r_type=”none” link=”” border_sizes_top=”” border_sizes_bottom=”” border_sizes_left=”” border_sizes_right=”” first=”true”]

SR’s FAB 5 column on the Bucs is presented by Gameday Men’s Health

Men – do you feel tired? Are you gaining weight despite working out… struggling with sleep, focus, or sexual performance? Did you know that 1 in 4 men over the age of 30 have low testosterone? And many men don’t even realize it – and I didn’t either, which is why I am on testosterone replacement therapy at age 53 and feel like I’m 10 years younger.

At Gameday Men’s Health, low testosterone is quickly diagnosed and treated. Gameday offers a FREE testosterone test and consultation – with results in minutes. Gameday specializes in testosterone replacement therapy, along with weight loss, ED treatments, and peptides — all designed to help optimize your health and performance.

With 6 Tampa Bay area locations in Westshore, South Tampa, Brandon, Palm Harbor, Largo, and Sarasota … getting started is EASY. Visit GamedayMensHealth.com today to schedule your FREE consultation. Feel better and get back in the game with Gameday Men’s Health!

INTRO: In last week’s SR’s FAB 5 I told you that I believe the Bucs are still the best and most talented team in the division. But as we’ve seen with the Bucs in 2022 and even with the Panthers last year, it’s possibly to win the lowly NFC South with eight wins and a losing record. Is it possible for Tampa Bay to rebound and get back to 10 wins – or more – in 2026? Yes, and I reveal what needs to happen for that to occur in this week’s SR’s FAB 5. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Can The Bucs Get Back To Double-Digit Wins In 2026?

We all know the Bucs have been the kings of Crap Hill for quite some time – up until last year.

Let’s face it, while competitive, the NFC South has been the worst division in the NFL from top to bottom for quite some time.

For proof of that, look no further than the division winner topping out at eight wins and finishing with a losing record in 2022 (Tampa Bay) and in 2025 (Carolina). In between those seasons, the Bucs won the NFC South win just nine wins in 2023 followed by 10 wins in 2024.

It’s rare that nine-win teams make noise in the playoffs and advance deep into the postseason. The two times Tampa Bay has won the Super Bowl it did so with a 12-4 record in 2002 and an 11-5 record in 2020. Seattle hoisted the Lombardi Trophy last year after finishing the regular season at 14-3.

So after last year’s injury-filled, underachieving hiccup, can the Bucs get back to their double-digit wins and achieve at least 10 wins as they did during the 2024 season?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I’m not going to expect any more than that because Todd Bowles has been a head coach for eight years in the league – four with the Jets and four with the Bucs – and he’s topped out at just 10 wins. With a 1-3 record in the postseason in Tampa Bay, Bowles has yet to prove he’s an elite head coach capable of fielding a truly dominant team that can make a deep playoff run.

We saw Liam Coen go across the state to the Jacksonville last year without taking any assistants with him and turn a 4-13 Jaguars team into a 13-4 division winner. And we saw Mike Macdonald go from 10-7 in his first season as head coach in Seattle to winning a Super Bowl with a 14-3 record last year – and doing so with newly acquired Sam Darnold at quarterback.

That’s elite coaching.

So until I see something different from Bowles, cap the Bucs’ win total at 10 for me. But can they rebound and win 10 games this year?

In last week’s SR’s FAB 5 column, I said the Bucs were the best team in the NFC South – and I still believe that. I think Tampa Bay has the most talented roster when healthy.

But that doesn’t mean that they’ll win the most games in 2026.

I’ve said it before – coaching matters. Everything from player development in the offseason and training camp, to game-planning and scheme in-season during the week, to play-calling and game management on gamedays.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and CBs coach Rashad Johnson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Does Bowles have what it takes in that area to have the Bucs break through a 10-win ceiling in Tampa Bay? And did he make the right assistant hires when constructing his 2026 coaching staff?

We’ll find out in a matter of months.

The Saints have one of the league’s easiest schedules based on teams’ records from a year ago, although the NFL schedule-makers didn’t do them any favors with New Orleans opening at Detroit and at Baltimore the first two weeks of the season. If Kellen Moore develops Tyler Shough into being the real deal at quarterback, and Brandon Staley’s defense continues to improve I think the Saints could actually be the biggest threat to the Bucs in the division rather than the Panthers.

