The Bucs are 0-3. Their starting quarterback has a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand and is set to miss a to-be-determined amount of time. The backup quarterback is an undrafted rookie who, until Sunday, had yet to take a snap in an NFL regular season game.

All of those are facts. Do you want another one?

The Bucs are only one game out of first place in the NFC South. That’s something that head coach Todd Bowles pointed out after Sunday’s 23-16 loss to the Vikings.

“The funny thing, we’re 0-3 and we’re a game out of first place,” he said. “We have to get our stuff together. We have to reach down and do more, to a coach, to a person, to a player. We’ve got to do more.”

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That’s really not funny, but it’s true. Bowles and this dysfunctional Bucs team are winless through three games, yet because the NFC South is also just a generally dysfunctional division, they’re only one game out of first place with 14 games — including all six of their divisional games — left in the regular season.

Yet it’s worth noting the entirety of Bowles’ message there. Tampa Bay has to actually get its “stuff” together and “do more” if there’s actually any legitimate chance of recovering from this hideous 0-3 start. No one will be backing this team to actually get it together, do more and make a run. The Bucs have played their way into being an afterthought around the league, and they’ve beaten this fan base down hard enough where there will be real discussions that start with, “Yeah, but what’s the point?”

Tampa Bay has gone 2-10 in its last 12 regular season games dating back to last season. This is a team that hasn’t won a game by more than one score since Oct. 26, 2025. That was a full 11 months ago. There’s little reason to believe that Bowles and this team can steer the ship in the right direction. It looks more like that proverbial ship they’re trying to steer is rapidly sinking.

No one will blame you if you roll your eyes at the prospect of the 0-3 Bucs picking themselves up off the mat and threatening to win their division (writer’s/editor’s note: I’m rolling my eyes as I’m writing this). But the fact remains that the NFC South is largely a joke, and 0-3 in this division somehow isn’t a death knell. The internal message at One Buc Place will be that, yes, everything is right there in front of them if they get themselves right and start to turn things around.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Does it get harder when you’re likely to be without your starting quarterback for some time? Yes. Is the idea of bouncing back and threatening for the division crown also made more difficult when you consider the road ahead features a desperate/hungry Packers team, a primetime game against a solid Cowboys team four days later and a matchup with the perennially tough Steelers after that? Certainly.

Is all of this hard to picture with the way the Bucs are playing and with the rest of the teams in this division, for all their faults, looking less broken than Todd Bowles’ group? Uh huh.

But…

Mathematically, Yes, These Bucs Are Right There In The NFC South Race

The NFC South has a reputation, and every single week, the Bucs, Panthers, Saints and Falcons do their absolute best to live up to it. This is a division constantly picked on as the NFL’s worst, and that’s fair. But this is also a division that makes little to no sense week to week, and that’s why the race always seems to come down to Week 17 or 18. It’s also why Todd Bowles is right to point out that if his team can pull it together, it’s not a long road back to the top of the division.

Week 3 of the 2026 season saw the NFC South live up to its billing again. After every single team in the NFC South lost in Week 1 and the Panthers and Saints separated themselves with impressive victories in Week 2, results were all over the board in Week 3. The Panthers and Saints fell all over themselves, while the previously dead-and-buried Falcons suddenly looked lively. And then there’s the 0-3 Bucs.

The result of all of that is a jumbled mess in the standings as the calendar flips to October.

The Falcons kicked off the weekend for the NFC South with a Thursday Night Football game at Lambeau Field against the 1-1 Packers. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. made his season debut and seemingly out of nowhere, Atlanta looked dangerous. After falling behind Green Bay 7-0, Kevin Stefanski’s team scored the next 27 points and went on to win 35-14.

Falcons HC Kevin Stefanski – Photo by: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penix was 18-of-25 for 256 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and his return did wonders for Drake London, who caught nine of his 10 targets for 194 yards to give Atlanta some balance on offense. That’s what Stefanski and Co. needed, as it let Bijan Robinson do his thing. The electric running back ran 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns to lead the way for a Falcons offense that put up 35 points and 498 yards after scoring 13 points in Week 1 and just three in Week 2.

With that, Stefanski got his first win as the Falcons’ head coach and pulled his team out of the NFC South cellar.

During the 1:00 p.m. window of games on Sunday, the Panthers were in Cleveland to face the same Browns team that upset the Bucs in Tampa last week. Surely, Dave Canales and his Carolina team would take care of business a week after a 31-point win over Atlanta, right?

Wrong.

The Browns took a 10-0 lead in the second quarter before the Panthers went on a 12-0 run with four Ryan Fitzgerald field goals. And even after Cleveland responded with a field goal to go up 13-12, Carolina came right back with a six-play, 72-yard touchdown drive to take an 18-13 lead with 4:25 to go.

Only the Panthers defense couldn’t hang on. They appeared to have a game-sealing interception of Deshaun Watson at one point, but a roughing the passer penalty prolonged the Browns’ drive. From there, Watson returned after missing one play and found Harold Fannin Jr. for the game-winning touchdown with 1:48 left. Bryce Young went on to throw an interception on the final Carolina drive, resulting in a 21-18 defeat at the hands of Cleveland.

Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. – Photo by: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Then came the 4:00 p.m. window, where the Saints had a chance to take sole possession of first place in the NFC South heading into October. They were at home against the surprisingly undefeated Raiders, and while it was back and forth for much of the game, there was a point when it looked like Kellen Moore’s team had taken control. New Orleans went up 27-16 with 5:46 left in the third quarter, but Las Vegas would have an answer.

The Raiders scored the final 19 points of the game to beat the Saints 35-27, getting themselves to 3-0 and sending the home team to 1-2 just a week after a big upset win over the Ravens.

Tyler Shough threw four touchdowns in the game, but he also threw an interception and lost two fumbles. A Juwan Johnson fumble on the final drive made it four turnovers for the New Orleans offense on the day, and that was the biggest reason Moore and Co. failed to capitalize on their chance to take first place in the division.

So, through three weeks of the 2026 NFL season and heading into October, here’s what the NFC South picture looks like:

NFC South Standings

Carolina Panthers – 1-2 (1-0 in NFC South)
New Orleans Saints – 1-2 (0-0 in NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons – 1-2 (0-1 in NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 0-3 (0-0 in NFC South)

So, yes, the dysfunctional Bucs – mathematically speaking – have a fighting chance in the dysfunctional NFC South.

Whether they’ll take advantage of it – and what it’s worth in the long run – is a different conversation and one for another day…