Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has played some of his best football this year. That play has had fans and analysts alike chanting “MVP.” With Mayfield and the Bucs widely believed to be waiting for the upcoming offseason to negotiate an extension, that MVP-level play could make for a large payday for the franchise quarterback, who has made the last two Pro Bowl teams.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Baker Mayfield’s Pace

After eight games Baker Mayfield has completed 172 of his 266 attempts for 1,919 yards and 13 touchdowns while only throwing two interceptions. He has 18 big time throws (BTT) and 13 turnover worthy plays (TWP), according to Pro Football Focus. He is also enjoying his best rushing season of his career with 158 yards on the ground while averaging 7.2 yards per carry.

Extrapolating out his current pace he would end the season with the following production:

• 63.94% comp rate
• 4,078 yards
• 28 TD
• 4 INT
• 7.1 yds/att
• 38 BTT
• 28 TWP
• 336 Rushing yards
• 15 Explosives

The five highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL by average salary per year (APY) are Dallas’ Dak Prescott ($60 million), Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow ($55 million), Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence ($55 million), Buffalo’s Josh Allen ($55 million) and Green Bay’s Jordan Love ($55 million). Based on his current level of play, which he has stacked on top of his 2023 and 2024 performances, Mayfield could join this echelon of quarterback contracts.

And there are legitimate cases that can be made that he could top them all.

The Bucs should have extended Mayfield this past offseason instead of doing a bandaid deal. He’s now entering market reset territory with his stellar play this season. https://t.co/un6giizuTj

— Daniel Salib (@salibdaniel1) October 6, 2025

Baker Mayfield’s Comps

Looking at just his pace this year, Baker Mayfield’s best comp is Josh Allen’s 2024 season, after which he signed a re-worked deal for his current APY, which is $55 million.

Looking over longer time thresholds, we get similarly impressive comps. Over two years:

And over three years:

Using these contracts as a range of potential outcomes for Mayfield creates a band of 16.8% (Kirk Cousins’ $35 million APY deal in 2022) to 19.7% (Allen’s 2024 deal). Applying that range to a hypothetical $305 million salary cap for 2026, creates an APY range of $51.24 million to $60.09 million. Applied to the current quarterback market that could put Mayfield anywhere from the 12th highest to the highest paid player at his position.

The midpoint of this range is $55.665 million, which would place him just a hair above the glut of quarterbacks hovered on the $55 million mark. Rounding for how the NFL likes to position contracts puts a four-year, $221 million deal on the table. It would make Mayfield the second-highest paid quarterback from an APY standpoint and position his deal exactly $1 million ahead of Jordan Love’s deal on the same time horizon.

Effective APY

This contract would be an extension and added onto the $40 million the Bucs are set to pay Mayfield next year on the last year of his current deal. The all-in contract would be five years for $261 million and have a “paper” APY of $52.2 million. And when you consider that effective APY as a percent of cap in the year signed, his deal would be team-friendly.

Of the 12 quarterbacks with APY’s of $50 million or more – including Mayfield’s hypothetical deal as outlined above – his impact on the cap measured by this metric would be 11th. This also doesn’t include possible extensions for Houston’s C.J. Stroud, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.

The Devil Is In The Details

While the fanfare always goes to the APY, the true measure of NFL contracts comes down to guarantees and cashflows. As mentioned previously, because of the similarities in length of deal, Jordan Love’s contract would be the benchmark. Love received just under 41% of his new money in the form of a full guarantee, with the $11 million from his previous deal also becoming fully guaranteed.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

If Baker Mayfield gets a similar new money guarantee plus the $40 million he is owed next year locked in his full guarantee would skyrocket past Love to $128.5 million. This isn’t a far-fetched proposition, as it would place him just eighth in this metric, just $200,000 behind Dak Prescott. For the total guarantees, Love was able to secure just over two-thirds of his new money, plus the existing money on his previous deal.

Applying that to Mayfield would create $187 million in total guarantees, which would place him seventh as the list currently stands.

The structure of such a deal could look something like this:

• 2026 – $55 million cash
  • $5 million in fully guaranteed base salary
  • $50 million in a fully guaranteed prorated roster bonus
• 2027 – $50 million cash
  • $10 million in fully guaranteed base salary
  • $40 million in a fully guaranteed prorated signing bonus
• 2028 – $52.5 million cash
  • $23.5 million in a fully guaranteed prorated base salary
  • $29 million in roster bonus that is guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guarantees on the 3rd day of the 2027 league year
• 2029 – $51.75 million in cash
  • $29.5 million roster bonus that fully guarantees on the 3rd day of the 2028 league year
  • $22.25 million non-guaranteed base salary
• 2030 – $51.75 million in cash – all in the form of non-guaranteed base salary

Mayfield’s cap hits under this structure would be:

• 2026 – $36.975 million – a $12 million reduction on what his cap hit stands to be under his current contract
• 2027 – $39.975 million
• 2028 – $59.275 million
• 2029 – $52.25 million
• 2030 – $75.50 million

This would leave the team with a $37.3 million dead cap hit in 2031. This would be effectively an additional two-year commitment from the team, tying them to their franchise quarterback through 2028 before a 2029 post-June 1 cut could net them cap savings if things went south.

But make no mistake, Mayfield has earned this extension. And when the eventual deal is announced, the insiders who report it will focus on the impressive APY, yet bear in mind the deal will be fair for both sides.

Jon Gruden Has An Interesting Comparison For Bucs QB Baker Mayfield

See what legendary Bucs head coach Jon Gruden had to say about Baker Mayfield on his recent appearance on the Pewter Report Podcast. Click the video below: