Seven days after sinking to 0-2 for the first time since 2014, the Bucs will be back at Raymond James Stadium this Sunday to host the 2-0 Vikings. The last time Tampa Bay was 0-2 — some 12 years ago — it lost 56-14 in a Thursday Night Football game at Atlanta to fall to 0-3. This time around, Todd Bowles and Co. will be looking to avoid that type of disastrous effort and attempt to avoid an 0-3 start altogether.

It won’t be an easy task for the Bucs, as they’re not exactly clicking on either side of the ball through the first two weeks of the season. Not only that, but the Vikings are off to an impressive 2-0 start with a 39-22 win over the Packers and a 9-3 victory in Chicago over a Bears team that had scored 59 points the previous week.

This doesn’t look like a particularly favorable matchup for Tampa Bay, though an optimist’s point of view could be that this team has underachieved thus far while Minnesota has somewhat overachieved. Perhaps there’s some regression to the mean in order for both teams come Sunday?

The Bucs badly need that to be the case, and not just to avoid falling to 0-3 and dropping even further behind in the NFC South. Getting in the win column would be huge ahead of a stretch of two games in five days, first with the Packers in town for Week 4 and then with a Thursday night road game against the Cowboys in Week 5. Taking care of business in Week 3 and stopping the bleeding, so to speak, is paramount for Bowles and his team.

After offering a general preview Thursday, let’s dive into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in Tampa Bay’s Week 3 game at Ray Jay.

What Might Decide This Bucs-Vikings Matchup?

The biggest talking point this week and what could be the ultimate decider of this matchup is whether Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense can handle the blitz-heavy Vikings defense, led by defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Flores’ unit is blitzing at an even more insane clip than normal through the first two weeks of the season, bringing extra pressure on more than 70% of snaps. That’s going to be a challenge for Mayfield, who has played at a frantic pace far too often to start this 2026 season.

Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will have to put his quarterback in position to beat the exotic pressures Flores sends his way. Whether Robinson is up to that task and comes in with an effective approach — and whether Mayfield can stay within himself and execute — will determine whether Tampa Bay even has a chance in this game.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Robinson can help Mayfield and his offense both against the blitz and in general by scheming the likes of Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka open in the short-to-intermediate game. If the quick throws are there for Mayfield — and not just in the screen game featuring Bucky Irving, Kenny Gainwell and Cade Otton at or behind the line of scrimmage — it could neutralize Minnesota’s pressures and create opportunities for yards after catch.

Early involvement from Godwin and Egbuka — and even rookie Ted Hurst III — would be nice, too. Godwin and Egbuka both got touches on end-arounds on Tampa Bay’s first drive in Week 2, but they weren’t involved at all the rest of the half. Hurst got two targets in the early going before his 21-yard catch for a third-down conversion, one of which was overthrown and the other being a poorly thrown ball by Mayfield that was intercepted. The rest of the half saw Godwin get one target (which was caught but negated by a penalty) and Egbuka get just one.

That’s unacceptable, and it can’t happen against the Vikings. Robinson has to get the ball to his playmaking receivers early and often, on the one hand, but it’s also on Mayfield to see the open looks he’s getting and get the ball out to his guys. He’s flat-out not seeing open receivers far too frequently right now, and it’s proven costly in games the Bucs have lost by six and four points, respectively.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

As for the deciding factor on defense? Perhaps the scary thing is that a lot of it comes down to whether Todd Bowles can make the proper adjustments. The book is out on how to beat this defense right now. Cincinnati and Cleveland neutralized Tampa Bay’s pass rush, took the easy completions and picked the unit apart. Bowles has to take those easy passes away, even if that means breaking his tendencies and running more man coverage than zone. Opposing quarterbacks are far too comfortable right now when it comes to poking holes in the zone, and it’s leaving the pass rush in a spot where it’s making next to no impact.

Joe Burrow was comfortable in Week 1, going 25-of-35 without really having to thread in too many low-percentage throws. Deshaun Watson had it easy last week, too, going 24-of-30 and facing very little resistance. At the same time, the front four needs to step it up in Week 3. On the rare occasion that the pass rush is affecting the quarterback, the escape routes are open and defenders are failing to plug them. Burrow and Watson were both able to move the pocket and complete those aforementioned easy throws. The Bucs have to shut down Kyler Murray‘s ability to move and make out-of-structure throws in this Sunday’s game.

