Baker Mayfield made some headline-grabbing comments this past week while hosting his youth sports camp. When asked about how contract negotiations between he and the Bucs were progressing, Mayfield answered that the Buccaneers “are not anywhere close to what we were thinking,” before saying that his side was imposing training camp as the deadline for getting a deal done before halting negotiations until after the season.

While Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht has consistently maintained there is plenty of time for a deal to come to fruition, from Mayfield’s perspective time is ticking and the two sides seem to calculate his value quite differently.

Tampa Bay Times reporter Rick Stroud provided some further light on how involved negotiations are over the weekend. Responding to a comment that said Mayfield’s side was looking for $65 million a year, Stroud said, “Neither Baker Mayfield nor his agent has asked for $65 million per year. In fact, after the Buccaneers initial proposal, they haven’t made a counter offer. That might tell you something.”

Neither Baker Mayfield nor his agent has asked for $65 million per year. In fact, after the Bucs initial proposal, they haven’t made a counter offer. That might tell you something. https://t.co/xHZHqS4AsK

— Rick Stroud (@NFLSTROUD) June 6, 2026

None of This Should be Surprising

Now I rarely aim to be the first take on these types of things. But I do aim to be the best take.

And I, and by extension you, saw this coming.

The timeliness of all of this shouldn’t be lost on anyone. It was less than two weeks ago that the Pewter Report Podcast reviewed potential 2026 extensions for the Bucs and we started with Mayfield. Our analysis forecast suggested the negotiations would start far apart.

With NFL negotiations paralleling real estate in terms of both sides trading “comps”, the truth is that the quarterback market right now is in flux and open to plenty of interpretation. And the Buccaneers and Mayfield are going to interpret his value very differently with their opening salvos.

The Bucs’ Likely Opening Offer

Baker Mayfield’s 2023-2025 production has two comps the Buccaneers are probably anchoring him to. The first is Geno Smith’s 2022-2024 run that led to him signing a two-year, $75 million deal with the Raiders. The second is Derek Carr’s run from 2020 to 2022, that predated his 2023 deal with the Saints for four years and $150 million.

Baker Mayfield (2023-2025) – 1,949 dropbacks, 66.5% completion rate, 97-37 TD-INT, 12,423 yards, 7.32 yds/att, 75-77 BTT-TWP
Geno Smith (2022-2024) – 1,857 dropbacks, 68.5% completion rate, 71-35 TD-INT, 12,226 yards, 7.41 yds/att, 94-69 BTT-TWP
Derek Carr (2020-2022) – 1,796 dropbacks, 65.7% completion rate, 74-37 TD-INT, 12,429 yards, 7.56 yds/att, 97-62 BTT-TWP

Both of those deals were for $37.5 million per year. But cap adjustments are required to balance for the $301.2 million salary cap in 2026. The average of Carr and Smith’s APY’s, adjusted for 2026’s salary cap, is about $45 million per year. That would be a 35% increase over the APY of Mayfield’s last deal and a 12.5% premium on his $40 million salary this year.

Bucs co-chairman Bryan Glazer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

What Baker Mayfield May Be Looking For

Baker Mayfield’s camp will find their own comps to build a different value case. Based on his comment that his side was nowhere close to the offer the Buccaneers presented, I wouldn’t be surprised if these were the players they provided.

Josh Allen (2022-2024) – 1,886 dropbacks, 64.7% completion rate, 94-38 TD-INT, 12,592 yards, 7.61 yds/att, 120-65 BTT-TWP
Trevor Lawrence (2021-2023) – 1,950 dropbacks, 63.8% completion rate, 58-39 TD-INT, 11,771 yards, 6.73 yds/att, 85-72 BTT-TWP

The cap adjusted average of these two deals comes to a bit over $60 million, which is what I believe his opening ask might be. As of two days ago that would have tied him with Dak Prescott for the highest paid quarterback in the league. Now with Patrick Mahomes’ extension, a $60 million APY (average per year) ask is $4 million per year below the high water mark for the market.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Nathan Ray Seebeck

The Diamond Rio of it All

Two sides. Two valuations of the same player based on similarly profiled quarterbacks.

The Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield are currently far apart on how they see his next contract. That’s okay.

It’s expected. 

But as they trade offers each will start walking in the direction of the other. And they’ll meet in the middle.

When that happens is the bigger question.

Mayfield wants to get things done before training camp or wait until after the season.

I think the latter is the more likely scenario, but we’ll see.