It’s the dog days of summer and the only thing holding us together until meaningful Bucs football restarts in the fall is a cheesy game of Bingo. It’s times like these that hot takes tend to fill up the X timeline.

One such take making the rounds right now is from ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky, who just went on the record saying the Bucs are an NFC Championship contender.

“On paper, I think the Bucs are NFC Championship contenders. I really, really, really do. I think, offensively, very good offensive line. Very good skill players. Baker is the best quarterback in the division.” 

He continued with the other side of the ball.

“They’ve invested into this defensive line. And I know they weren’t great last year. I know Vita Vea is a little bit older, but they have put money and picks into this defensive line. And if Rueben Bain is who a lot of people going into the draft thought he was, and obviously Tampa thought he was, then this defensive line should be reminiscent of the ones that we’ve become accustomed to in Tampa.” 

Show Me Where Dan Orlovsky Is Wrong About The Bucs

Read through those quotes again.

Where did Dan Orlovsky tell a lie? At what point is his analysis off?

Saints quarterback Tyler Shough looked good at the end of last year and Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has shown flashes. Neither has a strong claim to be the best QB in the NFC South. That title is firmly held by one Baker Mayfield. And with improved health around him restoring his confidence I see no reason to believe he will be relinquishing that title any time soon.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Nathan Ray Seebeck

Tampa Bay does have good skill players. When healthy, Bucky Irving proved to be one of the most elusive backs in the NFL. In 2024 he ranked fifth in the NFL among all qualified running backs in rushing yards over expected per attempt and second in yards after contact per attempt.

The Bucs just paired him with one of the more dynamic complementary backs in the NFL in Kenneth Gainwell.

At receiver, Tampa Bay features one of the deeper rooms in the league. They no longer have the bona fide No. 1 of yesteryear with Mike Evans, so the top of the room is blunted. But the drop-off from No. 1 to No. 3 is as smooth as any room in the league and still provides plenty of potential and upside in Ted Hurst, Jalen McMillan and of course, Emeka Egbuka working alongside Chris Godwin Jr.

The tight end room isn’t a top-tier receiving corps, but it’s enabling the rest of the roster at the top with Cade Otton. Everything is on the menu. This skill group is very close to the same group that put up 29.5 points per game in 2024, which was good for fourth in the NFL that year.

Orlovsky also pointed out the talent on the offensive line. Once again he is right. The Bucs’ bookends at tackle of All-Pro Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke are as good as any twosome in the NFL right now. The Chargers, Bucs and Eagles set the standard. Inside those two you have an ascending center in Graham Barton and an extremely talented guard Cody Mauch returning from injury. They say an offensive line is only as good as its weakest link. 

Bucs LG Ben Bredeson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Well 25 teams in the league have a weaker weakest link than Ben Bredeson. This is the exact same unit that was playing at the best level in the league down the stretch in 2024. There is no reason they cannot return to that level in 2026.

Orlovsky hit the nail on the head with his analysis of the defensive line. Any drop off from Vita Vea could be counterbalanced by additional play time from Calijah Kancey this year. And I truly believe Rueben Bain Jr. can be a force multiplier whose effect will go well beyond his own box score. His impact will create pressure, sacks and turnovers for his teammates. The Bucs defense has improved in a meaningful way.

The pieces are all there for a very successful 2026 season.

What Dan Orlovsky Left Out About Tampa Bay

Now, there is a caveat. It’s not about what Dan Orlovsky said. It’s more about what he didn’t say. There was a failure to address coaching. Now, I am on record as a Todd Bowles believer. But there is a more than fair argument against him. And poor coaching can take a good roster with ease, just as great coaching can elevate a mediocre roster (see the 49ers circa 2025).

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Does Orlovsky believe in Bowles, and by extension new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson? My assumption is yes based on his claim. But it would have been interesting to hear his thoughts on that particular piece of the puzzle.

It’s a make-or-break season for Bowles. The ingredients are there.

Let’s see what kind of dish he serves.