Now that the 2026 schedule is out, I’m not going to make any win-loss predictions at this time. I always wait until after training camp and the preseason to see how healthy the Bucs are, and to see how the new additions have gelled with the mainstays on the roster.

After a 10-win campaign in 2024 I predicted an 11-win season last year. It looked like the Bucs were well on their way to achieving that with a 6-2 record heading into the bye. No one saw the 2-7 collapse coming, and last year’s home stretch of Arizona, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Miami and Carolina should have produced a far better record than 2-4 given those opponents’ rosters and records.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin Jr. – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Sam Navarro

If the Bucs couldn’t go 4-2 down the stretch last year, I’m hesitant to think they could put up a record like that against the likes of the Chargers, Ravens, Saints, Falcons, Rams and Saints in the final six games of the season this year – especially three of those games on the road. On paper right now, going 3-3 against that bunch almost seems like wishful thinking.

Tampa Bay’s schedule looks favorable at the beginning, starting at Cincinnati and then hosting Cleveland, Minnesota and Green Bay. Here’s the crazy thing – if the Bucs start 3-1 and even finish with a very mediocre 6-7 record the rest of the way, that gets them to 10 wins.

As long as they don’t bottom out down the stretch again.

And 10 wins should once again make Tampa Bay the king of Crap Hill.

In this week’s SR’s FAB 5, I’m going to give you my thoughts on Tampa Bay’s 2026 schedule, discuss the three key factors to the Bucs possibly getting back to double-digit wins this season, as well as what must happen at home for this team to truly contend for a Super Bowl.

Let’s tackle these topics.

FAB 2. Bucs Should Have A Favorable Start Again This Year

The NFL schedule makers made it as easy as possible for the Bucs to once again start the season hot.

While four-game losing streaks seem to be Todd Bowles’ kryptonite, his super-power is 2-0 starts. Tampa Bay has started the season 2-0 in each of the four years he’s been the team’s head coach, including an impressive 3-0 mark on the road in Week 1.

Cincinnati has gone 2-4 in season openers since drafting Joe Burrow in 2020, including a 1-2 mark at home during that span. After a road trip to face the Bengals to start the season, the Bucs return home for three straight games at Raymond James Stadium versus the Browns, Vikings and Packers.

The Browns defense should be potent, but who knows who will start at quarterback in Cleveland for new head coach Todd Monken.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The Vikings finished 9-8 last year, including five straight wins to the end the season. But is J.J. McCarthy the real deal after throwing 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions? Or will Kyler Murray be starting by the time Minnesota comes to Tampa Bay?

The Packers finished 9-7-1 last year, which was enough to get them in the playoffs. But Green Bay faded down the stretch with four straight losses to end the season after a 9-3-1 start, and then lost to the Bears at Chicago in the Wild Card round.

Anything less than 3-1 record to start the 2026 season would seem like a failure for Tampa Bay. And getting off to a good start will be critical because the Bucs’ schedule gets more challenging after the bye week, which is well-placed in Week 10.

Thankfully the Bucs don’t have any back-to-back road games this year for the first time in 35 years, and there are no travel challenges either, as the team faces both Los Angeles teams in Tampa Bay this year. The furthest trips will be two-and-a-half hour plane rides to Detroit and Dallas, which is as far west as the Bucs will head in 2026.

Somehow the Bucs dodged an international game overseas, as well as a possible Christmas or Thanksgiving games – especially as the team has road games at both Detroit and Dallas this year. Generally, speaking this is a favorable schedule – as long as the Bucs don’t crash and burn down the stretch after the bye week this year.

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs and Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. Photo by: USA Today

Having the bye week to prepare for a road trip to see the Lions in Week 11 hopefully helps, as Detroit has had Tampa Bay’s number in recent years. Then it’s a big Monday Night Football game at home against the Panthers, followed by another home game versus the Chargers.

After that it’s two challenging foes – the Ravens and the Rams – mixed in with a game at Atlanta and two games against the Saints, including the season finale at New Orleans.

That seems a bit perilous, but if the Bucs are actually going to rise up and get back to double-digit wins this year, they’re going to have to beat some good teams along the way. Just as they did in 2024 when they beat Washington in Week 1, won at Detroit in Week 2 and then beat Philadelphia, the eventual Super Bowl champion, in Week 4.

Tampa Bay has proven it can be formidable early in the season. Look no further than winning at Seattle in Week 5 and beating San Francisco in Week 6 last year.

But can Bowles’ Buccaneers finish? That remains to be seen.

