It all comes down to this… maybe. The 7-9 Bucs return to Raymond James Stadium Saturday afternoon to ring in 2026 with their latest must-win game, a rematch against the 8-8 Panthers with the NFC South title still up for grabs.

If Carolina comes to town and completes a season sweep of Tampa Bay, it’ll clinch the division at 9-8 and make the playoffs for the first time in a decade while ending the Bucs’ four-year reign atop the South. But if Todd Bowles and his team can rally to win the rematch between these two teams and then the Saints provide some help by beating the Falcons in Atlanta on Sunday, the reign continues and hits five years while the NFC’s longest active playoff streak remains in possession of the Buccaneers and hits six seasons.

There’s so much on the line for the Bucs in this one. As much damage as they’ve done to their playoff chances and as frustrating as it is that they’ve put themselves in a spot where they don’t have control of their own destiny heading into Week 18, they need to come together and pull off a win to at least give themselves a chance. More than the NFC South title and playoff appearance streak, jobs could be on the line here for many on the home sideline, coaches and players alike.

Not to mention, if the Bucs lose or this turns out to be the end of the line for them based on Sunday’s result in Atlanta, it could mean that this is the final game for two (maybe even three?) Buccaneer icons. One is for sure, as the longtime voice of the Bucs, Gene Deckerhoff, announced this week that he will retire at the end of the season. The other is speculative, but this very well could be the final time Lavonte David suits up in red, white and pewter. It could even be the final game for Mike Evans, though it does feel like there’s a better chance that he returns for Year 13 in 2026.

Now, let’s dive further into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in the Bucs’ regular season finale:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Panthers Matchup?

When they met the Panthers two weeks ago, the Bucs went with a run-heavy gameplan that didn’t pay off in a victory and was widely questioned and criticized afterward. Because despite having its full quartet of receivers healthy and good to go, Tampa Bay went in with a plan to run the ball 30 times and control the clock. All that ultimately did was limit the offense’s opportunities to score. So, have head coach Todd Bowles and offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard learned from that? Will they approach Saturday’s game differently, or will they be stubborn and simply try to run it back (no pun intended)? That’s the first factor to keep an eye on for the Buccaneer offense.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Josh Grizzard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Another significant factor in this contest will be the play of Baker Mayfield. If Bowles and Grizzard switch things up and trust Mayfield to air it out, can the veteran quarterback pay off that trust? If his recent run of play is anything to go off, the answer might be a resounding no. But if Tampa Bay wants to stop its losing ways and give itself a chance at the playoffs, Mayfield needs to rediscover some of the magic he brought in Weeks 1-6. You’d think having a healthy Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan would take the aerial attack to a new level, but that hasn’t been the case.

Now, there should be a balance that Grizzard can strike on offense. But when he does look to lean on the run game, is it still going to be Bucky Irving as the featured back? Because with the way things have gone lately, it probably shouldn’t be. Irving should still be a part of the ground game, sure, but he has been far less effective than Rachaad White and Sean Tucker have been in their limited carries. The way carries have been split among the backfield in recent weeks has been bizarre, and if that doesn’t change Saturday or if Irving doesn’t look like the guy he was as a rookie, it’s going to be tough sledding.

Defensively, it’s time to talk about the same exact key we’ve been talking about for months now. Can the Bucs get ANY pressure on the quarterback? One or two sacks spread out over 30ish dropbacks isn’t going to cut it. The pass rush needs to get consistent pressure on Bryce Young in this game. That’s not something Tampa Bay has proven capable of doing during this recent run of losing, but the likes of Yaya Diaby, Haason Reddick and Vita Vea need to bring something to the table in this contest. Getting Calijah Kancey back for the first time since he tore his pec in Week 2, even if he’s on a pitch count, could be a boost.

Panthers QB Bryce Young and Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: USA Today

There’s an extra bit of pressure on the pass rush for Tampa Bay’s defense this week, and Bowles may need to dial up some of his famed blitz packages to get to Young and keep him from picking apart what is a badly banged up secondary. Zyon McCollum is obviously still on injured reserve, plus Jamel Dean has been ruled out due to a shoulder injury. Rookies Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish, as well as veteran Kindle Vildor, will carry the responsibilities in this game with the Bucs down their top two cornerbacks. Dave Canales and his young quarterback (again, no pun intended) will look to take advantage of that.

And lastly on the Bucs’ side of things, remember how much better the defense was at taking the football away early on this season? Those takeaways have dried up in a big way lately. Bowles’ unit has failed to produce a takeaway in each of the last two games and hasn’t had a game with multiple since Week 13 against Arizona. That was the last game the Bucs won. Coincidence? Hardly. Tampa Bay is 5-2 this season when forcing opposing offenses into multiple turnovers. Maybe Lavonte David has one more in him in what could be the last game of his storied career?

