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Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo answers your questions from the @PewterReport Twitter account this week in the Bucs Mailbag. Submit your question to the Bucs Mailbag each week via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag. Here are the Bucs questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.
QUESTION: Hi Josh, is it ” Baker Mayfield or Bust?” Are there any other legitimate options at QB for the Buccaneers that could keep them as the NFC South champions?
Well … Jason Licht and the team answered that question, didn’t they?
Baker Mayfield set career highs in completions (364), passing yards (4,045) and touchdowns (28) while leading the Bucs to their third consecutive division title and a Wild Card round win. He also made his first Pro Bowl where he was named the Offensive MVP.
Mayfield is set to earn base salaries of $30 million in 2024 and 2025. The first year of the contract is fully guaranteed and $20 million of Mayfield’s $30 million in the second year is guaranteed. He stands to earn $40 million in base salary in year three of the contract, which is not guaranteed.
With the Bucs very luke warm on Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, who turns 36 this year and is coming off a torn Achilles, Mayfield was the best option in free agency for Tampa Bay. And there is a feeling that Mayfield might have been the best quarterback in free agency had he hit the market.
QUESTION: I know we want the big names back first, but one I don’t hear anyone talking about is Chase McLaughlin. Should we be worried about him hitting free agency?
Bucs K Chase McLaughlin – Photo by: USA Today
ANSWER: Chase McLaughlin had one of the greatest seasons by a kicker in Bucs history last year. Hitting 29-of-31 field goal attempts for a 93.5% success rate, McLaughlin ranked tied for seventh in the NFL in make rate. Even more impressively he was 7-of-8 from beyond 50 yards. That ability to hit from downtown was a trait his predecessor Ryan Succop just did not have in his bag.
Houston kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn just re-signed for three-years and $15.9 million at an average of $5.3 million per year. That makes him the fourth-highest paid kicker by APY. Fairbairn’s 2023 was a bit better than McLaughlin’s as he hit on 27-of-28 attempts (96.4%), while converting 5-of-6 from beyond 50. Fairbairn also has a longer track record of success than McLaughlin as his career conversion rate is 87.1% to McLaughlin’s 82.8%.
McLaughlin is coming off of a one-year, prove-it deal and will likely be looking for the stability of a multi-year pact. The Bucs went a similar route with Succop in 2021, signing him to a three-year, $12 million deal. Accounting for salary cap inflation that same deal would eclipse Fairbairn’s deal by $600,000. I doubt this happens but fair market value for McLaughlin is likely somewhere around $13.5 to $15 million over three years.
Bucs general manager Jason Licht spoke about McLaughlin in Indianapolis during the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, saying that the team was going to reach out to McLaughlin. Licht and company have a long track record of allowing players to test free agency while still eventually securing their services. They did so with both cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean as well as linebacker Lavonte David.
The team most likely has a fair offer on the table with an agreement that McLaughlin can find if the market has a different number for him. But the Bucs have shown at this point they have a good handle on the market value of their players.
QUESTION: Looking at our draft position I think the edge rushers available in free agency would be better than any edge rusher that would likely fall to us at No. 26. Are you hearing anything about the Bucs potentially spending any money on that position in free agency?
Texans DE Jonathan Greenard and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today
The top of the edge rusher class was seriously depleted once the franchise tag period passed. Josh Allen of the Jaguars and Brian Burns of the Panthers both got the tag. The next tier of edge rushers includes Danielle Hunter of the Vikings, Jonathan Greenard of the Texans, Bryce Huff of the Jets and Za’Darius Smith of the Browns.
Hunter is probably the only one that group that will command a price tag north of $20 million per year, while the other three should come in between $15 and $19 million.
The Bucs have a glaring need for an alpha outside linebacker. They recently released Shaq Barrett after a successful five-year run that included a sack title in 2019 (19.5) and a Super Bowl in 2020. Rookie Yaya Diaby had a promising rookie campaign, but is still a great deal away from being a dominant presence who can take on double teams and elevate those around him.
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Anthony Nelson, Markees Watts and Jose Ramirez represent solid depth with some upside, but none are likely to ascend into that role.
This year’s draft class has talented edge rushers, but they require a lot of projection and development for them to be that guy that the Bucs truly need. It would make sense that the Bucs might want to pursue someone like Huff or Greenard.
But the truth is Jason Licht rarely wades into those waters. Yes, he signed Barrett to a big deal in 2021. But that wasn’t until after he got Barrett initially on the cheap for just $5 million in 2019 and then had him play under the franchise tag in 2020.
Licht has doled out just two huge deals to street free agents in the last several years. One was for Tom Brady who was the undisputed GOAT of all quarterbacks. The second was to Ryan Jensen in 2019. Jensen was considered one of the best centers in the game at that time.
Licht also said in Indianapolis that the team was focused on re-signing its own free agents. Specifically, he talked about Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. The Bucs have followed through with those having re-signed both.
Other priorities Licht listed were Antoine Winfield Jr. (franchise tagged), Lavonte David and Chase McLaughlin. Adding all of those contracts up will create a big dent in the Bucs salary cap space. While they can create more room and would be able to afford some of those free agents, the chances are low that they will.
The more likely scenario is that the Bucs try to re-create the Barrett magic of 2019. Be on the lookout for more value options like Josh Uche or Andrew Van Ginkel. Uche had just three sacks last year, but 11 in 2022. Over that two-year span he maintained an 18.2% pressure rate. He will most likely command a one-year, $8.5 million contract.
Van Ginkel, who had 91.9 Pro Football Focus grade last year, which ranked seventh in the league, is a situational pass rusher who had a career-high six sacks last year. He has developed into a linebacker/edge ruhser hybrid who could net a two-year deal for $15 million.
QUESTION: Will the Bucs be fiscally responsible in free agency or will be dishing out stupid money instead?
Bucs WR Mike Evans and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Scott Reynolds/PR
The “stupid” money the Bucs have and will be dishing out will go to familiar faces. They have already re-upped with prolific receiver Mike Evans for two years and $41 million. And on Sunday it was announced they had come to terms with quarterback Baker Mayfield for three years and $100 million.
Add in the $17,123,000 franchise tag for Antoine Winfield Jr. and the likely $7-$7.5 million for Lavonte David and you can see the dollars are really adding up (approximately $165 million).
Due to all of the investments the team has to make to “run it back” there will be a tighter leash on external spending. Look for the team to make fiscally responsible decisions on external free agents at the safety, linebacker, running back and interior offensive line. The good news for the team is that all of these positions look to be very deep which should allow the Bucs to find good value on a short-term deal for several players.
There were a few other questions, but they were also related to the possibility of the Bucs not retaining Mayfield and so they were rendered moot with Sunday’s breaking news.
