INTRO: Happy New Year! Or is it for Bucs fans, watching your team’s record disintegrate from 6-2 to 7-9 over the past two months during an embarrassing and disappointing 1-7 stretch? If you don’t think that Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles should be retained in 2026, then this is the SR’s FAB 5 column you’ve been waiting for. I’ve arrived at that conclusion myself. Enjoy!

FAB 1. It’s Hard To Make The Case For The Bucs Keeping Todd Bowles

It’s hard to make a case for keeping Todd Bowles as Tampa Bay’s head coach – especially if the Bucs lose to the Panthers at home on Saturday and finish 7-10.

There is a chance that Tampa Bay could finish third in the NFC South by Sunday, which is a shocking revelation considering that the Bucs held the lead in the division since Week 1 of the 2025 season. Losing eight out of the last nine games would be a stunning fall – an epic collapse – the likes of which we haven’t seen in quite some time in Tampa Bay. Quite frankly, that should be a fireable offense.

Bowles has had a 9-8 record in 2023 and a 10-7 record last year sandwiched in between an 8-9 record in 2022, which was his first season as head coach, and this year – which will be either an 8-9 or 7-10 finish. A 7-10 record would give Bowles a 34-34 record as Tampa Bay’s head coach, which is the definition of average – or mediocre.

If the Glazers want to settle for average football teams with mediocre seasons, then Bowles has proven to be the guy for the job. Two winning seasons in Tampa Bay bookended by two losing seasons.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

What if the Bucs win versus the Panthers, but still lose the division because the Falcons beat the Saints, giving Carolina the NFC South championship by way of a tiebreaker? Is finishing 8-9 really any better than 7-10? At this point it means a later first-round draft pick, which isn’t ideal.

Either is an unacceptable, losing record after a 6-2 start – whether it is with a 2-7 finish or a 1-8 finish.

Let’s not forget that the NFC South could have a team with a losing record win the division this year – just like Tampa Bay did in 2022. The NFC South is the worst division in football. Let’s not forget that, either.

Winning this division is like being the king of crap hill. I’m not trying to diminish Bowles or the Bucs’ accomplishments here, but if Tampa Bay were in any of the other NFC divisions the team would have had zero division titles in each of Bowles’ four years as head coach. That’s just a fact.

Is there a chance Bowles can keep his job? If the Bucs win on Saturday, wind up winning the division again, and win a home playoff game in the Wild Card round the next week, I suspect Bowles would be able to stay on as head coach as long as he makes some necessary staff changes. The further Tampa Bay goes in the playoffs, the more likely it is that Bowles would stay.

There have been some NFL insiders who have suggested that Bowles is safe no matter what. NFL’s Ian Rapoport. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler. Bucs Hall of Famer and WFLA podcaster Ronde Barber. Former Bucs head coach and Pat McAfee contributor Bruce Arians.

They all believe Bowles won’t be fired – even if the team loses five straight games to finish out the 2025 season.

Bucs co-owner Darcie Glazer-Kassowitz and head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But here’s the problem. None of them has the last name Glazer – and neither do I.

So we don’t really know what Bucs ownership is truly thinking.

Not even Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer, who has the same last name (but no relation), knows what is going to happen to Bowles.

What I do know is that former Bucs general manager Mark Dominik told me the week before the 2013 season finale at New Orleans that both he and former head coach Greg Schiano were told they were safe. That despite a 0-8 start to Schiano’s second season that year, the Bucs then won four out of their next five games and were showing enough progress to avoid regime change – even though the Bucs dropped two more games in December to sink to 4-11.

But Tampa Bay got crushed by New Orleans, 42-17, in the season finale, and both Schiano and Dominik were fired the next day. Did the Glazers give Dominik a very false sense of security? Or were they truly safe until the unfortunate Week 17 outcome against the Saints changed the Glazers’ minds at the last minute?

I also know that the Glazers firing head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Bruce Allen 19 days after the end of the 2008 season in which a hot, 9-3 start dissolved into a 9-7 finish without a playoff berth thanks to four straight losses to end the year.