FAB 3. 3 Buccaneers Who Must Step Up To Get This Team To 10 Wins

General manager Jason Licht and the team’s personnel department have done a good job of bolstering the Bucs’ depth at several key positions and raising the floor of the talent on the roster this offseason.

At first glance, head coach Todd Bowles seems to have really upgraded the coaching staff with several new assistants and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and new special teams coordinator Danny Smith.

The Bucs have a more talented roster in 2026 than they did a year ago – even with the departure of 32-year old receiver Mike Evans and the retirement of 36-year old linebacker Lavonte David. And it’s fair to say that Tampa Bay’s roster is even more talented than it was in 2024 when the team went 10-7 and last won the NFC South.

Rueben Bain Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson, Ted Hurst, Al-Quadin Muhammad, A’Shawn Robinson, Alex Anzalone, Kenneth Gainwell and David Walker weren’t on that 2024 team.

Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

While the upgrade talent is important, along with the Bucs hopefully being healthier this year (cross your fingers), rebounding from eight wins back to 10 will largely fall on the shoulders of three men in Tampa Bay.

Bowles, Robinson and quarterback Baker Mayfield. The seasons that trio puts forth will go a long way in determining how Tampa Bay fares in 2026.

Simply put:

• Robinson’s offense must be as good as Liam Coen’s was in 2024.
• Mayfield needs to play at a very high level as he did that season.
• Bowles’ defense must play better than it did in 2024.

If those three things happen the Bucs should hit double-digit wins and recapture the NFC South title.

For Robinson, whose best friend is Coen, he needs to shift the Bucs’ ground game into overdrive like Coen was able to in 2024 when Bucky Irving ran for over 1,000 yards and scored eight touchdowns as a rookie. Look for Robinson to diversify the rushing attack and introduce more wide zone concepts to mix in with gap-duo runs to make the Bucs’ run game less predictable.

Former Bucs OC Liam Coen, QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Not only did Tampa Bay have a top 5 rushing attack under Coen in 2024, it also had a top 5 scoring offense, averaging 29 points per game. Robinson has a better offensive line and better receiving corps than he did in Atlanta, as well as a better quarterback to work with.

Mayfield was a big part of the offense generating 29 points per game two seasons ago. Granted he was tied for the league lead in interceptions with 16, but Mayfield also threw a career-high 41 touchdowns, which was the second-most in franchise history.

Just as important, Mayfield was super accurate, completing a franchise-record 71.4% of his passes in 2024. That level of accuracy kept the chains moving on third downs. Instead of drives stalling out for field goals in or near the red zone, the Bucs had more touchdowns because Mayfield was more prolific in 2024.

As for Bowles, he doesn’t have to break in a rookie play-caller this year like he had to with Dave Canales in 2023, Coen in 2024 and Josh Grizzard last year. He can just focus on being the team’s defensive play-caller and that’s where his attention needs to be.

Bowles’ defense has been underwhelming since 2023 when Tampa Bay had a top 5 scoring unit, allowing just 19.2 points per game. The Bucs slipped to 17th in scoring defense in 2024 (22.7 ppg) and ranked 20th last year (24.2 ppg).

The Bucs overhauled their defensive front this offseason, and that should help stop the run and rush the passer better this year. Bowles has shown he can dial up some defensive masterpieces in recent years. The 32-9 win over the Eagles in the Wild Card game in 2023 and the 20-16 Week 2 win at Detroit in 2024 are recent examples of that.

Lions HC Dan Campbell and Bucs HC Todd Bowles- Photo by: USA Today

But more talent on the defensive side of the ball this year, Bowles needs to come through with three or four epic games where his defense dominates. And Robinson needs to have three or four dominant play-call outings like Coen had in 2024 with the 37-20 win over the Commanders, the 33-16 win over the Eagles, the 51-27 demolition of the Saints and the 40-17 annihilation of the Chargers.

Fantastic coaching, schemes and play-calling need to account for at least six wins this year. Mayfield needs to have a few masterful games with multiple touchdowns to help Robinson achieve that on offense.

And then the Bucs’ on-field talent, toughness and grit by Mayfield and the rest of the team needs to come through and win three to four hard-fought games like the team did last year versus the likes of playoff teams, such as the Texans, Seahawks and 49ers.

That’s what has to happen for the Bucs to get back to being a really good team like the 2024 squad that won 10 games and posted seven wins by 13 points or more that year.

