-point favorites, with the Over/Under set at 44 (per Hard Rock Bet).

Bucs vs. Panthers Game Information

When: Saturday, January 3
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN/ABC – Chris Fowler (Play by Play), Dan Orlovsky & Louis Riddick (Analysts), Katie George & Peter Schrager (Reporters)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Martín Gramática, Santiago Gramática