By the way, both Gruden and Allen were each given three-year contract extensions during the 2008 offseason. Just like Bowles was this past offseason.

Todd Bowles is a fine man – a great man in fact. He has served this franchise well and helped Tampa Bay win a Super Bowl in 2020 as Bruce Arians’ defensive coordinator. He kept the team from cratering after Tom Brady’s retirement and posted some respectable records in the process.

But it’s clear that the Bucs have gone as far as Bowles can take them. As the losses mounted after the bye week, it became clear that Bowles was a man without answers. That was obvious to see at any of his press conferences.

Bucs ILB Lavonte David and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s not that Bowles lost the locker room. It’s not that the players were necessarily tuning him out. It’s just that Bowles has lost his effectiveness with this team.

Maybe his message got stale … because this Bucs team looks stale right now – very stale.

Tampa Bay needs a breath of fresh air that only a new mouth can bring.

Bowles’ past accomplishments truly mean nothing moving forward. The NFL is the ultimate “what have you done for me lately?” league.

His defensive masterpiece of a game plan in Super Bowl LV was six years ago and doesn’t matter right now. Bowles’ 10-win season a year ago should have absolutely no bearing on what happens in 2026 because it’s not as important as what has transpired over the last nine weeks.

Yes, coaching searches are a hassle. Maintaining the status quo would be far easier for the Glazers and general manager Jason Licht this offseason.

But there is a problem with being a prisoner of mediocrity. The prisoner who is concerned about escaping from his captor because he fears retribution if he’s caught is far worse than the prisoner who openly welcomes the freedom that comes with escape and tries to leave.

I’m sure the Glazers are worried about possibly ushering in another decade of darkness that followed after firing Gruden in 2008. Raheem Morris led to Greg Schiano, who led to Lovie Smith, who led to Dirk Koetter. Yes, a bad coaching hire can make it worse in Tampa Bay. But a good hire can also make it better.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Bob Donnan

Keeping Bowles would be comfortable. He’s a great guy, who is well respected and has accomplished a lot here. Bowles could be considered a good leader due to the team chemistry in the locker room and the harmonious nature of this roster.

This season has proven that Bowles is not a great problem-solver. Being a good leader does not always equate to being a good-problem solver.

Winning hats and t-shirts would be celebrated in Carolina this year. It should be. It’s been a while since the Panthers have won the division. Nine wins would be huge for Dave Canales and Co. Even winning the division via a tiebreaker with an 8-9 record would be welcomed.

Eight wins is an embarrassment for Tampa Bay. It’s disappointing after a 6-2 start. If half of the division titles won in the Bowles era are with losing records it’s quite a hollow achievement.

The Glazers and Licht must decide based on recent evidence if Todd Bowles is the right man for the job moving forward. Has he done enough this year to suggest that things will be better in 2026?

In order to come to that conclusion, the Glazers and Licht are going to need to ask some serious questions – and soon. The list of questions they should ask themselves can be found in FAB 2. Keep reading.

FAB 2. The Questions About Todd Bowles That The Glazers And Jason Licht Must Ask

Here are some questions that Bucs ownership and general manager Jason Licht need to ask themselves – and really must ponder by Sunday as they contemplate Todd Bowles’ future in Tampa Bay.

What does this Bucs team do well right now under Bowles? Or perhaps more importantly, what does this team do well on a consistent basis, and how does that translate to winning on the field?

I honestly can’t think of a single thing that this team can truly hang its hat on right now. Can you?

On offense, despite the return of star wide receivers Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan and running back Bucky Irving, the Bucs have curiously scored fewer points. Over the last three losses, Tampa Bay has averaged just 21.7 points per game.

Bucs OC Josh Grizzard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Why did scoring go down as the offense got healthier? The last time the Bucs scored 30 points or more in a game was without Irving, Evans and McMillan up in Buffalo in a 44-32 loss.

The Bucs have been inconsistent running the ball this year, but why hasn’t Irving had a single game where he’s averaged 4.0 yards per carry? And why, despite the lack of production, has he continued to be featured over Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, who have been more productive statistically speaking? Bowles doesn’t the run offense, but he can give offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard some directives because he is the head coach.

