In the NFL, Cover 4 refers to a defensive coverage that aims to cover four deep zones on the field. Following that lead, I’m going to provide you with the same coverage of the Bucs – your favorite football team. Each Wednesday morning I’ll cover four areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a short film breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a look forward at what’s to come, and 4. a bit of fun.

Film: Bucs Are Avoiding Their Best Personnel Package

The Bucs have been primarily based out of 11 personnel this year. Over 70% of their plays have come with three receivers, one tight end and one running back on the field. That’s fourth in the NFL. Their success in this package has been lackluster at best. They are 30th in EPA/play (-0.203), 25th in success rate (38.5%) and 30th in yards per play (4.60).

Conversely, the team has been extremely successful out of 13 personnel (one receiver, one running back and three tight ends). They are first in EPA/play (+0.616), second in success rate (63.6%) and second in yards/play (9.45). Given that they operate so well out of 13 personnel you would think they are trying to get to it more, right? Well…

The Bucs rank 24th in the NFL in 13 personnel snaps with 11. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson ran 13 exactly three times this past Sunday against the Steelers. Those snaps went pretty well.

First snap of the game. Power out of 13p. Cam Heyward holds the double and keeps Patrick Queen clean with his eyes on Bucky. Limits the gain to three yards. https://t.co/mJSJZoq8Iz

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) October 21, 2026

The #Bucs came back to 13p in the 2nd quarter, this time with a counter run. Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke crush the double, Bredeson and Otton land their pulls and Sharp seals the outside. Explosive run is the result. https://t.co/qx90iY0TVZ

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) October 21, 2026

Last time the #Bucs go to 13p vs. the Steelers. This time in the 3rd quarter. And after two runs earlier in the game, Robinson dials up the team’s lone PA UC call of the game. Hit the Flood concept against C3 and Sharp quickly gets into the intermediate void for 21 yards. https://t.co/mCkzpbk6se

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) October 21, 2026

Those three plays were 4% of Tampa Bay’s total offensive plays. The team generated 38 yards on those three plays. That was 17% of the Bucs’ total yards on the day. In all three plays they faced a box count of eight or more Steelers defenders. That makes it a great opportunity to hit these play-action concepts like the Flood play above. And despite the extra traffic, their counter game can still win by isolating defenders on the wrong side of the play.

My hope is that the team leans more into this package – one that the rest of the league is moving more and more to – and one that Robinson himself has used back when he was in Atlanta. Last year the Falcons were eighth in the NFL in 13 personnel usage. Here’s hoping he reconnects with that more going forward.

Finance: Calijah Kancey’s Trade Value

The Bucs are increasingly likely to become sellers at the trade deadline. They have several players that could be on the trading block as they are good players on a team going nowhere fast with contracts that expire soon (either after this year or next). If general manager Jason Licht doesn’t foresee that player being someone they are going to re-sign it makes sense to get some value that can be used towards future teams.

Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey is under contract through 2027 after the Bucs exercised his fifth-year option this past offseason. They owe him just over $16 million between this year and next. Kancey’s impact on the field has been considerable. He is near the top of the league in get-off, puts offensive linemen in panic mode and generally disrupts offensive gameplans.

Bucs OLB David Walker, Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers and DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

His impact on the stat sheet has been anything but. He has four total tackles and no sacks. His 13 pressures trail just David Walker at the top of the team leaderboard. Teams would love to add his disruptive nature into the middle of their defensive fronts to add juice to their pass rush. If the Bucs were to make him available, there would be no shortage of suitors.

But I question whether the Bucs would actually make Kancey available. He’s not a pending free agent; his production value is down and there is a good chance Jason Licht sees him as a building block for the future.

During a recent episode of Pewter Report’s Bucs Cap Convo, I stated a fourth-round pick would be the likely compensation offered for Kancey. That’s something I think the team would turn down should such an offer materialize. But upon further reflection I think offers would be a bit stronger. Perhaps a fifth-round pick attached to the fourth-rounder, or even a late Day 2 pick as the headliner.

Forecast: The Bucs Will Be Sellers At The Deadline

At 1-5 the Bucs have to be honest about their short-term future. Despite the futility of the NFC South, they shouldn’t have delusions of grandeur about some great comeback this season. And so, they should be open to listening to offers on most of their roster. Players like Calijah Kancey above, Antoine Winfield Jr., Yaya Diaby and yes, even kicker Chase McLaughlin.

This doesn’t mean they should sell low on any player. If the return doesn’t match the impact the player could continue to provide this year, and importantly, the impact they may provide in the future, they should not just give away players. But listening to offers is how fair deals are eventually found.

Finding fair value for arguably the league’s best kicker is difficult. But you try.

I suspect the Bucs will trade away a player or two before the deadline. But players like Diaby, Kancey and McLaughlin will be difficult to come to terms on. But a key reserve might be an easier fit for trade compensation. A veteran tackle with starting experience like Justin Skule, or backup tight end Payne Durham, who has proven to be a strong run blocker could also be on the move this season.

Fun Fourth Down: Young Bucs Thriving

Despite the troubles the team as a whole is experiencing, not everything is doom and gloom with the Bucs roster. Several young players, many of them on the defense, are showing promise and point to brighter days ahead.

CB Jacob Parrish

Parrish is starting on the outside full time for the first time in his sophomore season and he is thriving. Despite opposing offenses targeting him early and often Parrish has more than held his own, playing bigger than his five-foot-10-inch frame would typically afford him. Parrish’s combination of speed, instincts, ball skills and competitive nature has led to a 58% catch rate allowed, 78.0 quarterback rating when targeted, and -0.4 EPA when targeted.

His nine pass break ups lead the NFL. Parrish is tied for fifth amongst cornerbacks in run stops with five. He has been a revelation and a core building block for the future.

Bucs CB Jacob Parrish – Photo by: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

OLB David Walker

The calls for Walker to start are growing louder. He’s a part-time player posting full-time production. Walker’s four sacks and 14 pressures lead the team. Walker has shown speed off the snap, bend, power and technique. When the scheme lends itself to him getting a free shot he takes full advantage.

The David Walker breakout is no fluke at this point after beating both Steelers tackles for a sack yesterday. He leads the entire NFL in pass-rush win-rate per @PFF (26.3%) https://t.co/QwH5WDVs1I

— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) October 19, 2026

Next week I will profile two more players who I think are ascending and will be core building blocks of next year’s team.