One other factor that could unfortunately play a role in this Week 3 contest on the Bucs’ side of things is health. Can they work Jalen McMillan into the offense for more than seven snaps this week? That could unlock some things for Robinson, Mayfield and the offensive unit. Are rookies Rueben Bain Jr. and Josiah Trotter in danger of missing the game? If so, Tampa Bay has the depth to account for losing Bain. But can Christian Rozeboom or SirVocea Dennis play well enough in Trotter’s absence? And can Alex Anzalone turn things around in just a week while also potentially playing next to someone other than Trotter?

Sep 13, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray (1) runs the ball against the Green Bay Packers during the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

On Minnesota’s side, getting Murray back to quarterback the offense is key. Carson Wentz stepped in admirably to lead the Vikings to a win over the Packers in Week 1 after Murray left with a concussion after only 11 snaps, but the veteran was just 11-of-20 for 143 yards and was sacked three times in last week’s nine-point effort at Chicago. Murray is mobile, and he can make plays out of structure with the best of them. If he can take free yards when they’re there but also keep his eyes downfield and connect on the open throws, it’ll have Kevin O’Connell‘s offense in a good spot.

Justin Jefferson is always a threat, and the Bucs are going to have to do their best to limit him the way they did Ja’Marr Chase, his former LSU teammate, in Week 1 at Cincinnati. Tampa Bay’s defense did a good job against him in 2020, limiting him to four catches on eight targets for 39 yards. He caught nine of his 12 targets for 150 yards when the two teams met in 2023, but he was held out of the end zone. If he can rack up yards at that clip and score a time or two in this game, it’ll be difficult for Tampa Bay to emerge victorious over Minnesota.

The second-leading receiver behind Jefferson through the first two weeks has been tight end T.J. Hockenson. That’s a scary thought if you’re the Bucs because, contrary to what Todd Bowles wants to say, this defense does have issues dealing with opposing tight ends. What else would you call allowing the third-most touchdowns (12) to tight ends last year, one year after allowing the second-most yards (1,144) to opposing tight ends? Hockenson could be in for a big day on Sunday. If he continues to exploit Tampa Bay’s poor coverage (and poor tackling), it’ll be hard for the home team to recover.

Vikings TE TJ Hockenson – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

As for the Vikings defense, the objective is ultimately to do more of the same this week. Brian Flores‘ defense will be looking to keep Baker Mayfield‘s feet happy, as that will force him into mistakes. Getting home on blitzes will obviously rattle the Buccaneer quarterback and keep him off schedule, for one. But if Flores’ unit can get to him early, the threat of pressure may very well do the rest throughout the day. After all, Mayfield is his own worst enemy sometimes in terms of creating his own pressure, bailing on clean pockets and trying to force throws. If the Vikings can bring those damaging tendencies out of him, it might be the difference.

Key Players To Watch

Chris Godwin Jr. has to be more of a factor in this offense, and it’s honestly more on offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and quarterback Baker Mayfield to make sure that’s the case. The 10th-year receiver has caught all seven of his targets this season for 86 yards, with 52 of those yards coming after the catch. He’s looked more like the Godwin of old so far this year, but the problem is that he has only seven targets over two games. He was the engine of Liam Coen’s offense in 2024. He looks primed to play that role again for Robinson, and that needs to be something Tampa Bay taps into this Sunday.

With Justin Jefferson being such a focal point of the Minnesota offense, Zyon McCollum will have to be up to the task for the Buccaneer defense throughout Sunday’s game. McCollum allowed two receptions on four targets for 30 yards in Week 1 and had two pass breakups while playing a big role in Tampa Bay holding Ja’Marr Chase to two catches for 12 yards. He was less effective in coverage last week, allowing completions on all five of his targets, though they only went for 35 yards. He’ll need a big game this week as the Bucs look to contain Jefferson.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson and Bucs CB Carlton Davis II – Photo by: USA Today

Jefferson, or “Jettas,” is off to a phenomenal start this season, so he remains the focus here. He has 11 catches on 15 targets for 147 yards (13.4 avg.) and two touchdowns through two games, and that production largely came with a backup quarterback under center. He’ll have Kyler Murray back this week, and he’ll be a threat to take over this contest considering the coverage breakdowns Tampa Bay’s defense can be known to suffer from.

As much as the blitzes have been the story for the Minnesota defense, don’t lose sight of just how productive the front has been. Veteran Andrew Van Ginkel has 2.5 sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and nine total pressures through two games, which is impressive on its own. But Dallas Turner, a 2024 first-round pick who broke out with eight sacks last year, already has three sacks in 2026 and 20 (!!!!) total pressures through two weeks. Fresh off a dominant performance against Jared Verse in Week 2, Tristan Wirfs will have to be at his best again. Luke Goedeke will see him, too, and he’ll need to be up to the task.