Since the bye week, Baker Mayfield has thrown 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions after throwing 13 touchdowns and two interceptions during the team’s 6-2 start. Tampa Bay is 7-1 in games where Mayfield hasn’t thrown a pick and 0-8 in games when he has.

Why has Mayfield thrown five interceptions in the Bucs’ last four games, including several in the fourth quarter – all of which have been losses? What has Bowles communicated to Mayfield about his interceptions in practice and in meeting rooms?

Where are the Bucs more comfortable – at home or on the road? Tampa Bay is just 3-4 at Raymond James Stadium and doesn’t have a homefield advantage this season. The Bucs are also not road warriors, evidenced by a 4-5 record in away games in 2025.

On defense, which is Bowles’ side of the ball, what does that unit do well?

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Why is tackling so poor?

Why can’t the Bucs consistently rush the passer and get to the quarterback?

Why are there so many coverage busts downfield on a weekly basis by so many defenders?

Why has the middle of the defense been so constantly soft in coverage – not just this year, but dating back to last year?

Why can’t the team’s linebackers consistently cover running backs out of the backfield?

Why haven’t the Bucs developed a single Pro Bowl cornerback despite the team investing four second-round picks and a pair of third-round picks at the position since the 2018 season?

Why are Tampa Bay’s special teams so bad?

Bucs ST coordinator Thomas McGaughey, OC Josh Grizzard and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Outside of kicker Chase McLaughlin – when he’s not getting his field goals blocked – special teams have been a disaster this year. Why hasn’t special teams coordinator Thomas McGaughey been fired?

The Bucs’ injuries certainly have been bad this year, but how much of an excuse can we allow them to be?

Bowles may not want to hear it, but the Bucs were actually better when they had more injuries earlier in the season. Tampa Bay was more banged up during the team’s 6-2 start than it is right now during the team’s 1-7 finish. That’s just a fact.

The 2024 Lions were one of the most injured-ravaged teams in recent memory last year, especially on the defensive side. Yet that didn’t prevent Detroit from going 15-2 last year and fending off a 14-3 Minnesota squad for the division title in the process.

If Bowles didn’t have the answers to stop a 1-7 – and potentially a 1-8 – slide at the end of the 2025 season, what makes anyone think he’ll have the answers to fix the Bucs in 2026?

For Bowles to return in 2026 would he be willing to fire some of assistant coaches?

Would he be willing to fire cornerbacks coach Kevin Ross, whom he played with back in college at Temple? Would he be willing to fire safeties coach Nick Rapone, who was his position coach when Bowles was a safety at Temple?

Football is a young man’s game, and Ross will turn 64 in January while Rapone will turn 70 in April.

Bucs S coach Nick Rapone – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Would Bowles still want to be Tampa Bay’s head coach if he had to give up play-calling duties on defense? I’m not sure he would.

And what if Bowles gave up play-calling duties to Larry Foote in 2026, but then after three games he wanted to take them back? How would the team feel about that?

Does Bowles think Grizzard should stay on for another season to run the offense? If so, why?

Should Bowles be trusted with another offensive coordinator hire after Grizzard’s underwhelming season?

The Bucs ranked 20th in points and 23rd in total yardage in 2023 with Dave Canales then improved to fourth in scoring and third in total yardage in 2024 under Liam Coen. Tampa Bay’s offense has regressed under Grizzard, ranking 18th in points and 22nd in total yards despite having more weapons.

If Bowles stays on as head coach in 2026, who is going to want to be the offensive coordinator for a head coach who will firmly be on the hot seat in 2026 coming off a losing record?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

That was the case back in 2023 when Todd Monken and Dan Pitcher, among others, turned down the Bucs offensive coordinator job because they thought Bowles was a dead man walking after an 8-9 record in his first season as head coach. Canales was hired despite not have any play-calling experience because he was the only one who said yes.

Do the Glazers even want to bring back a head coach who will start the 2026 season on the hot seat?

How many empty seats will there be on Saturday over fan apathy and fan displeasure – even with the division and a playoff spot on the line? The Bucs have had thousands of empty seats for games against the Cardinals, the Saints and the Falcons in recent weeks.