For the Panthers, the first key on offense coincides with the key we just talked about for the Bucs defense. Bryce Young can’t afford to make mistakes in this game. He didn’t light the world on fire when the two teams matched up in Week 16, but he also took the throws that were there and didn’t make any mistakes. If he plays another clean game on Sunday, he’ll put Carolina in a really good position to win its first division title in a decade. If he turns the ball over and especially if he does so multiple times, that’s something this Panther offense may not be built to overcome.

With the Buccaneer secondary shorthanded, things set up nicely for rookie Tetairoa McMillan to have a big game and make one last case for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. The 2025 first-round pick caught six of his ten targets against the Bucs two weeks ago for 73 yards and a crucial touchdown just before halftime. He’ll be put in a spot to produce on Saturday, and if he comes through with a big game, Tampa Bay is likely toast. Of course, some help from his fellow receivers – especially given the state of the secondary they’re facing – would go a long way, too.

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan – Photo by: IMAGN – Jim Dedmon

As for the run game, that’s the Panthers’ bread and butter most of the time. But they failed to really get Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard going in the first meeting between the two sides. If they can’t get much out of the ground game yet again, it puts that much more pressure on Young, McMillan and the passing game to get the job done. Tampa Bay’s strength on defense – perhaps its only one – is stopping the run. We’ll see if either side gives on Saturday afternoon.

Meanwhile on the Carolina defense, the key could be as simple as picking off Baker Mayfield. Because Tampa Bay is 0-8 when Mayfield throws an interception this season and 7-1 when he doesn’t. That’s about as big of a disparity as you’ll find, and the fact is that Mayfield is on a bad run of turnovers right now with eight interceptions in eight games since the bye week, including at least one in each of the losses during this current four-game losing streak. Lathan Ransom got him two weeks ago, but Jaycee Horn (five) and Mike Jackson (four) are big takeaway threats.

The Panthers have to be wary of the fact that Mike Evans has a history of putting up some big games against them late in the season. In Week 18 of the 2021 season, he caught seven passes for 89 yards and two touchdowns against Carolina. On New Year’s Day 2023, he torched them for 207 yards and three touchdowns with the division on the line. And in Week 17 last year on this very field, he caught eight passes for 97 yards and another two touchdowns. Horn and the Panther defense can’t let No. 13 light them up again on his bobblehead day at Raymond James Stadium.

Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Jim Dedmon

Lastly, Carolina simply has to come into the game on Saturday and start fast, showing a killer instinct right from the jump. Canales and Co. will want to set the tone early and show that they want to take care of their own business right then and there rather than waiting on some help from the Falcons on Sunday. Look for a fast start from the visitors and if they get it, the Bucs might struggle to respond.

Key Players To Watch

We already discussed Mike Evans‘ dominance over the Panthers in late-season games, and while 2025 didn’t play out the way Evans hoped it would with his 1,000-yard streak ending due to injuries, he has a chance to end it on the right note by putting the offense on his shoulders against a team he’s plenty familiar with. In 22 games against Carolina, Evans has 123 catches for 1,726 yards and 15 touchdowns. And while no one wants to believe it’s possible, the fact is that Evans is 32 and currently isn’t under contract for 2026. You’d think he’ll be back, but just in case he isn’t, it’s worth taking the chance to appreciate No. 13 as much as possible.

This really could be the final game in the legendary career of Lavonte David. It’s hard to imagine a Buccaneer defense without No. 54 in the middle of it, as he has been a constant for Tampa Bay ever since he was drafted in the second round of the 2012 Draft. David spent the first eight years of his career missing the playoffs, and now that he’s experienced playoff football five years in a row, he surely won’t want to go out with a playoff-less season. So, expect the 35-year-old to do everything in his power to will the Bucs to a win and make sure they put themselves in the best spot possible heading into Sunday.

Panthers QB Bryce Young and HC Dave Canales – Photo by: USA Today

Saturday has the potential to be a massive day for Bryce Young. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 Draft was deemed a bust pretty quickly. He had a rough rookie season, then he got off to a bad start in 2024 in his first year with Dave Canales. But by the end of last year, Canales had Young playing some of his best football, and that carried over into 2025. Young hasn’t been perfect, but he’s thrown for 21 touchdowns to 10 interceptions and has his team in a spot where it could win its first division title since 2015. That’s significant for the third-year quarterback who is still only 24 years old.

Derrick Brown is a problem. The Bucs offensive line always has its work cut out for them when facing the 2020 first-round pick, who leads Carolina with five sacks this season. He’s a huge presence against the run, too, and as much as Tampa Bay might want to run the ball again on Saturday afternoon, Brown will be looking to lock down the threat of the three-headed monster in the Buccaneer backfield. The Bucs can’t let him wreak havoc in the backfield as a pass rusher or a run stopper if they want to be efficient on offense in this one.