Here’s an update on the negotiations between the Bucs and quarterback Baker Mayfield: Both sides are still not close to agreeing to terms on a contract extension.

Pewter Report has spoken with multiple sources recently and while there has been some progress since talks began in earnest at the NFL Scouting Combine last week, the Bucs and Mayfield’s camp were very far apart to begin with.

How far? Nearly $20 million apart.

Pewter Report is not sure which side made the initial offer – whether it was the Bucs or Mayfield’s agent, Jack Mills. But Mayfield’s camp opened negotiations with an offer rumored to be at $44 million per year. The thinking there is that Mayfield is a better quarterback than New York Giants starter Daniel Jones, who makes an average of $40 million per season.

Tampa Bay is rumored to have either countered – or started – with an offer of $25 million per year, which is the Geno Smith contract. After a career turnaround season in Seattle in 2022, replacing Russell Wilson as the starter, Smith signed a three-year, $75 million contract extension with the Seahawks.

That’s a big gap – a $19 million chasm, to be exact.

Talks Are Progressing Between Bucs, Baker Mayfield

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield at the Pro Bowl – Photo by: USA Today

Bucs fans shouldn’t be alarmed by those initial offers from Baker Mayfield’s agent and the team. That’s typical in negotiations.

The player wants a high salary and starts off negotiations with an offer that is nearly unreasonable, and then the team comes in with more of a low-ball offer to counter it. Both the agent and the team have their own set of player comparisons or “comps” to help state their respective cases.

What almost always happens is that both sides inevitably meet in the middle and a compromise is worked out. The side with the most amount of leverage typically prevails and the “middle ground” winds up being closer to that particular side.

The median or mean between the two numbers – $25 million and $44 million – is $34.5 million. Pewter Report has maintained that Mayfield would likely receive a new contract worth at least $30 million. And a new deal worth $34.5 million per year would actually favor the Bucs because it would keep the team away from the $40 million level that Mayfield’s camp will be pushing due to the Daniel Jones contract.

An easy counter for Bucs assistant general manager Mike Greenberg to make is that L.A.’s Matthew Stafford and Dallas’ Dak Prescott also make an average of $40 million per year. Both Stafford and Prescott are more accomplished quarterbacks than either Jones or Mayfield. Prescott led the NFL in touchdown passes in 2023 with 36 and is a three-time Pro Bowler. Stafford is a two-time Pro Bowler and a Super Bowl champion.

The Bucs and Mayfield’s agent have made some progress from their initial talks in Indianapolis, but a deal does not appear to be imminent. There is a chance that Mayfield could hit the open market once free agency begins next week, but Tampa Bay is trying to avoid that by getting a deal done for Sunday. There are still several days to go before the open negotiation period of free agency begins on Monday, March 11 at noon, and big deals tend to get done at or near the deadline.

Yet things can turn around on a dime after one just conversation, as was the case Sunday night when the Bucs and wide receiver Mike Evans suddenly agreed to terms. That could happen with Tampa Bay and Mayfield at any moment, too.

Baker Mayfield Has A Lot To Consider As Free Agency Draws Near

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The good news for the Bucs and for Baker Mayfield is that there is mutual interest in getting a deal done so that Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback can remain in red and pewter. However, as Diana Russini has reported – and Pewter Report has confirmed – Mayfield won’t necessarily give the Bucs a hometown discount. There are three primary reasons why.

First, Mayfield has reportedly lost $12 million in a fraudulent investment scheme. That matter is in the courts, but even if Mayfield prevails, there is no guarantee that he could get back some or all of his money.

Second, Mayfield signed a one-year, prove-it deal with Tampa Bay for $4 million last year for the opportunity to start and resurrect his career and put himself in position to make another big contract. He wound up making just under $8 million with incentives, but that was still about $12 million below average NFL starter money, which is around $20 million per year.

So in essence, Mayfield could theorize that he’s “down” $24 million in his mind due to the money lost in the fraud and the lost income from a year ago. That brings up the third reason why Mayfield would want to push for the most money he can get in free agency this year – his earnings window is closing.

Some quarterbacks continue to start and earn Top 10 QB money into their mid-to-late 30s. But plenty of other quarterbacks – including several former first-rounders – have lost their status as a starter due to sub-par play and the league looks at them as backups. That’s the case with the likes of Blaine Gabbert, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Mitch Trubisky and others.

Mayfield turns 29 in April and this could be his last big contract. If his play in Tampa Bay takes a turn for the worse in 2024 or beyond, he could join the ranks of those former first-rounders as nothing more than a backup quarterback. Mayfield was perilously close to earning that distinction in 2022 as he went from being the face of the franchise in Cleveland as the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 to a journeyman who was jettisoned to Carolina and the Los Angeles Rams prior to joining Tampa Bay in 2023.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and LT Tristan Wirfs at 2024 Pro Bowl – Photo by: USA Today

How many years will Mayfield make in excess of $30 million? Will it be two more years, three years, four years – or more?

What does work in the Bucs’ favor is that the team has made it known to Mayfield it wants him back, and he is beloved by his teammates. Aiding Tampa Bay’s cause is the fact that the team hired Liam Coen, a former Rams passing game coordinator who worked with Mayfield in 2022, as the new offensive coordinator. His system will be very similar to Dave Canales’ playbook.

Working against the Bucs is that Mayfield could be considered the top quarterback in free agency – even over Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, who turns 36 this year and is coming off a torn Achilles injury. There is a good crop of QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft, but the top three – USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels – are poised to go in the first three selections. The next tier of quarterbacks – Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix – have talent, but also come with question marks.

As Pewter Report reported earlier this week, Atlanta and Minnesota are rumored to be interested in Mayfield if he hits free agency next week, and possibly New England, too.

There Is More To This Deal Than Just The AAV

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Because Baker Mayfield is still relatively young at almost 29, and could still be in his prime between the next four to six years, there is a lot to consider aside from just the AAV (average annual value). The length of the deal and the amount of guaranteed money is just as important to both sides as it is the average salary.

Mayfield was on four teams within a calendar year, going from Cleveland to Carolina to L.A. to Tampa Bay. That’s one thing when it’s just Mayfield, his wife Emily and their dog. But the Mayfields are expecting their first child later in March and would love to plant some roots and go from living in a condominium to a house.

A long-term deal with more guaranteed money is what Mayfield is after, while Tampa Bay would be more interested in a shorter contract with less guaranteed money.

Mayfield had a great season in 2023, passing for over 4,000 yards for the first time and throwing 28 touchdowns with just 12 interceptions. Is that what the Bucs can expect from Mayfield every year? Is that Mayfield’s ceiling or is there more room to grow those statistics with another year in Tampa Bay?

Or was that Mayfield’s best season and he’s more apt to have a roller coaster career with the Bucs like he had with the Browns? A shorter contract with less guaranteed money would safeguard the Bucs in case that happens and the team wanted to move on from Mayfield before his contract is up.

There is a lot for both sides to consider, and that’s why this deal has taken a while to get to this point – and why both sides aren’t close just yet.