There are a lot of tough questions that the Glazers and Licht need to find answers for about the possible future direction of this team under Bowles.

FAB 3. What Will Make Bucs Fans Want To Buy Tickets In 2026?

In case you haven’t noticed, the Bucs haven’t had a sellout at Raymond James Stadium all season. There weren’t even enough Eagles fans or Patriots fans invading Raymond James Stadium this year to fill it in Weeks 4 and 11, respectively.

Coming off a fourth straight division title, a 10-win season, and a roster that had established stars like Mike Evans, Lavonte David, Chris Godwin, Baker Mayfield, Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr., as well as an emerging star in Bucky Irving, the Bucs couldn’t sell 65,000 tickets to any one particular game in 2025. Not even the 50th season celebration in the Week 3 home opener after a 2-0 start, or a creamsicle game in prime time could fill up Raymond James Stadium.

Is that going to get any easier if Todd Bowles returns next year – or will it be even harder?

Bucs WR Mike Evans and ILB Lavonte David – Photos by: Cliff Welch

There is a chance that Evans, who turns 33 years old in August, retires after this season. There is even more of a chance that David retires as he turns 36 later this month.

Mayfield’s game has tanked over the second half of the season. The bloom has come off Irving’s rose, as he’s not even the best running back on the team right now.

Winfield hasn’t made half the plays he made two years ago when he was an All-Pro.

How many fans really show up just to see an All-Pro left tackle block? “I can’t wait to see Tristan pass protect today!”

Who’s going to want to buy season tickets next year?

Even if the Bucs somehow win the NFC South with an 8-9 record, who is going to want to buy playoff tickets for next week? Who wants to pay to watch an inferior Tampa Bay team lose to a 12-win San Francisco or Los Angeles Rams team at Raymond James Stadium?

And if you think that the Bucs could beat the 49ers just because they did it back in Week 6 – that’s ancient history. Tampa Bay has gotten much worse since then and San Francisco has gotten much better.

Pewter Report did a poll on X this week asking fans if Todd Bowles deserves to return to coach the Bucs in 2026. Out of 2,151 respondents, a whopping 90% said “No, absolutely not.”

Bowles has never been terribly popular with the Bucs fan base. He’s a distant fourth in the modern era in terms of popularity behind Jon Gruden, Bruce Arians and Tony Dungy.

But right now, with a losing record on deck in a season that has been squandered, Bowles has never been more unpopular.

My guess is that if Bowles returns in 2026 the Bucs fan base will grow from an apathetic one to an angry one based on the feedback Pewter Report receives on its social media platforms and podcasts. Expect even more empty seats at Ray Jay as a result.

FAB 4. Jason Licht May Be In Unfamiliar Waters For Possible Bucs’ Coaching Search

If the Bucs decide to move on from Todd Bowles after the 2025 season and go in a different direction, it could mark the first time that general manager Jason Licht goes outside of the organization and outside of his network of coaches he’s worked with before to find Bowles’ replacement. This would be uncharted territory for Licht, who has led the franchise since 2014.

Remember, the Glazers hired Lovie Smith to be the head coach in 2014 to replace Greg Schiano. Because general manager Mark Dominik was also fired, the team needed to fill that vacancy in the front office, too. Smith suggested Tampa Bay hire Licht, and two years later after the Bucs went 8-24, Licht fired Smith and promoted offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to replace him. Licht had seen Koetter in action for two seasons and the team had a young quarterback in Jameis Winston that needed developing.

After a 9-7 record in 2016, the Bucs gave Koetter two more seasons to try to get to the playoffs. But after a pair of 5-11 seasons, Koetter needed to be replaced.

Bucs GM Jason Licht & HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So, Licht turned to a familiar face he had worked with in Arizona in 2012-13 in former head coach Bruce Arians, who was retired. After a 7-9 season, the Bucs bailed on Winston and signed Tom Brady in free agency in 2020 to win Super Bowl LV that season. After three years, Arians abruptly retired in late March of 2022 and turned the team over to defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.

