The calendar has flipped to October, yet the Bucs are still looking for their first victory of the 2026 NFL season. At 0-3, they’re back home this Sunday to host the 1-2 Packers at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay hasn’t started 0-4 since 2013, and Todd Bowles and Co. will be desperate to avoid dropping a fourth straight game ahead of a short week before Thursday Night Football in Week 5.

This is a battle between two teams that have woefully underachieved thus far this season, with Tampa Bay dropping its first three games and Green Bay being an overtime win over the New York Jets away from also sitting at 0-3. The Bucs will be doing everything they can to avoid 0-4 and seeing vibes sink even lower, but the Packers are in a tough spot themselves considering the strength of the NFC North and the lack of room for error teams in that division tend to have these days.

Of course, the big story for the Bucs in this one is that they’ll be without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has a dislocated thumb and will miss at least the next three games. That leaves undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels to step in and make his first NFL start. This will be the first time that Tampa Bay has had to start its backup quarterback since the 2018 season, which featured a see-saw between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. There were some games that year in which the backup proved to be a revelation and helped the Bucs to a win. The hope has to be that Daniels finds some of his own magic in his starting debut.

Off the back of a more general preview Thursday morning, let’s dive further into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in this Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay matchup in Week 4.

What Might Decide This Bucs-Packers Matchup?

This is a game that is largely going to come down to the trenches on both sides of the ball for both the Bucs and the Packers.

On Tampa Bay’s side of things, the offensive line needs to play better as a unit, avoid ill-timed penalties, open up lanes in the run game for Bucky Irving, Kenny Gainwell and perhaps Sean Tucker to take advantage of Green Bay’s 28th-ranked run defense and protect rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels. The Packers will be looking to rebound from a rough performance against the run last Thursday night for one, but they’ll also be looking to get to Daniels and keep him from settling in and getting comfortable in his first career start. Michael Penix Jr. was far too comfortable against this Green Bay defense last week, and it was costly.

On the flip side, the defensive front of the Bucs will be looking to keep making life difficult for the Packers offense. The offensive line in front of Jordan Love has been an unmitigated disaster thus far in 2026, and the team has been forced into signing some veterans off the street in hopes of cleaning things up both in pass protection (Love has been sacked eight times in three games) and in the run game, as Green Bay is dead last in the league in rushing through three games.

Bucs NT Vita Vea and Packers QB Jordan Love – Photo by: USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

For Todd Bowles‘ defense, the key is to win on first and second down, getting into the backfield to create negative plays the way the unit did relatively frequently against Minnesota in Week 3. That way, the Packers will face more third-and-long situations, which are tough to convert as it is and even tougher to manage when the offensive line is either flat-out bad or trying to come together as a makeshift unit on the fly.

Now, if Green Bay has it figured out up front and can give Love time (and especially if the run game adds even a slight level of balance to the offense), the 27-year-old signal-caller may be able to pick the Buccaneer defense apart the way Joe Burrow did in Week 1 and Deshaun Watson did at times in Week 2. The recipe for beating this Packers offense is out there, which means it’s on the Bucs to use it or the Packers themselves to nullify it.

Beyond the line of scrimmage, a lot of this game for Tampa Bay will also come down to the level of poise Daniels can show in his first-ever start at the NFL level. He’s set to become the first undrafted rookie quarterback to start a game in Bucs history, plus he’ll be the first rookie quarterback to start a game in the NFL this year. He started 45 games over six seasons at Kansas, so there is that. But can he settle in early and give the Buccaneer offense a better chance than Baker Mayfield did in the first three weeks?

Bucs QB Jalon Daniels – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

The answer to that question, in large part, will fall on offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Tampa Bay’s offensive operation has been a mess this season, and particularly in the last two weeks in losses to Cleveland and Minnesota. Running this offense with the rookie Daniels rather than a veteran in Mayfield, Robinson will need to get back to the basics and help his offensive line, the skill talent and especially the young quarterback get into positions where they can succeed.

The obvious approach in this one is to lean heavily on the ground game given Green Bay’s struggles with stopping the run. If Tampa Bay can find success on early downs and even get some explosives from its backs, it’ll make life that much easier for Daniels. Of course, Daniels can move well outside the pocket as well, so he’ll need to steal some yards when they’re there for the taking, too.

As for the Bucs defense, it goes beyond stopping the run and forcing Love to be special. This unit really needs to do a good job of bringing pressure on the quarterback, finishing with sacks and creating takeaways. As much as Robinson, the Buccaneer offensive line and the skill players can make life easier on Daniels, the defense can do its part, too, by creating turnovers and setting the rookie up with short fields to work with.

Given what everyone has seen them do in the first three weeks, there’s not a lot to cling onto as far as hope in the Bucs winning this Sunday and getting to 1-3 rather than falling to 0-4. But there is a path there against this Packers team that is also struggling. On offense? Run the football with success and set your rookie quarterback up to play distributor. Defensively? Stuff the run, get after the quarterback and win the turnover battle. If only it was that easy, right? But still, the path is there for Tampa Bay to win this game and stop the bleeding.

Key Players To Watch

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bucky Irving has been limited in practice this week with a glute injury, but he’ll need to be rested and ready in this game if the Bucs offense is going to have a chance under the direction of rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels. In the Packers’ 35-14 loss to the Falcons last week, they allowed Bijan Robinson to run for 194 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries. He averaged 6.7 yards per attempt in that game. Irving isn’t the same caliber of running back, to be clear, but if he can post his first 100-yard day of the season against this defense and find the end zone? That could give the offense a spark and give Tampa Bay a chance.

On the Bucs defense, it’ll be extremely important for the front to show up and expose this cobbled-together Packers offensive line. But there’s a particular onus on the interior to bring it. Green Bay’s guards have been the weak point of an already-bad O-line, and the likes of Vita Vea, A’Shawn Robinson, Calijah Kancey, Elijah Roberts and perhaps Elijah Simmons need to take advantage of that. Specifically, Kancey needs to use his quick get-off and outstanding speed to penetrate the backfield and wreak havoc. But the power of Vea and Robinson can do the trick, too.

Packers TE Tucker Kraft – Photo by: USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Vikings weren’t able to go to T.J. Hockenson enough to exploit the Bucs’ problems with covering the tight end. Credit to Tampa Bay for keeping him from being a factor, on the one hand, but Minnesota also missed an opportunity to get its talented tight end involved. The Packers aren’t likely to make that mistake. They’ve been waiting for Tucker Kraft to really get going this season, and Sunday could be the day that it happens. He had 13 touchdowns over 25 games between 2024 and 2025, and he’ll be a threat against this Buccaneer defense.

Lukas Van Ness is the highest-graded Packers defender among those who have played regular snaps, and he’ll be the No. 1 threat off the edge this Sunday with Micah Parsons still on injured reserve. Van Ness, a former Iowa Hawkeye, has 10 pressures, 2.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss through three games and will be looking to get after the Bucs’ rookie quarterback in this game. Fellow Iowa Hawkeye Tristan Wirfs will need to be at the top of his game once again on the left side, while Luke Goedeke may have to deal with Van Ness coming off the right side, too.