It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Pt Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

The Bucs went from bad to worse in Week 3 due to a 23-16 loss at home at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. That dropped Tampa Bay to 0-3 on the season due to an inept offensive performance and surrendering an 86-yard punt return for a touchdown to Myles Price.

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield suffered a dislocated thumb on his right hand (throwing hand) that will cause the team’s $55 million man to miss at least three weeks of action. Undrafted rookie free agent Jalon Daniels will take over at quarterback for the time being.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. 0-3 Bucs, Baker Mayfield Get A Thumbs Down

This is getting ugly. After last week’s inexcusable loss to what we thought was a bad Browns team (they’re now 2-1 after beating the Panthers at home on Sunday), Tampa Bay was pretty much facing a must-win game on Sunday against a 2-0 Minnesota team that was starting Kyler Murray at quarterback. While Todd Bowles’ defense played well versus the Vikings, allowing just 16 points, cornerback Jacob Parrish fell down on Jordan Addison’s 41-yard touchdown catch on third down and that proved to be costly in the end.

But the real story was Tampa Bay’s offense, which was pitiful on third down, setting a franchise record for ineptitude by converting just 2-of-17 (11.8%) on Sunday. Baker Mayfield was sacked six times by Minnesota’s blitzes and pressures, and Tampa Bay’s offensive line was a penalty machine, getting flagged for four holding calls. The worst of which was by right tackle Luke Goedeke, which negated an 85-yard touchdown pass from Mayfield to Chris Godwin Jr. in the third quarter.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Zac Robinson’s offense looks like it’s regressing each week. The wide receivers, which were supposed to be the strength of this team, are getting ignored. Tight end Cade Otton (six) and running backs Kenny Gainwell (five) and Bucky Irving (four) combined for 15 targets. Meanwhile, the top receivers Emeka Egbuka (nine), Godwin (four), Ted Hurst III (three) combined for just 16 targets. Hurst had a 40-yard touchdown in the first quarter, but then only saw two more passes go in his direction the entire game. What’s going on here?

Jalen McMillan was targeted once, but then left the game after he hurt his knee on his lone target.

Robinson’s offensive game plan looks disjointed, and Brian Flores’ aggressive defense stymied Tampa Bay’s ground game, holding the Bucs to just 57 yards on 21 carries (2.7 avg.). The Bucs offensive line got bullied in the trenches on run downs and pass downs and Mayfield was forced to pass the ball 34 times, completing just 17 of his throws for 217 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Bowles looked lost and confused after Sunday’s loss, especially after he watched his quarterback injure his right thumb – Mayfield is right-handed – in the last two minutes of the game. Now he is charged with trying to find answers without his star quarterback over the next three weeks before this season slips away for good. Bowles doesn’t look like he has those answers.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The saving grace for Bowles and the Bucs has been the terrible play across the entire NFC South. The Panthers, Saints and Falcons are all just 1-2 after three weeks, so Bowles is right in saying that despite the 0-3 record his team is only one game out of first place in the division. But in order to climb out of the hole they’re in, the Bucs are going to have to stop digging and start winning.

That could prove to be very problematic for the Buccaneers without Mayfield – even though their franchise quarterback hasn’t played well with just two touchdowns and two interceptions during the team’s 0-3 start. Signing Mayfield to an early contract extension is looking like a mistake in hindsight.

So far, it’s a big thumbs down for Mayfield, Bowles and the Bucs through three games. We’ll see what is in store for Tampa Bay next week against 1-2 Green Bay with rookie Jalon Daniels under center replacing Mayfield.

STATEMENT 2. Bucs Have The No. 1 Overall Draft Pick – As Of Right Now

While many, including yours truly, expected a revamped Tampa Bay roster to help get this team off to its usual hot start – maybe 3-0 or 2-1 – it’s been the exact opposite. Todd Bowles and Co. are 0-3 instead, and the Bucs currently have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. The Texans, Titans, Chargers and Dolphins are the only other teams without a single win this season.

That’s not a good sign for Bowles, who entered 2026 on the hot seat after a 2-7 finish a year ago. Now his seat is even hotter with just two wins and 10 losses in the last 12 games dating back to last year. Those two wins were a 20-17 win over the Cardinals and a 16-14 win over the Panthers – both at home – and look even less impressive now.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Despite retooling its roster this offseason, especially on defense, Tampa Bay can’t figure out how to win close games under Bowles. The fact that this franchise has gone from 10 wins in 2024 to eight wins last year to a 0-3 start this year is a clear indicator that the Bucs are moving in the wrong direction with him at the helm. If Tampa Bay does wind up with the No. 1 overall pick next year – or even a top 10 pick – it would certainly be with a new head coach on draft day making that selection.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The real interesting question would be whether or not that top selection would be used on a new quarterback despite the fact that Baker Mayfield just signed a $165 million contract extension with $120 million in guarantees. Hey, the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a $180 million deal in free agency in 2024 and still spent a top 10 pick on quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

While getting a top weapon like Ohio State game-breaker Jeremiah Smith could be the big-play receiver that could unlock Tampa Bay’s offense – never say never.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. What If Jalon Daniels Plays Well And The Bucs Win?