Licht didn’t have anything to do with Bowles’ hire outside of rubber stamping it. Licht had known Bowles dating back to that time in Arizona where he was Arians’ defensive coordinator and had obviously worked with him in Tampa Bay from 2019-21 in that same capacity. So, Licht had some familiarity with the two coaches he offered up to the Glazers – Koetter and Arians – as well as Bowles, whom Arians offered up as his replacement.

If the Bucs fire Bowles, Licht will be in new territory, conducting a coaching search that will feature a brand-new face and a complete unknown – someone he has not worked with before.

Unless Tampa Bay hires Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who served as Koetter’s wide receivers coach from 2016-17 and was the offensive play-caller in 2018. Monken, who turns 60 in February, was the head coach at Southern Miss from 2013-15 prior to coming to the Bucs organization. After Koetter’s staff was fired, Monken landed in Cleveland where he served as offensive coordinator for one season, coaching quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Former Bucs OC Todd Monken – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

From there he went to Georgia where he was Kirby Smart’s offensive coordinator from 2020-22 and helped the Bulldogs win back-to-back national championships. In 2023, he interviewed for offensive coordinator jobs with the Bucs and Ravens, opting to work with John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson rather than Bowles, who was coming off an 8-9 season and would be without Tom Brady, who retired after the 2022 season.

Monken would be an offensive-minded head coach that is more akin to Bruce Arians in terms of his feisty demeanor, no-B.S. mindset and tell-it-like-it-is nature. He would be the polar opposite of Bowles in many ways, and he would likely get along fine with Licht, as the two worked together for three seasons in Tampa Bay.

But if it’s not Monken, then Licht will be working with an entirely brand-new face in 2026 – and for the first time in his career as the Bucs G.M. – if Bowles is fired.

FAB 5. Bucs Locker Room Was Quite Somber This Week

I often get asked by Bucs fans, “What’s the mood like in the Bucs locker room after a few losses?”

Given the fact that this team has suffered a four-game losing streak in each of the last three seasons I’ve had plenty of years to observe the vibe in the locker room under this condition. But what I’ve noticed is that the mood hasn’t really changed much from week to week and loss to loss in the past. Maybe I haven’t noticed subtle shifts – just like the frog in the pot on the stove top doesn’t notice that the heat is slowly being turned up.

But over the last two years the Bucs’ mood was basically unchanged as those four-game losing streaks that occurred in 2023 and 2024 happened at midseason. Despite the team’s record slumping below .500, there was still time left to go on a run, win the division and make the playoffs. And that’s exactly what happened with 9-8 and 10-7 records in those seasons.

There was no panic, and head coach Todd Bowles’ steady hand was recognized in helping to keep the team together for the end-of-season rallies that followed.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Sam Navarro

But this year it’s different.

I’ve been dealing with bronchitis at the end of this season, and I hadn’t been to the locker room for about three weeks – prior to the Saints game. The last thing I want to do if I’m sick is get any players or coaches sick, so I make a habit of staying home and covering the team remotely instead.

When I returned to the locker room this past week what I noticed was a definite mood swing. There were far fewer players in the locker room during the open media window. That’s not an uncommon occurrence when a team has a losing record at the end of the season. No player really feels like talking to the media, but I really haven’t felt this vibe since Koetter’s last year in 2018.

The players that were in the locker room were quite somber and lifeless. You wouldn’t know that the Bucs would be days away from playing for a potential NFC South title and a possible playoff berth.

There didn’t seem to be any resolve or energy in the locker room. No grit or determination. The look on the players’ faces was one of resignation – from being mentally beaten down by seven losses in the last eight games.

The Bucs locker room seemed like a waiting room for the season to end.

That’s not to say that the Bucs can’t find some energy prior to kickoff on Saturday afternoon, and it’s not to say that Tampa Bay can’t beat Carolina in Week 18. But when I pick the Panthers to beat the Bucs in Pewter Report’s Preview and Predictions column, you’ll know why.

By the way, I picked the Bucs to lose to the Falcons, Panthers and Dolphins in each of the last three weeks.

And I’m not necessarily happy that I’ve been right, either.