Bucs general manager Jason Licht spoke to the media ahead of the NFL owner’s meetings in Arizona this week. Among the myriads of topics discussed, Licht was asked about a potential extension for star quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is entering the final year of his three-year, $100 million contract and is set to earn $40 million this year, tying him with Dak Prescott and Matt Stafford for the 10th most at their position.

The two sides spoke last offseason when Baker Mayfield was coming off of his best season as a pro, but they were unable to reach an agreement on an extension. Instead, the Bucs, with assistant general manager Mike Greenberg as the lead negotiator, agreed to guarantee a portion of his 2026 salary to give Mayfield some additional security without committing to additional years.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Sam Navarro

Last year Baker Mayfield and the offense as a whole struggled to deal with injuries to key offensive weapons and up-front blockers. As a result, his statistical production fell almost across the board. Furthermore, the Bucs backslid as a team, falling from 10-7 and a division title in 2024 to 8-9 while missing the playoffs altogether in 2025. This has left the team, and their quarterback at a crossroads.

Jason Licht On A Possible Baker Mayfield Extension

When asked where negotiations stood on a potential extension for Mayfield, Licht was both confident in an eventual deal while also non-committal on when it may happen.

“Baker is still our quarterback. He’s one of the toughest guys on the team. He’s a great leader. Everything kind of revolves around the quarterback spot. At some point, I’m sure we’ll figure something out. There’s no timetable on that.”

Licht has a longstanding policy of not discussing particulars or details of contract negotiations, and he wasn’t about to break that streak when discussing his signal-caller. When pressed a second time about Mayfield potentially holding out team activities and even training camp as part of a strategy to secure a new deal, the Bucs’ general manager was still effusive in his praise of the player while showing little concern for a prolonged standoff.

“We’ve had a lot of good conversations with Baker and his representatives. Like I said, that is always on our mind. Baker is a true professional. He’s a leader of this team. I have confidence that we’re going to be okay.”

And when he was asked if he thought Mayfield may want to play out 2026 without a new deal in place as a way to prove his baseline is more like 2024 than 2025, Licht once again made it clear what his thoughts are with regards to the former number one overall pick.

“Like I said, Baker’s a true pro, and Baker has never let us down. I’m not going to deal with hypotheticals here, but we love Baker.”

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

What Would A Possible Extension Look Like?

The $40 million salary this year works as the basement floor for a potential extension. That would move him from the 16th highest paid quarterback on an APY basis to tie Stafford for 14th. But earlier this offseason Daniel Jones, currently recovering from a torn Achilles, signed a two-year, $88 million extension with the Colts. Mayfield has been the better quarterback over the past several years, and no doubt his camp will be using the Jones deal as a low-end marker for what they would accept.

A better comp than Jones would be Kirk Cousins’ 2022 deal with the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins was coming off of a two-year stretch where he completed 67% of his passes for 8,486 yards and 68 touchdowns to just 20 interceptions while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. He also had 54 big time throws to 36 turnover-worthy plays per Pro Football Focus.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Jim Dedmon -IMAGN Images

Mayfield’s production since 2024 is very close to those marks. He’s completed 68% of his passes for 8,378 yards and 69 touchdowns to 27 interceptions while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. He’s also thrown 50 big time throws to 53 turnover-worthy plays (turnover-worthy plays include fumbles).

Mayfield has a few other factors helping to set him above Cousins in terms of valuation. Mayfield is 2.5 years younger than Cousins was at the time of his 2022 extension and he is a bigger rushing threat as evidenced by his 509 extra rushing yards and 23 additional explosive runs. Those factors should more than offset the discrepancy in turnover metrics.

Cousins’ extension, a one-year, $35 million deal had an APY that 16.81% of the salary cap that year. The equivalent in 2026 would be roughly $50.5 million. And that’s where I think Mayfield’s current value lies. And it could very well be how the Bucs view him and are basing their offer to him. But Baker’s side could be targeting a much higher comp – and for good reason.

Using that same two-year window leading up to a deal here is how Mayfield compares to a few other highly paid quarterbacks including the man currently sitting at the top of the market – Dak Prescott.

The cap-adjusted average of the three comparable quarterbacks’ deals puts Baker Mayfield right at Prescott’s $60 million APY. The regression model I use backs that up with a $60.65 million estimate using the two-year sample of data. If I were Baker’s agent this is exactly what I would be citing as the benchmark for him to become the highest paid quarterback in the NFL.

Could a compromise be had in the middle of this range? It would make sense. A $55 million APY would match a glut of current quarterback contracts that include Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jordan Love, and Trevor Lawrence. A true average of the two boundaries outlined above would be $55.5 million and allow Mayfield to claim contract supremacy over that lot as the second-highest paid signal-caller in the game.

The Real Problem

The biggest issue standing in the way of a potential extension may not be the down 2025 season or a hypothetical discrepancy in how Mayfield and the Bucs see his value. There’s a good chance it is the finances of the Bucs overall. Now to be clear, this is not a salary cap issue. Per Over The Cap, the Bucs currently have over $14 million in salary cap space and can easily create more with restructures of other players such as Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr. The Mayfield extension itself would likely lower his current $39,975,000 cap number.

Beyond the cap is the real governor for the Bucs’ roster speed. Cash. The team’s ownership group, just like every other team, sets a cash budget each year. The Glazers, outside of the Tom Brady years, have historically tied that budget to the salary cap. The Bucs’ cash spending for 2026 currently sits at just under $283 million and they still need money for their draft class, practice squad and in-season operating moves.

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

A four-year extension, even at the low end of these projections at $50 million per year would call for a raise in Mayfield’s 2026 compensation somewhere around $8 million. Unless the Glazers are approving an out-of-character increase in spending, there just isn’t room for this move at this time.

Clarity may come this summer. Perhaps the Glazers love Baker and are willing to approve a one-off. Perhaps the two sides still need to find a common ground. Jason Licht is one of the more honest general managers in the NFL. If he says the team has been in contact with Baker’s representatives, then there’s a good bet the framework for what each side sees as a reasonable extension has been shared. But that doesn’t mean anyone should hold their breath on a forthcoming deal.