That would be a great problem to have at One Buc Place, right? Yes, there would be some pressure to reinsert Baker Mayfield as the starting quarterback, especially given his $55 million-per year price tag. But this team is desperate for wins after going 2-10 in its last 12 games, and if somehow Jalon Daniels played really well and delivered two or three wins over the next three games the rookie quarterback would have to stay in the lineup, right?

Right?

Bucs QB Jalon Daniels – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Bucs fans who aren’t necessarily Baker Mayfield fans are getting their wish – they’re getting an early limited viewing of Daniels to see what type of promise he has. It’s a double-edged sword for the franchise, which needs to win games right now, but ideally doesn’t want Daniels to look too good doing it. Because that would make the team look foolish for extending Mayfield’s contract before his contract year instead of letting it play out.

And it would create quite the conundrum for head coach Todd Bowles about when to play Mayfield again. If Mayfield gets reinserted into the lineup and the Bucs lose, fans would lose their minds and chaos could ensue over a sudden quarterback controversy no one saw coming in 2027. It will be interesting to see how Daniels fares under center over the next three weeks and what happens after that.

I’m looking at Daniels with high deal of curiosity and anticipation and very low expectations. And I would suggest you do the same.

QUESTION 2. Did The Bucs Defense Show Some Improvement vs. The Vikings?

Yes, the Bucs defense did improve somewhat versus the Vikings – to a degree. Inside linebacker Alex Anzalone had his best game of the year with five tackles, a tackle for loss and his first sack as a Buccaneer. Outside linebacker David Walker got more playing time with Rueben Bain Jr. out with a groin injury and recorded his second sack in as many weeks, finishing with two tackles for loss. And defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson continued to make plays with three tackles, a pass breakup and an interception, while Vita Vea showed some signs of life with four tackles and two pass breakups.

Bucs DT A’Shawn Robinson – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Todd Bowles’ defense, which was also without star rookie inside linebacker Josiah Trotter due to a shoulder injury, recorded three sacks and held Minnesota to just 2-of-15 (13.3%) on third down as the Vikings gained just 230 total yards. Minnesota scored a touchdown on a punt return, so Bowles’ unit actually only allowed 16 points out of the 23 their opponent scored on Sunday.

Yet Pro Bowl receiver Justin Jefferson suffered an ankle sprain early in the first quarter and didn’t return. And starting quarterback Kyler Murray looked very rusty in his first real action of the season after missing last week and most of Week 1 due to a concussion. He completed just 15-of-29 passes for 168 yards with one touchdown and one interception and  QB rating of 66.5.

I’ll wait and pass judgment on whether Tampa Bay’s defense has truly turned a corner or not when they play a much better offense. The Bucs face a couple of struggling offenses over the next three weeks in Green Bay (18.7 avg.) and Pittsburgh (17.7 avg.) with Dallas (29.3 avg.) in between. Let’s see what happens.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Fall To 0-4 With Loss To The Packers

The Bucs are now 0-3 and it looks like the season is careening out of control. Does Tampa Bay have the confidence to beat the visiting Green Bay Packers next week after three straight losses to start 2026, including the last two at home? That could be a tall task with an undrafted free agent rookie in Jalon Daniels under center. The Packers looked bad in a stunning 35-14 loss to the previously winless Falcons last Thursday night at Lambeau Field. They’ve had extra time to prepare, but can they fix their running game and run defense in time to play the Buccaneers?

One thing is certain, Packers fans will invade Raymond James Stadium next Sunday and could outnumber Bucs fans. Ray Jay could turn into Lambeau South. Expect to hear a lot of the “Go Pack Go!” chant in Tampa Bay next week. The Bucs are staring at 0-4 in the face.

PREDICTION 2. Zac Robinson Won’t Replace Todd Bowles As Head Coach

This prediction is a layup, especially right now. Tampa Bay’s offense is in such disarray right now under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson through three games that there is no way that Todd Bowles’ eventual replacement is an in-house option. Through three games, Robinson’s offense is scoring fewer points than Josh Grizzard’s did last year, and each game the unit looks worse. Robinson’s offense ranks 20th in scoring averaging 20.7 points per game and 27th in total yardage, averageing 279.3 yards per game.

Bucs OC Zac Robinson and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was promoted to replace Lovie Smith as head coach in 2016. The Bucs had the perfect in-house replacement for Bowles in hot-shot offensive play-caller Liam Coen, who produced a top 5 offense in 2024 – if the team wanted to make a switch at head coach after the 2024 season.

But Tampa Bay didn’t, and now Bowles is 8-12 in his last 20 games while Coen is 15-5 in Jacksonville, winning the AFC South last year with a 13-4 record. If the losing continues this year, Bowles will be fired after the season. The Glazers have fired all three coaches – Greg Schiano, Lovie Smith and Koetter – who have had back-to-back losing seasons since they took over as owners in 1995.