FAB 4. Can The Bucs Defend The Bay?

Another equation in the Bucs’ attempt to rebound in 2026 and get back to double-digit wins is how well this team defends the home turf at Raymond James Stadium.

“Defend The Bay” was a marketing slogan from yesteryear – I forget which season. But that needs to be the mindset for Todd Bowles and his Buccaneers in 2026.

Under the Bowles the Bucs have not had a homefield advantage whatsoever. Tampa Bay has been very mediocre at home.

The Bucs were 4-4 at home last year, as well as during the 2023 season. The best home record that Tampa Bay has had under Bowles came in 2024 when the team went 5-4 at Raymond James Stadium en route to a 10-7 record.

Technically the Bucs went 5-4 at home during Bowles’ first year when the team finished 8-9, but one of those wins came in Munich, Germany. Tampa Bay was 4-4 at Ray-Jay that year, which was Tom Brady’s final season in the NFL.

The Bucs have six games against five teams who made the playoffs last year, including NFC South division-winner Carolina, whom Tampa Bay plays twice. Green Bay, Pittsburgh, the Los Angeles Chargers and the L.A. Rams are the other four teams.

The good news is that five out of those six games are at home.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I think that’s good news.

But it’s really up to this team to make a stand at home and send the season ticket holders home happy with more wins than losses.

If the Bucs want to get back to 10 wins in 2026, winning a majority of the home games is paramount – just like they did in 2024. But if Tampa Bay has designs on something greater than a 10-win season, Ray-Jay must become a place where opponents come to lose.

Jon Gruden’s 2002 Super Bowl squad went 12-4 and posted a 6-2 record at home. Bruce Arians, Brady and the Bucs went 5-3 at home in 2020 on their way to winning the second Super Bowl in franchise history. The next year, Tampa Bay won 13 games, the most in team history, and finished with a franchise-best 7-1 home record.

For the Bucs to win at least 10 games this year, it feels like they need to win at least six out of their nine games at home and then go 4-4 on the road.

FAB 5. SR’s Buc Shots

• Speaking of home records, the Bucs have never gone undefeated at home in any of their 50 seasons. The best home record was 7-1, which came during the 13-4 season in 2021. And it’s crazy to think that their lone home loss at Raymond James Stadium came at the hands of the Saints in a 9-0 defeat.

With Taysom Hill at quarterback.

That’s right – Taysom Hill, who completed 13-of-27 passes (48.1%) for 154 yards and ran 11 times for just 33 yards. The Bucs outgained the Saints, 302-212 yards, but lost the turnover battle 2-0 on December 19.

Bucs NT Vita Vea and Saints QB Taysom Hill – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tom Brady was sacked four times and fumbled, and the Saints defense gave Chris Godwin Jr. a season-ending knee injury and knocked Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette out of the game by the third quarter with injuries. Despite playing well defensively and holding the Saints to just three field goals, the Bucs lost their only regular season home game that year in such weird and brutal fashion.

• Tampa Bay’s pass rush better be humming in Week 1 as the team kicks off the 2026 season at Cincinnati against quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals have one of the more dangerous duos at wide receiver in Pro Bowler Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Chase had 125 catches for 1,412 yards and eight touchdowns last year, while Higgins caught 59 passes for 846 yards and 11 scores.

Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase and former Bucs CB Carlton Davis III – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs will either be starting Jacob Parrish or Benjamin Morrison – both second-year players – opposite Zyon McCollum. And Tampa Bay could have rookie Keionte Scott playing in the slot as the team’s nickelback.

Rueben Bain Jr. and Co. better be ready to dominate in Week 1. Cincinnati’s tackles, Orlando Brown Jr. and Amarius Mims, combined to allow 13 sacks last season.

• Want to find out who stood out in last week’s Bucs rookie mini-camp? Find out in my latest Pewter Pulse video: Bucs Rookie Mini-Camp Standouts And Stars

Check Out Zyon McCollum And Jason Licht On The Pewter Report Podcast

Pewter Report had a pair of Buccaneers on this week’s Pewter Report Podcast. On Monday, cornerback Zyon McCollum joined the show, and on Wednesday we had nearly an hour with general manager Jason Licht to discuss the team’s draft class, undrafted free agents and get his thoughts on Tampa Bay’s 2026 roster.

Check out those videos on our PewterReportTV YouTube channel this weekend if you missed them.